India 2014 - Results

[covermyeyes]

INC will recover.

BJP has a huge mandate and needless to say, also huge expectations now.

Oh, I don't disagree. The (electoral) danger of an absolute victory is absolute responsibility.

Which we in India might not get. A huge mandate could embolden the BJP to launch itself headfirst on contentious issues like article 370 and Muslim personal law.

[covermyeyes]

Have the INC ever done this badly in Assam?

Never, not even in 1977, when the INC was wiped out in most parts of India.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which we in India might not get. A huge mandate could embolden the BJP to launch itself headfirst on contentious issues like article 370 and Muslim personal law.

I meant absolute responsibility in the eyes of the electorate for all errors, mistakes and cock-ups. I don't see this government acting particularly responsibly...

[covermyeyes]

Which we in India might not get. A huge mandate could embolden the BJP to launch itself headfirst on contentious issues like article 370 and Muslim personal law.

I meant absolute responsibility in the eyes of the electorate for all errors, mistakes and cock-ups. I don't see this government acting particularly responsibly...

I would expect lots of infighting in BJP now. Quite a few of their leaders fear that Modi will be their Indira Gandhi. In fact, it started yesterday, with reports that BJP stalwart Sushma Swaraj was politicking to undermine Modi even before the results were announced.

[Boris]

Which we in India might not get. A huge mandate could embolden the BJP to launch itself headfirst on contentious issues like article 370 and Muslim personal law.

I meant absolute responsibility in the eyes of the electorate for all errors, mistakes and cock-ups. I don't see this government acting particularly responsibly...

I would expect lots of infighting in BJP now. Quite a few of their leaders fear that Modi will be their Indira Gandhi. In fact, it started yesterday, with reports that BJP stalwart Sushma Swaraj was politicking to undermine Modi even before the results were announced.

Where do you get this information? Is stuff like this reported in English-language media?

[Famous Mortimer]

On the subject of Kashmir, it looks like the National Conference got wiped out by the People's Democratic Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Naga Peoples Front now have two seats: they gained Outer Manipur from Congress, it seems.

[covermyeyes]

Which we in India might not get. A huge mandate could embolden the BJP to launch itself headfirst on contentious issues like article 370 and Muslim personal law.

I meant absolute responsibility in the eyes of the electorate for all errors, mistakes and cock-ups. I don't see this government acting particularly responsibly...

I would expect lots of infighting in BJP now. Quite a few of their leaders fear that Modi will be their Indira Gandhi. In fact, it started yesterday, with reports that BJP stalwart Sushma Swaraj was politicking to undermine Modi even before the results were announced.

Where do you get this information? Is stuff like this reported in English-language media?

Modi's authoritarian tendencies is well know among BJP leaders. Major detractors include L. K. Advani, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Uma Bharti, and as I've said, Sushma Swaraj. The latter has been at loggerheads with Modi for months now. The press like NDTV has been reporting that BJP is divided among pro-Modi and anti-Modi camps. Their group is said to have hoped for a NDA minority government, so that obviously Modi wont become prime minister, with BJP needing to look for more allies wanting a less polarizing PM. If not for Modi, Advani or even Swaraj would be NDA PM candidate.

[covermyeyes]

In Assam, the major beneficiary of the INC disaster will probably be Himanta Biswa Sarma, a state party heavyweight. He will likely to be the next Chief Minister, as Gogoi is toast. It is alleged that he has played a role in undermining Congress candidates throughout the state, including his chief ministerial rivals who were contesting to defend their seats in Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh. Both were probably losing anyway, but Sarma might have exacerbated their difficulties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sounds like a right charmer: he'll go far.

[covermyeyes]

Sounds like a right charmer: he'll go far.

People see him as the INC version of Modi in Assam. Seems he has already taken a leaf out of Modi's book.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Putting together a provisional winners map now. Very orange.

[Sbane]

The woman who's beating Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, Smriti Irani, is not your typical BJP politician in a lot of ways: besides being a woman (and prominent actress), she's a convert from Hinduism to Zoroastrianism. How many religious minorities are there in the BJP caucus?

But from the BJP point of view, Zoroastrians (as well as Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists) wouldn't really be considered minority religions.

[Sbane]

The woman who's beating Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, Smriti Irani, is not your typical BJP politician in a lot of ways: besides being a woman (and prominent actress), she's a convert from Hinduism to Zoroastrianism. How many religious minorities are there in the BJP caucus?

I'm surprised than Zoroastrianism still exists. I thought it disappeared during Antiquity.

Nah, the Muslims weren't able to totally eliminate it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Provisional results map. Sorry about the lack of party keys: I'll sort that out properly again at some point... honest. Some results will still change and flip about, no doubt. But anyway.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Provisional results map. Sorry about the lack of party keys: I'll sort that out properly again at some point... honest. Some results will still change and flip about, no doubt. But anyway.

That's one of the most depressing things I've seen in a long time.

[jaichind]

With 77% of the vote counted, it is NDA 333 UPA 59 with BJP at 279 and INC at 45.

From a vote share point of view so far it is

NDA  39.2%
BJP   33.2%

UPA  23.6%
INC   20.6%

While this is the worst showing for UPA in its history, lets remember that NDA got 24.3% in 2009 and managed to bounce back.  Also 39.2% is high but no higher than what NDA got in 1999 when they go 40.9%. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed. The sea of orange is mostly 'just' FPTP doing what it often does elsewhere (and often did in India in the past).

[jaichind]

NDTV has a different vote share count.  It has NDA at 40.7%, about same as 1999 for NDA.  It has UPA at 26.2% somewhat higher than NDA in 2009.  From a vote share point of view the worst year for UPA was 1996 when it got 29.8%.  This is about 3.6% worse.  The NDA-UPA gap explains the victory of NDA in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

So the prediction winner are the Indian bookies.  They predicted 340 and that is pretty much what took place.

[jaichind]

Kudos to CNN-IBN.  Their exit polls pretty much got the vote share correct.

[jaichind]

Looking at CNN-IBN vote share count we have NDA at 39.75% at UPA at 26.04% which leads to 334 vs 62 in terms of seats.  It is interesting because back in 2009 it was UPA 36.78% vs NDA at 24.29% and the seats victory was 262 vs 159.  So a similar vote share victory leads to very much different seat results.  This is not just FPTP.  It is more about NDA votes are more concentrated in the right places.  Sort of like Labor Party in UK relative to Tories.

[ag]

Awful result. I wonder, how may lives will it cost.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Provisional results map. Sorry about the lack of party keys: I'll sort that out properly again at some point... honest. Some results will still change and flip about, no doubt. But anyway.

Ouch

[ag]

Well, the people showed up en force and voted. They made their choice. They are responsible for it.