Do you really think MS would be a Dem pick up...

[Tender Branson]

Nope.

Childers would lose to both Republicans by at least 10 points.

[MATTROSE94]

I doubt it, but Travis Childers could potentially limit Chris McDaniel's margin of victory to 5-10%.

[ag]

McDaniel will win. But Republicans will have to spend money on it. And, if he says something bad, they will be tarred with it outside the state.

[Mr. Illini]

The key here I think is really that a McDaniel nomination would make the RNC spend money. I don't think the DNC would go all in on this race either way but a McDaniel nomination alone could narrow it to the point where the RNC would want to throw a few extra bucks at the race to keep it safe.

There is also the possibility that McDaniel starts gaffing, which I could see happening. That could make it even more competitive.

[Del Tachi]

The thing is, Wicker in 2008 had the complete and total support of the Haley Barbour/Mississippi GOP machine.  McDaniel will not enjoy such.  Wicker was able to run-up his margin in Northeast Mississippi because he was from Tupelo.  On the same day, Northeast Mississippi elected Travis Childers.  There were a lot of Wicker/Childers voters in 2008.  Many people are underestimating just how malleable the electorate is in the northern half of the state, and, as we have seen, North Mississippi is Cochran's base. 

[RogueBeaver]

Trende rates that as between Lean and Likely R. Cohn similar. Sabato Likely R. I agree with them.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yes, as conservative as Mississippi is, I could see Childers beating McDaniel, but I can't make any guarantees.

[Badger]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

[7,052,770]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

No runoff, unless something has changed recently.

[Flake]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

No runoff, unless something has changed recently.

^^

segunda vuelta electoral son solo para las primarias elecciones

[Del Tachi]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

[Badger]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

20-40% of MS republican voters are NOT going to vote for ANY candidate sharing the same party label as Barack Hussien Obama. Especially in a federal race.

So MS only has runoffs for the primaries, but not the general?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No, but it could be closer than the 2006 US Senate race in Pennsylvania.

[dmmidmi]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

[Flake]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

Southern whites and southern blacks.

[dmmidmi]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

Southern whites and southern blacks.

I forgot to include the sarcasm font. There's no such thing as an undecided voter in Mississippi.

[bore]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

Southern whites and southern blacks.

I forgot to include the sarcasm font. There's no such thing as an undecided voter in Mississippi.

That's not true. His name is Bob.

[dmmidmi]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

Southern whites and southern blacks.

I forgot to include the sarcasm font. There's no such thing as an undecided voter in Mississippi.

That's not true. His name is Bob.

I'm guessing Bob is neither white nor black.

[Never]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

Southern whites and southern blacks.

I forgot to include the sarcasm font. There's no such thing as an undecided voter in Mississippi.

That's not true. His name is Bob.

I'm guessing Bob is neither white nor black.

He's actually kind of a grayish color

[GaussLaw]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

[Del Tachi]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

It will be at least 20%, if not higher, in places like Oktibbeha and Lee County.  I cannot speak for Metro Jackson and the Pine Belt. 

I've seen internal polls done by Childers that has showed the race within the MoE. 

[Del Tachi]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

This may be the dumbest post I've ever seen on this site.

A state that had a 75% Democratic house delegation as recently as 2011 is a "one party" state?

Why don't you take your pointers from the folks who actually live here?

[7,052,770]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

The whole idea of a Childers victory is predicated on McDaniel imploding and blowing it ala Akin, who was up by an even larger margin at this point 2 years ago. If McDaniel can avoid major gaffes,  he is very likely to win -- the odds of Childersoutdueling a solid mMcDaniel campaign are low.

[dmmidmi]

With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely Safe R

Fixed.

For some unknown reason, most voters in Mississippi are committed to one party or the other. Someone should look into why this is the case.

This may be the dumbest post I've ever seen on this site.

A state that had a 75% Democratic house delegation as recently as 2011 is a "one party" state?

Why don't you take your pointers from the folks who actually live here?

Of course you know more about your state's political lean than I do. And sure, I'm willing to bet that Mississippi's political climate is a lot more complex than the simplified version I off-handedly described.

But since 1984, the Presidential election results have been nearly identical, election after election, with (mostly) the same counties voting for the same party. Are you saying that there isn't a pattern to be seen here, based on the historical makeup of the geographic regions of your state?

[IceSpear]

I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

That was one poll. Another poll showed McDaniel performing 14 points weaker than Cochran. I'm guessing the truth is somewhere in between.