India 2014 - Results

[covermyeyes]

The shock of the election is the loss of INC minister Sachin Pilot from Ajmer in Rajasthan. Young and popular, he was recently declared to have been the best performing MP in the country by a news channel. In fact, journalists often talked about him as a potential challenger to the Gandhi family for leadership of the party.

Nothing short of a massive Hindu consolidation could have unseated him. The BJP candidate was unpopular for allegedly favouring members of his own Jat caste over others like Rajputs. Both these communities dominate the state and have a traditional rivalry. A third pole of state politics is the Gurjars, of whom Pilot is a leader, but he has never engaged in this kind of ethnic politics. His success last time around depended on his reputation as a young and dynamic leader, and from votes from a wide spectrum of communities. Subsequently, he had done a lot of work in Ajmer, having got built an university, airport, hundreds of schools and institutions, and all other kinds of infrastructure. This is impressive to say the least.

So you will understand me when I say this result makes a mockery of the BJP's alleged developmental agenda. They generally present themselves as great unifiers, as wanting to transcend caste and ethnic divides by emphasizing development and economic growth. Here we have case of a performing MP being unseated by a mindless appeal to emotion. The BJP did transcend caste and ethnic barriers this time, but only because it seems that the Jats and Rajputs voted as Hindu's. They have won in UP and Bihar mainly because of this.

Hindu Nationalism 1
Development        0

[covermyeyes]

JD(U) goes from 20 to 2. 

Hindu nationalism 2
Development 0

BJD actually ended up with 18 which is 4 more than in 20009.  So BJD managed to blunt the BJP Modi wave in a place where BJP does have some strength.  Is is interesting that BJD managed to beat back Modi but JD(U) did not in Bihar.

Hindu nationalism 2
Development 1


Might be a bit too simplistic. But that's my reading of the situation.

[jaichind]

SP and BSP wiped out in UP.

Hindu nationalism 3
Development 2

It is a victory for both development in the sense that SP and BSP are out as both pretty much run mafia like regimes but also a victory for Hindu consolidation over caste consolidation.

[covermyeyes]

SP and BSP wiped out in UP.

Hindu nationalism 3
Development 2

It is a victory for both development in the sense that SP and BSP are out as both pretty much run mafia like regimes but also a victory for Hindu consolidation over caste consolidation.

The BJP cadres of UP are the Hindu nationalists par excellence. Do you really think this can be interpreted as a sign of maturity in Indian politics? I am happy in one sense that Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati (leaders of SP and BSP) got what was coming for them. But, at the same time, the victory of the BJP negates it. So, I would argue for Hindu Nationalism 3 and development 1 still.

[covermyeyes]

In a perfect world, the Gandhi family would agree to end their dominance of the party and share the power of the INC machinery with those who seek to stop the BJP, leading to some kind of merger with the BJD in Orrisa. The founder of the BJD, Biju Patnaik, was one of the best  leaders of the INC when he was still apart of it. His son Naveen Patnaik (the current leader) is a natural Congressman as well. True social democrats unlike the ilk that have clustered around the Gandhi prestige and power.  

[EPG]

It's interesting to consider that most countries with FPTP, we typically see little proliferation of minor parties; but India has piles of them.

Has their ever been any move to reform the electoral system?

One presumes it's to do with linguistic, religious and caste fragmentation, federalism, and historic weakness in transport/communications, making returns to scale of parties very small.

[jaichind]

The very impressive number of seats for the NDA based on a much less impressive vote share is of course of good distribution of NDA votes.  But looking at results in Bihar, Assam, and UP it is also clear that Modi, weather he planned it or not, was able to provoke a precieved Muslim consolidation against BJP.  This in turn provoked a Hindu consolidation.  In fact during the campaign Muslim leaders took pains to make sure they do not talk about consolidation against Modi for fears it will provoke such a Hindu consolidation.  It seems they lost on both sides.  Not talking openly about it makes it hard to coordinate between different opponents of the BJP in multi-cornered contests as well as to make clear the threat Modi presented to minorities in India.  But not talking about did not stop the Hindu consolidation which pushed NDA to 336 seats.

