Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[Maxwell]

^

That is correct. I'm working on an elections recap and I'll post it here when I finish.

Waiting with interest. One of the questions i would like to get an answer for - why most of highly heralded campaigns of well-known (an, ostensibly, fitting the districts, being an "old school local good boys" with "normal" campaign platform (mixture of some economic populism with social conservatism)) Democratic local officials went so badly? Some even failed to get 40%, and the best result i can remember was 46% in HD-90. Even Childers got only 42%. The one (and only) exception in HD-12 only proves that...

If a place is trending away from a certain party for a long time. Not even candidates closer to the new "political center of that state" can win.

Some people think they lost because "they were too rightwing". I think even though they lost, they probably lost much less than had they ran a CA style campaign with full on Green platform, economic leftism and ultra social liberalism. Lots of bitter progressives play too much into that meme and Wendy Davis being crushed is an example of that hypothesis not working. There is no secret progressive voterbase that will prop up and bring them to victory if only they were more leftwing.

I don't think Democrats should run bitter progressive campaigns in states that aren't bitterly progressive. But it seems like a lot of these Democrats run in these states AGAINST the Republican narrative instead of FOR their own narrative. Beyond maybe Joe Manchin, and even he does this, I get the sense that economic populism still vibes with this region.

[gespb19]

Wrote this on my phone so probably could be written better but here is my recap on Tuesday's elections.

https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/recapping-the-mississippi-elections/

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Interesting -do you know of any Democratic defections in the offing over in the Senate?  

Wilemon maybe?

[smoltchanov]

Wrote this on my phone so probably could be written better but here is my recap on Tuesday's elections.

https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/recapping-the-mississippi-elections/

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Interesting -do you know of any Democratic defections in the offing over in the Senate?  

Wilemon maybe?

My thought too. With Hale out he is by far the most conservative of Democratic state senators. But on the other hand - he is 70+ and unlikely to seek other office in the future. More likelly - he will simply retire in 2019. If so - he may stay who he always was (a conservative Democrat) next 4 years..

[smoltchanov]

Wrote this on my phone so probably could be written better but here is my recap on Tuesday's elections.

https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/recapping-the-mississippi-elections/

Thanks! I knew almost alll info mentioned there, but thanks nevertheless. It seems to me that NE Misssissippi is finally shedding it's populist path and becomes solidly conservative not only on social, but on most other issues too. The fact that even Hood couldn't win Lee county, and losses of theoretically strong democratic local officeholders in state legislative races (most of them were exactly in this area) speak for themselves...

P.S. I expect Bain to switch sometime in future (and rather soon). He is very ambitious, comes from white-majority district in Northern Mississippi (where Republicans have considerable success of late), and is rather conservative (the most conservative Democrat in House after Steverson's switch, though, of course not as conservative as Bounds, Mettetal, Shows and Jeff Smith were only recently). He has nothing to gain remaining Democrat: Democrats will be in dire minority in Legislature until 2045 earliest, and he can't win statewide race as a Democrat. The upper limit - Northern PSC seat if Presley will run for something. And as Republican a possibilities are much bigger...

[7,052,770]

They're still counting votes in the Sojourner/Dearing race. That means it's possible Democrats will end up not netting a loss in the State Senate.

[gespb19]

Kinda random, but a Harper/Sojourner primary in CD-3 would be wildly entertaining.

[Del Tachi]

Kinda random, but a Harper/Sojourner primary in CD-3 would be wildly entertaining.

As would a Palazzo/McDaniel race in MS-4

Also, should we be keeping an eye-out for GOP shenanigans in MS-01 for 2016?  Kelly could be vulnerable in a GOP primary just because he isn't that well-established, and a DeSoto County candidate would have a pretty big advantage in a GOP primary.   

[gespb19]

Yeah, I'm waiting on McDaniel to make an announcement but I'm beginning to think it may not happen. Would definitely be a good race though.

[gespb19]

Reports from Natchez are that Dearing has slim lead but some votes left to be counted.

http://disq.us/8qxoxb

[7,052,770]

I think this is a Sojourner concession speech?

https://mississippipep.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/sen-melanie-sojourner-releases-statement-on-status-of-district-37-race/

[Frodo]

I think this is a Sojourner concession speech?

https://mississippipep.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/sen-melanie-sojourner-releases-statement-on-status-of-district-37-race/

So that means essentially no net change in the Mississippi Senate?

House:

Republicans: 74
Democrats: 48

Senate:

Republicans: 32
Democrats: 20

[gespb19]

The Jackson Jambalaya blog is reporting that the HD79 race with Eaton and Tullos may be tied up. So, we could still have some shakeups.

[smoltchanov]

I think this is a Sojourner concession speech?

https://mississippipep.wordpress.com/2015/11/10/sen-melanie-sojourner-releases-statement-on-status-of-district-37-race/

Looks so. If so - excellent! Dearing is an old school conservative Democrat (who was caught unprepared in Republican wave of 2011, IMHO), but even for diehard liberal he is MUCH better then lunatic right-winger Sojourner...

[Ebsy]

Considering the climate, Mississippi Democrats had a great night, at least in the State Senate.

[smoltchanov]

Considering the climate, Mississippi Democrats had a great night, at least in the State Senate.

Yeah, sure. But House is worse. As i already mentioned - they (Democrats) relied on popular local officeholders to get back some seats they lost in 2011 (mostly - in North Mississippi). And our expert gespb19 considered their chances to be pretty good. But, with one exception (i still try to deduce which type of Democrat he is ideologically) - they failed, and rather big ( 37 to 43% of vote)... And Democrats are still in danger of losing Eaton's seat. If so, there will be 74 Republicans in next House (all - white, BTW) and 48 Democrats (by my count - 38 Black and 10 white). Except for some relatively liberal members (like Bob Evans, Kevin Horan and David Baria (who is also endangered in every election) and, may be, Steve Holland and Tommy Reynolds) the moment may come when there will not be any other white Democrats in Mississippi's House (for example - Sullivan may retire, and Bain, Evans and Miles are strong candidates for switching). And Black caucus is, possibly, close to it's upper limit - with as polarized voting as it is in state it may grow by 1-2 next elections, but - hardly more...

[7,052,770]

There was an exact tie in one of the House seats previously counted as Republican.

[gespb19]

Unless the rule has changed, that race will be decided by drawing straws.

[smoltchanov]

Unless the rule has changed, that race will be decided by drawing straws.

Good luck to Eaton, then...

[/]

So the straw-drawing is confirmed, but apparently, the loser is allowed to challenge the result of it in front of the state House, which basically means that the House can vote to elect Tullos even if he loses. So he's basically already won.

[gespb19]

Yep.

[nclib]

When are the county maps going to be done?

[gespb19]

I've never been able to figure out how to make maps on this site. Someone smarter than I can give it a shot though.

[gespb19]

BTW, Eaton won the straw draw but Tullos will challenge as expected.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

BTW, Eaton won the straw draw but Tullos will challenge as expected.

So the Dems won fair and square but Republicans get their supermajority anyway? What hogwash.

[7,052,770]

When are the county maps going to be done?

Still nothing on the SOS website. Maybe next week?