Canadian by-elections, 2014

[trebor204]

New Year, New Topic

2 provincial by-election have been called in Manitoba for Tuesday Jan 28th for Morris and Arthur-Virden.

Both are in PC strongholds. In the 2011 election Arthur-Virden went 65.7% PC, and Morris went 73.6% PC.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Morris-Arthur-Virden-byelections-will-be-held-Jan-28-237521551.html

[DC Al Fine]

In federal news, Macleod MP Ted Menzies will have to be replaced sometime this year. Menzies got a whopping 77.5% of the vote last time, so I imagine the Tories will hold on to this one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay! They've finally been called!

Elections Manitoba sent me some poll maps, so I'll have to get started on them

[Hatman 🍁]

Also waiting on a by-election in Niagara Falls (provincial)

Anything else?

[adma]

Also waiting on a by-election in Niagara Falls (provincial)

Anything else?

Niagara Falls *and* Thornhill.

[Hatman 🍁]

d'oh

[lilTommy]

Also waiting on a by-election in Niagara Falls (provincial)

Anything else?

The media has picked up that the Liberals are dying in SWO; coincidence or not they moved their convention from London to Toronto...

"While PC and NDP officials insist that would not dramatically alter the case they make to voters there, signs to the contrary are already showing, including more criticism than usual by the Tories of the NDP. While it remains to be seen if New Democratic Leader Andrea Horwath will hold up to the scrutiny brought by good poll numbers, Tim Hudak’s party – which currently holds the majority of southwestern seats – has cause to be a little spooked by research suggesting the NDP is ahead in the region."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/what-ontario-liberals-southwestern-slump-portends-for-a-coming-election/article16240248/

[RogueBeaver]

Thornhill and Niagara could be held as early as Feb. 13. Grits will nominate their Niagara candidate tomorrow.

[lilTommy]

Thornhill and Niagara could be held as early as Feb. 13. Grits will nominate their Niagara candidate tomorrow.

Looks like all three candidates in Niagara Falls will be from Municipal politics (if they all win their nominations)
Gates (NDP) & Morocco (OLP) are both NF city Councillors (finished i think 4th and 6th out of 8 ) and Bart Maves is a Regional Councillor (former Harris MPP, so yikes, not sure if that will work out for him so much)

The OLP has the strongest candidate so far in Thornhill, Regional Councillor Racco, her husband was former MPP who was defeated by Shurman... lets keep it in the family right (also might be an all female fight if the NDP and Greens manage to nominate anyone, the NDP should, but if they don't, this for me leans for OLP win)

[RogueBeaver]

Didn't the OLP run one of the former MPP's relatives against Horwath and get crushed regardless? Needless to say I hope both, or at least Thornhill, is painted bleu.

[lilTommy]

Didn't the OLP run one of the former MPP's relatives against Horwath and get crushed regardless? Needless to say I hope both, or at least Thornhill, is painted bleu.

At this point, NF is anyone's game really. When we have actual candidates, might be clearer but to me it might be another London West   Could go PC, but Maves would have Harris baggage and for your sake here's hoping the PCs have learned their lesson from LW & KW. The OLP is tanking in SWO; so it will be interesting to see where that vote goes. So far by-election history is siding with an NDP win.

Thornhill, Gosh, it was the only 905 PC win which makes me think Shurman himself was a big vote getter; the riding's history of going back and forth between the OLP and PCs with slim margins of victory makes me think Candidate might just be the deciding factor. The OLP brand is terrible but has stabilized, so to-close-to-call-leaning-OLP for me... even though you hope PC

[adma]

Thornhill, Gosh, it was the only 905 PC win which makes me think Shurman himself was a big vote getter; the riding's history of going back and forth between the OLP and PCs with slim margins of victory makes me think Candidate might just be the deciding factor. The OLP brand is terrible but has stabilized, so to-close-to-call-leaning-OLP for me... even though you hope PC

Actually, what *really* cinched the riding for Shurman was John Tory's controversial 2007 private-school-funding platform coupled with (and not unrelated to) a more general post-Y2K Conservative courting of the Jewish/pro-Israel vote.  And as the incumbent in a year when no Tory incumbents were defeated, Shurman basically coasted to reelection in 2011 (though not by *too* much, thanks to star Grit candidate Bernie Farber)

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah. Thornhill is all about the Jewish vote. If they go PC, you gotta win the non Jewish areas (west of Bathurst & East of Bayview) which vote similarly to the rest of the 905.

[adma]

Yeah. Thornhill is all about the Jewish vote. If they go PC, you gotta win the non Jewish areas (west of Bathurst & East of Bayview) which vote similarly to the rest of the 905.

Or, the Grits could bid for their own Jewish-vote critical mass--thus their Bernie Farber gambit in 2011; also how Monte Kwinter survived and a bit how some of those close-calls in 2007 (like Eglinton-Lawrence) became Grit landslides in 2011...

[DL]

I think the federal Tories made inroads among Jewish voters largely by pandering to them over Israel. Its a different story at the provincial level where foreign policy is irrelevant - and so the small "l" liberal tendencies of Jewish voters tend to manifest themselves.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, the Jewish areas are between Yonge and Dufferin. (Though there are 2 plurality Jewish census tracts east of Bayview). The Jewish areas went overwhelmingly PC in 2011: http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/107/89.php?e=2011

[Hatman 🍁]

Thornhill religion map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Of note: 53% of the riding is between Yonge and Dufferin.

[Krago]

[Hatman 🍁]

Is the information available by dissemination area, for free?

[adma]

I think the federal Tories made inroads among Jewish voters largely by pandering to them over Israel. Its a different story at the provincial level where foreign policy is irrelevant - and so the small "l" liberal tendencies of Jewish voters tend to manifest themselves.

And yet, it was provincially in 2003 that the pandering first really began to manifest itself electorally (among other things, by turning Thornhill from the closest thing to a Liberal gain in the 416 in 1999, to the closest thing to a PC hold in the inner 416 in 2003).  And of course, John Tory's private-school jag in 2007 was all about such pandering--thus the Shurman gain.

It's only in 2011 that the provincial Liberals really "came to" re targeting the small-"l" liberal tendencies (and it helped that Hudak's campaign was so tin-eared on the ethno-politics front)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Very interesting map, Krago (as usual).

[Hatman 🍁]

I never understood why Jews have concentrated as a "belt" along Bathurst St.

[lilTommy]

I never understood why Jews have concentrated as a "belt" along Bathurst St.

I suppose the same reason the Chinese, Italians, Greek, Indian, etc in Toronto tend to congregate "Belt like" along a main street or streets. The Chinese along Spadina (ok, and Dundas and Broadview) Italians along College, Greeks along Danforth, Indians along Gerrard.

[Krago]

I never understood why Jews have concentrated as a "belt" along Bathurst St.

I suppose the same reason the Chinese, Italians, Greek, Indian, etc in Toronto tend to congregate "Belt like" along a main street or streets. The Chinese along Spadina (ok, and Dundas and Broadview) Italians along College, Greeks along Danforth, Indians along Gerrard.

A more specific reason is that a lot of observant Jews do not use transportation on the Sabbath and walk to synagogue.  Since most of the synagogues are along Bathurst St, it makes sense that many Jews live within walking distance.