[jaichind]

As for what INC should do, just like the DPJ after the 2012 Japan elections, there is no time to waste.  There must be a generational shift to younger leaders and party cannot just count on the Gandhi's the deliver the votes.  I would also push for alliances with TMC in WB, DMK in TN, BJD in Orissa, try to go for a grand alliance of RJD JD(U) and INC in Bihar, alliance with AUDF in Assam, alliance with AAP in Delhi/Punjab/Harayana, alliance with BSP in MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgrah, andalliance with JD(S) in Karnataka.  There are no easy options in UP.  The best I can think of is alliance with BSP but that is fraught with great danger.

[ag]

BSP and DMK both wiped out.  BSP lost all 21 seats and DMK lost all 18 seats.  JD(U) goes from 20 to 2.   BJD actually ended up with 18 which is 4 more than in 20009.  So BJD managed to blunt the BJP Modi wave in a place where BJP does have some strength.  Is is interesting that BJD managed to beat back Modi but JD(U) did not in Bihar.

Actually, if I am getting it right, BJD is on track to getting 20 seats. Or is the ECI webpage wrong?

[covermyeyes]

As for what INC should do, just like the DPJ after the 2012 Japan elections, there is no time to waste.  There must be a generational shift to younger leaders and party cannot just count on the Gandhi's the deliver the votes.  I would also push for alliances with TMC in WB, DMK in TN, BJD in Orissa, try to go for a grand alliance of RJD JD(U) and INC in Bihar, alliance with AUDF in Assam, alliance with AAP in Delhi/Punjab/Harayana, alliance with BSP in MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgrah, andalliance with JD(S) in Karnataka.  There are no easy options in UP.  The best I can think of is alliance with BSP but that is fraught with great danger.

The one problem is that the younger leaders all happened to lose this time around. Sachin Pilot, as I've mentioned, was one of them. Milind Deora is another from Mumbai. Jyotirao Scindia survived in Guna in MP (which the BJP swept like Rajasthan) but I am not sure if he can lead the party as a whole.

Also, some of the alliances could work, but its improbable to think these parties are going to ally with the INC. They sense blood. The AIUDF leader is delusional enough to think he can turn Assam into a permanent battleground between Muslim AIUDF and Hindu BJP.  TMC and BSP leaders are megalomaniacs. BJD leader is on good terms with Sonia Gandhi, but he has no reason to feel threatened by the BJP. In Bihar, RJD and JDU would never agree to work with one another, and the INC will have to choose one or the other. JDS in Karnanata is a natural opponent of the INC. They will never ally.

It would be great if somehow the BSP got nuked and all the dalits come back within the Congress fold.

Probably what will happen now is that Sonia Gandhi will slowly cede power to her daughter Priyanka. She will represent the continuation of dynastic rule. But, she is also far more capable than her brother, and her entry late in the campaign is said to have been the only thing that rattled Modi and the BJP.

[jaichind]

BSP and DMK both wiped out.  BSP lost all 21 seats and DMK lost all 18 seats.  JD(U) goes from 20 to 2.   BJD actually ended up with 18 which is 4 more than in 20009.  So BJD managed to blunt the BJP Modi wave in a place where BJP does have some strength.  Is is interesting that BJD managed to beat back Modi but JD(U) did not in Bihar.

Actually, if I am getting it right, BJD is on track to getting 20 seats. Or is the ECI webpage wrong?

NDTV has BJD 18 and NDTV has BJD at 19.  Since Orissa counts slow (it is one of the most backward states) this might be a race condition in change of leads.

[covermyeyes]

Also, the AAP will never ally with the INC. They might agree to work together on some level, but their supporters and activists loath the INC more than the BJP. Acrimony between AAP and the BJP only developed because the BJP was feeling threatened by them after the Delhi state elections few months ago.

[covermyeyes]

BSP and DMK both wiped out.  BSP lost all 21 seats and DMK lost all 18 seats.  JD(U) goes from 20 to 2.   BJD actually ended up with 18 which is 4 more than in 20009.  So BJD managed to blunt the BJP Modi wave in a place where BJP does have some strength.  Is is interesting that BJD managed to beat back Modi but JD(U) did not in Bihar.

Actually, if I am getting it right, BJD is on track to getting 20 seats. Or is the ECI webpage wrong?

NDTV has BJD 18 and NDTV has BJD at 19.  Since Orissa counts slow (it is one of the most backward states) this might be a race condition in change of leads.

Good news. The BJP has broken through in Assam and made ground in Bengal. Kerala and Orissa are the silver lining of the election.

