Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, the NDP won the riding in 1990. Rule of thumb for this Parliament's set of by-elections: if the NDP won the seat in 1990, it will win the by-election.

I'd qualify that.  First re Kitchener-Waterloo: the NDP would have won within those boundaries in 1990; yet the fact remains that the actual predecessor seat was won by Liz Witmer--whose retirement spurred the NDP-steal byelection. 

And more to the point: all the 1990-era components of Scarborough-Guildwood went NDP that year--and the NDP still finished third, although much better than a lot expected.

But *absolutely* to the point: Etobicoke-Lakeshore's predecessor went Ruth Grier NDP by a landslide in 1990--and yet they lost their deposit in the byelection.

Wow, how soon I forget, eh?

[adma]

we also have to remember that the Niagara (except Niagara Centre or the old Welland-Thorold) tends to be a swing region, went Liberal in 87, NDP in 90 and PC in 95.

True w/the 87-90-95 sequence (other than Jim Bradley's St Kitts).  But going into 1987, both Niagara Falls and Niagara South (ex Erie) were longtime Liberal seats against the grain of the Big Blue Machine.  And since then, the only true swing belwether has been Niagara Falls--the other Niagara seats being held through thick and thin by Bradley, Kormos/Forster, and Hudak.

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba provincial by-elections today.

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/01/manitoba-provincial-by-elections-today.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the Tories are winning in a cake walk in both ridings, as expected. Liberals #2 in both, NDP #3.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP #2 in Morris now, but well behind in 3rd in Arthur-Virden (surprising, I thought it would be the other way around).

Arthur-Virden
17/83

PC: 564
Lib: 187
NDP: 78
Grn: 37

[Hatman 🍁]

Morris
(20/68)

PC: 681
NDP: 124
Lib: 109
Ind: 40
Grn:21

[trebor204]

In Morris PC at 70% (20/68)
In Virden PCs at 65% (20/83)

[trebor204]

In Morris (63/68)
PC 2518 - 69.5%
NDP 478
LIB 408
IND 138
Green 81

Arthur Virden (67/83)
PC 2638 - 67.0%
Lib 668
NDP 405
Green 226

[trebor204]

All of the polls have been counted:

Morris
Voter Turnout - 27.51%
PC - 2642 - 70.0%  (2011 73.6%)
NDP - 488 - 12.9% (19.26%)
LIB - 422 11.1% (6.5%)
Ind - 138
Green - 85

Arthur-Virden
Voter Turnout - 33.55%
PC - 3137 - 68.2% (2011 65.7%)
LIB - 738 - 16.0% (3.8%)
NDP - 480 - 10.4% (30.09%)
Green - 245

Voter Turnout was low due the cold weather.
And in Morris, some residents were waiting for the heat to turned on because of the pipeline explosion last weekend.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout also low due to both races being foregone conclusions.

Comments

Morris: Surprised that the Tories lost ground here. Also surprised that the NDP hung on for 2nd. Based on history, I thought this was the most likely of the 2 ridings for the Liberals to finish second. To be fair, the Liberals had a weak candidate. Also lol @ the Greens.

Arthur-Virden: Surprised at the strength of the Liberals. Finishing 2nd is a big deal. Also, the Tories barely made any gains here. I guess in both ridings, there's a bit of a ceiling in terms of Tory support. Most of the shifting happening was NDP -> Liberals. However, much of the NDP -> shifting going on across the province is mostly concentrated in the Winnipeg suburbs.

[DC Al Fine]

Also lol @ the Greens.

Am I missing something? Seems like a pretty good result for rural Manitoba.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also lol @ the Greens.

Am I missing something? Seems like a pretty good result for rural Manitoba.

Maybe, but they finished behind an independent.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper's popularity with the Jewish community is a Thornhill factor.

[MaxQue]

Harper's popularity with the Jewish community is a Thornhill factor.

About CPC and provincial politics, do CPC MPs are usually involving in PC provincial campaigns?

[RogueBeaver]

Harper's popularity with the Jewish community is a Thornhill factor.

