Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[Hatman 🍁]

Cambridge, another Liberal gain- has never gone Liberal in its history.

[Hash]

Cambridge, another Liberal gain- has never gone Liberal in its history.

Defeating the guy who co-wrote a public admin textbook of mine.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals back ahead in Beaches , but it looks like Parkdale-High Park should at least go NDP.

Come on Michael Prue, you can do it!

[Njall]

Liberals back ahead in Beaches , but it looks like Parkdale-High Park should at least go NDP.

Come on Michael Prue, you can do it!

Down by 70 votes with 14 polls remaining.  It's certainly possible; I hope he manages to pull it off as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's taking so long?

[Njall]

12 polls remaining now, still a 70 vote margin.

[Njall]

179/189 polls in Beaches--East York, margin is now 74 votes

[Njall]

182/189 polls, 62 vote margin

[Hatman 🍁]

96 votes now with 3 polls to go. I don't think it's possible. Damn.

[Njall]

Vote dump; Potts is up by 340.  It's over.

[Bojack Horseman]

One of my friends across the river is surprised that Windsor West, which had been a long Liberal stronghold went to the NDP.

[Krago]

Based on the latest popular vote figures:
Lib 38.7 / PC 31.2 / NDP 23.7 / Green 4.8 / Other 1.5

The winner of the worst pollster contest was:

(1) Ipsos-Reid - off by a combined 22.1%

(2) EKOS - off by a combined 17.5%
(3) Forum - off by a combined 15.1%
(4) Leger - off by a combined 11.9%
(5) Angus-Reid - off by a combined 10.5%
(5) Oracle - off by a combined 10.5%

And the least worst was...

(7) Abacus - off by a combined 8.9%

[Krago]

And Nanos is already trying to claim victory based on their poll from May 26!

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-S14-T606.pdf

[Antonio the Sixth]

[Zanas]

Finally, an election that is not all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire. We should get more of those.

[Holmes]

So the Ontario Liberals are popular among forum Euros. Who knew?

[lilTommy]

Such a mixed night for the NDP; great wins like Oshawa (with a rather no-name candidate at that) and expected wins like WW and Sudbury... but that is a trade off with the loss in Toronto. Horwath might face a leadership review but won't resign, there will be a lot of in fighting at the Prov.Exec I can already see it.

The party made a mistake by going all in Populist and not more mixed traditional Social democratic-Populist which could have totally been done!, That at least would have kept the base, the more left leaning in TO within the NDP camp, might have saved Beaches at least... AND the Liberals ran a massive anti-NDP, strategic vote in the city that lured the more urban voter who was SCARED to no end of the PCs, the Liberals wanted to punish Andrea since they would have won a majority without the TO wins... I'm slightly bitter . Anyone who says Wynne didn't want this election is playing dumb

Disaster for the PCs; but it was to be seen, if they had not run such a slash'n burn campaign they would have possible won.
Notice the map? the Liberals/NDP won all the seats along the Golden Horseshoe, the GTHA and those around it like Brant, Cambridge, Northumberland-Quinte except one Whitby-Oshawa (Elliott held that on her own). SO the Liberals won because of the Suburbs and TO.

[Hatman 🍁]

One of my friends across the river is surprised that Windsor West, which had been a long Liberal stronghold went to the NDP.

Not a surprise result, and it does have an NDP history.

Anyways, I wouldn't say the NDP campaign was a mistake. They took their downtown elite voters for granted, but made up for them by winning over populist voters. The next goal is to bridge the two sides.

[ObserverIE]

So the Ontario Liberals are popular among forum Euros. Who knew?

I think we can say that they are more popular with forum Euros than the Ontario Tories are.

Watched the start of the broadcast last night. Was surprised that Sid Ryan's accent is still so strongly lower middle-class "median" Dublin.

[lilTommy]

One of my friends across the river is surprised that Windsor West, which had been a long Liberal stronghold went to the NDP.

Not a surprise result, and it does have an NDP history.

Anyways, I wouldn't say the NDP campaign was a mistake. They took their downtown elite voters for granted, but made up for them by winning over populist voters. The next goal is to bridge the two sides.

Yup, that's exactly what i was saying I just think it could have happened this time around. Lesson learned, DO NOT take the Urban-left for granted.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, the media was a huge problem.

[Cassius]

So, does this mean that the Liberals are likely to be entrenched in Government for a good long while (as the Tories were throughout much of the 20th century)? Unless the Tories pull themselves together or the NDP displace them as the opposition (possibly leading to a BC like situation?). I don't know, I'm no expert...

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the Tories could win with a moderate leader. Will also help if the Liberals win federally. Ontario doesn't like to have a Premier of the same party as the Prime Minister for some reason.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Well, each level of government deals with very different issues. At least that's the quandry I find myself in. It's not just about wanting to have the premier and prime minister come from different parties to keep things honest.

Also, I have to disagree that this was a mixed night for the NDP. I mean, y'all are right that they did make inroads in some important constituencies, but those inroads mean squat if you lose elsewhere. You trigger an election if you want to come out on the other side with more power. Horwath triggered the election and, as a result, lost the significant bargaining power she had at Queen's Park. I know it feels reassuring to say it was a mixed night... but come on. It was awful. For the next four years the Liberals will get to do whatever they want and the NDP will play second fiddle to the PCs in terms of media attention. I don't really see an upside for the NDP. Plus, four years is an eternity in politics, and there are no reassurances whatsoever that the inroads Horwath made will stay around 'til 2018.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, it's their best result since 1990 - in terms of both seats and votes - and one that is (obviously) quite credible by historical standards. Hard to call that awful, given the various post-Rae elections.

A glorious triumph it obviously isn't, but who here is saying that?