[jaichind]

You make very good points, covermyeyes.  My ideas more stem from if there is a perception that these BJP gains are permeate and became the natural ruling party much like INC was back in the 1950s to 1980s.  If so many of these anti-INC traditions of these various regional parties will decline and embrace INC as the way to stop the BJP.  Of course Modi might stumble and then these various parties will see no great benefit to go with INC.  BJD, AIADMK, and TMC of course are examples on how Modi can be stopped so if Modi is proved to be mortal then what I think INC should be doing will not be possible.  If not then it might be possible it no necessary.

[covermyeyes]

You make very good points, covermyeyes.  My ideas more stem from if there is a perception that these BJP gains are permeate and became the natural ruling party much like INC was back in the 1950s to 1980s.  If so many of these anti-INC traditions of these various regional parties will decline and embrace INC as the way to stop the BJP.  Of course Modi might stumble and then these various parties will see no great benefit to go with INC.  BJD, AIADMK, and TMC of course are examples on how Modi can be stopped so if Modi is proved to be mortal then what I think INC should be doing will not be possible.  If not then it might be possible it no necessary.

I fear that it will take at least another cycle of elections before any of the leaders come to their senses.

[ag]

BSP and DMK both wiped out.  BSP lost all 21 seats and DMK lost all 18 seats.  JD(U) goes from 20 to 2.   BJD actually ended up with 18 which is 4 more than in 20009.  So BJD managed to blunt the BJP Modi wave in a place where BJP does have some strength.  Is is interesting that BJD managed to beat back Modi but JD(U) did not in Bihar.

Actually, if I am getting it right, BJD is on track to getting 20 seats. Or is the ECI webpage wrong?

NDTV has BJD 18 and NDTV has BJD at 19.  Since Orissa counts slow (it is one of the most backward states) this might be a race condition in change of leads.

NDTV has had lots of errors during the night - the aggregate picture was right, but they sometimes were clearly at odds with ECI reporting (admittedly, that one was a tad slow). Anyways, looking at ECI page, most Orissa constituencies have declared - including the two with the tightest margins - and in favor of BJD. There are still a couple reasonably close, but the closest one that is still counting is Bargarh, and the margin there is close to 12 thousand votes - a bit high to overturn at this stage.

[jaichind]

It seems BJP won Ladakh in J&K as part of their 3 seats they won in J&K, a seat where they have no business winning.  What took place was the incumbent MP who was a JKN rebel and won in 2009 running against the JKN backed INC candidate joined BJP and ran for re-election beating the JKN backed INC candidate.  Ladakh is mostly Buddhist and Muslim.  The JKN rebel that joined BJP himself, Hassan Khan, is Muslim.   

[jaichind]

NDA 336 (38.46%) UPA 59 (23.91%).   UPA lost 2 more seats but gain a bit in terms of vote share and NDA continues to lose vote share.

[ag]

An interesting question is, how bad is this for the NDA partners. On one hand, of course, they performed well in this election - but they are now completely unnecessary for the BJP for the next five years. Is Modi going to share power and money with them? which jobs will they get?

[Sbane]

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-why-do-liberal-intellectuals-hate-narendra-modi-1989064

Posting this here because I didn't want to start a new topic. Please move it if you wish.

Interesting article. Even if you hold Narendra Modi personally responsible for the deaths of the Gujarat riot victims, why not hold the socialist politicians responsible for economic policies that have led to the death of countless Indians?

[ag]

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-why-do-liberal-intellectuals-hate-narendra-modi-1989064

Posting this here because I didn't want to start a new topic. Please move it if you wish.

Interesting article. Even if you hold Narendra Modi personally responsible for the deaths of the Gujarat riot victims, why not hold the socialist politicians responsible for economic policies that have led to the death of countless Indians?

Sometimes, one has to accept that there may be radical difference in moral foundations between people. I think, we have reached this point. I am simply not willing to explain certain things. It is enough to simply state that we, probably, have very different notions of what is decent and morally acceptable with the author of that article - or with whoever finds it "interesting". I am, frankly, not interested. And, mercifully, at least in this case, I have nothing personally at stake here: it is not my friends and family who will be killed.

[Sbane]

Why did AAP do best in the Punjab?