About CPC and provincial politics, do CPC MPs are usually involving in PC provincial campaigns?

Harper endorsed Hudak last time and the 2 parties work closely together behind the scenes, but not publicly for fairly obvious reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

New Ontario polls from That Firm. Tories lead 47/37 in Thornhill, an increase of 3 from 3 weeks ago. In Niagara the NDP leads the Tories 38/36 because they're cannibalizing the Liberal vote while Tories haven't moved. Meanwhile Kinsella suggests a Grit bloodbath outside the GTA in a GE.

Question: does anyone think this Grit erosion might create an opening for Horwath to supplant them?

[lilTommy]

New Ontario polls from That Firm. Tories lead 47/37 in Thornhill, an increase of 3 from 3 weeks ago. In Niagara the NDP leads the Tories 38/36 because they're cannibalizing the Liberal vote while Tories haven't moved. Meanwhile Kinsella suggests a Grit bloodbath outside the GTA in a GE.

Question: does anyone think this Grit erosion might create an opening for Horwath to supplant them?

Polls should be looked at based on momentum, not necessarily their figures at that time. I say that given the NDP results in both LW and KW... they weren't leading in the polls (KW I believe that was the case) But they saw the momentum of growth particularly in LW.
In NF, the PCs are running a massive anti-NDP campaign, that's all their talking about. They are getting nothing but bad news about candidates bolting due to their policies, down playing said policies in their own campaign, but still managed to "stick" at 36%, i'd say that part Maves himself. But with those numbers and the NDP really only focusing on NF, it's going to be a messy fight (even the OLP are attacking the NDP mostly)

Rogue - To answer you; I'd say Yes, but it depends where. I don't see the NDP eroding the Liberal vote in Eastern Ontario, Hatman and other might have a better understanding of the East, Really only Ottawa Centre is plausible given history, demographics and fedMP (but with the Liberal is pretty darn popular i hear so...)
The Liberals are DEAD in the SW; it will be a dog fight between the NDP and the PCs, London NC might stay Liberal but that will be on Matthews popularity alone i feel; The North i see the Liberals losing their 4 seats finally to the NDP as well (all Urban seats). TO, the OLP is still strong here, i can see the NDP making a play for YSW and SRR and SSW (what they hold federally) but that's it, and that's being hopeful

[RogueBeaver]

Momentum's with you guys in NF, that's what I pointed out. Of course Forum could be spectacularly wrong again.

[adma]

And to a small degree, a Thornhill Liberal loss can fall back on Harper's Israel gambit as an alibi.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is only really making huge gains in SW Ontario (not sure why exactly it's there in particular). NF is sorta SW Ontario. It doesn't usually get lumped in there, as it's in the 905 and has is an L postal code area, but I'd say it's more similar to London or Kitchener than Missisissauga or Whitby.

As for the NDP's fortunes in Eastern Ontario? They're non existent. Only hope is Ottawa Centre, but Naqvi is way too popular to be unseated.

[DL]

Depends on what you classify as eastern Ontario. The NDP was quite competitive in Peterborough in the 2011 ON election and it's one of the most marginal Liberal seats. Kingston is another wild card since the NDP has a strong candidate and the longtime Liberal incumbent is retiring.

[Hatman 🍁]

Depends on what you classify as eastern Ontario. The NDP was quite competitive in Peterborough in the 2011 ON election and it's one of the most marginal Liberal seats. Kingston is another wild card since the NDP has a strong candidate and the longtime Liberal incumbent is retiring.

I can see Kingston and Peterborough flipping if the NDP is above 30% in the polls. Peterborough isn't eastern Ontario though It helps that they are both university ridings. Peterborough is a bit of a bellwether though, so it might take an NDP lead in the polls to flip it.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne hit Hudak on RTW and Horwath on the minimum wage.

[King of Kensington]

Has anyone done the 2011 federal result in Niagara Falls riding by municipality?

[Smid]

Has anyone done the 2011 federal result in Niagara Falls riding by municipality?

Not by municipality, but The506 has his excellent compilation of poll maps. He has federal and Ontario provincial:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/