From what I am seeing, congress did best in Hindu areas and BJP-SAD did best in Sikh areas. I do believe Hindus in Punjab are somewhat of a swing vote with a lean towards congress.

[Sbane]

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-why-do-liberal-intellectuals-hate-narendra-modi-1989064

Posting this here because I didn't want to start a new topic. Please move it if you wish.

Interesting article. Even if you hold Narendra Modi personally responsible for the deaths of the Gujarat riot victims, why not hold the socialist politicians responsible for economic policies that have led to the death of countless Indians?

Sometimes, one has to accept that there may be radical difference in moral foundations between people. I think, we have reached this point. I am simply not willing to explain certain things. It is enough to simply state that we, probably, have very different notions of what is decent and morally acceptable with the author of that article - or with whoever finds it "interesting". I am, frankly, not interested. And, mercifully, at least in this case, I have nothing personally at stake here: it is not my friends and family who will be killed.

Malnutrition, illiteracy and poor access to healthcare are just as much of a tragedy as a riot that kills innocent thousands. Of course I also don't think Modi is responsible for the riot. If I thought he gave the orders for the riots, I would not be fine with him being PM. And to make it clear, I am more a BJP supporter (at least in this election) than a Modi supporter.

[Sbane]

The shock of the election is the loss of INC minister Sachin Pilot from Ajmer in Rajasthan. Young and popular, he was recently declared to have been the best performing MP in the country by a news channel. In fact, journalists often talked about him as a potential challenger to the Gandhi family for leadership of the party.

Nothing short of a massive Hindu consolidation could have unseated him. The BJP candidate was unpopular for allegedly favouring members of his own Jat caste over others like Rajputs. Both these communities dominate the state and have a traditional rivalry. A third pole of state politics is the Gurjars, of whom Pilot is a leader, but he has never engaged in this kind of ethnic politics. His success last time around depended on his reputation as a young and dynamic leader, and from votes from a wide spectrum of communities. Subsequently, he had done a lot of work in Ajmer, having got built an university, airport, hundreds of schools and institutions, and all other kinds of infrastructure. This is impressive to say the least.

So you will understand me when I say this result makes a mockery of the BJP's alleged developmental agenda. They generally present themselves as great unifiers, as wanting to transcend caste and ethnic divides by emphasizing development and economic growth. Here we have case of a performing MP being unseated by a mindless appeal to emotion. The BJP did transcend caste and ethnic barriers this time, but only because it seems that the Jats and Rajputs voted as Hindu's. They have won in UP and Bihar mainly because of this.

Hindu Nationalism 1
Development        0

This is an idiotic post, to say the least. Pilot lost because he was in the wrong party in this election, not because he supported development. I have no doubt that many great congress politicians lost because they were supporting Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. Hopefully the good ones will gain their seats back in later elections while the rotten, old school socialists will be relegated to the dust bin of history.

The BJP did not win these many seats because of Hindutva, they won because the congress party lost. This election was caused entirely by congress. If they had actually followed Manmohan Singh's advice, the country would not be in such a bad situation and these election results would not have come to pass. Instead, they listened to the socialist nonsense of Sonia Gandhi. If Hindutva was so potent, the BJP would win every election, and we both know that is not the case.

[ag]

http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/standpoint-why-do-liberal-intellectuals-hate-narendra-modi-1989064

Posting this here because I didn't want to start a new topic. Please move it if you wish.

Interesting article. Even if you hold Narendra Modi personally responsible for the deaths of the Gujarat riot victims, why not hold the socialist politicians responsible for economic policies that have led to the death of countless Indians?

Sometimes, one has to accept that there may be radical difference in moral foundations between people. I think, we have reached this point. I am simply not willing to explain certain things. It is enough to simply state that we, probably, have very different notions of what is decent and morally acceptable with the author of that article - or with whoever finds it "interesting". I am, frankly, not interested. And, mercifully, at least in this case, I have nothing personally at stake here: it is not my friends and family who will be killed.

Malnutrition, illiteracy and poor access to healthcare are just as much of a tragedy as a riot that kills innocent thousands. Of course I also don't think Modi is responsible for the riot. If I thought he gave the orders for the riots, I would not be fine with him being PM. And to make it clear, I am more a BJP supporter (at least in this election) than a Modi supporter.

I should, probably, add, that demagogy is a time-honored practice, but I have a pretty low tolerance level for it.