Ukraine Crisis

[Peeperkorn]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

[Frodo]

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

All the West can do is advocate democracy, liberal values, and the rule of law, and push back against Putin whenever possible.  There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die.  His world-view was indelibly shaped by the Cold War.  So long as he lives and remains in power, any state on Russia's periphery -including Ukraine- not already a member of NATO and/or the EU will never have a truly liberal democratic future without interference from a Russia imbued with dreams of imperial restoration.

[MaxQue]

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die. 

Could West speed up that process?

[Frodo]

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die.

Could West speed up that process?

If you are you advocating an assassination, I would advise against it.  

Considering the other (viable) alternatives at this point in time in Russia, Putin is the only game we have in town.  

[Mr. Morden]

And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?

[Peeperkorn]

Russia created Putin. Russians like Putin. Russians need a Putin.

They have no changed since the Tsar's age.

If you think that with his death the people will be converted in happy liberal democrats, well, you are wrong.

[Peeperkorn]

And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?

In the crazy 90s every republic from the ex USSR without the support of Moscow wanted to be part of NATO and they had some deal here, some deal there, etc.

Caucasus is a mess, but a very attractive region for energetic purposes.

[Deus Naturae]

The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8.

[Peeperkorn]

The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8.

The puppet state of Canadia is doing the same.

[Famous Mortimer]

And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?

In the crazy 90s every republic from the ex USSR without the support of Moscow wanted to be part of NATO and they had some deal here, some deal there, etc.

Caucasus is a mess, but a very attractive region for energetic purposes.

Partnership for Peace.

[Frodo]

And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?

Sorry, I confused Georgia's 2008 vote to join NATO with actual NATO membership.  

[Tender Branson]

Situations like these always make me feel good that this guy is in the White House:



And not these guys:

[Peeperkorn]

30 minutes ago:


"Three former Ukranian Presidents, Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma and Víktor Yúschenko has asked the Kiev Paliament the military movilization of the country. "We have to be prepared to defend our Motherland" wrote in a text in Ukraínskaya Pravda."

Kuchma is a surprise, as he was a pro-Russia hero.

[Nhoj]

30 minutes ago:

It translates to something like this: "Three former Ukranian Presidents, Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma and Víktor Yúschenko has asked the Kiev Paliament the military movilization of the country. "We have to be prepared to defend our Motherland" wrote in a text in Ukraínskaya Pravda."

Kuchma is a surprise, as he was a pro-Russia hero.

he denounced yanukovych pretty early in the protests.

[ag]

The U.S. is suspending its participation in the G8.

The puppet state of Canadia is doing the same.

Canada has a large Ukrainian community. It will, hopefully, actually drag the southern neighbor into action.

[ag]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

[Peeperkorn]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

[Tender Branson]

10 minutes ago, Ukraine ordered general mobilisation:

http://derstandard.at/1392686841173/Ukraine-ruft-Generalmobilmachung-aus

[Tender Branson]

Ukraine declares total mobilization

Ukraine has announced general mobilization, with Secretary of the National Security Council Andriy Parubiy declaring that the entire country will be put on full combat alert.

The defense ministry is reportedly calling up all its reserve troops who are due to come to enrollment offices on Sunday, March 2.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_02/Ukraine-declares-total-mobilization-3356

[Mr. Morden]

If this is right, it suggests that a Russian takeover of Crimea won't be sustainable…..unless they also take over a decent chunk of the rest of eastern Ukraine:

link

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[ag]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

This will NOT satisfy the Russians. No more than giving Sudenten satisfied the Germans back in 1938. The only reason to do this is if you desperately want to go fighting on a Russian front in a couple of year. The only way to prevent THAT is to make it so painful to Russia right now, that they never think of a repeat.

[Mr. Morden]

Ummmm……   http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/house-ukraine-caucus-chair-some-group-had-to-step-in-to-medi

[Peeperkorn]

I think that the better way of ending all this trouble is allowing Ukraine to stay with Crimea but with an extremely more significant autonomy, Moscow's right to veto, and airports and ports under Russian control.

Like Kosovo after 1998. De jure it still was part of Serbia, de facto it was independent and protected by NATO.

But well, that's a moderate opinion and Putin transformed these last years in a megalomaniac, so who knows. The Western Ukrainians wouldn't be very happy either.

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

Crimea HAD a lot of autonomy. It is NOT what the Russian government wants. It wants Crimea - and, at least, half of the rest of Ukraine. That, if they get it, might be enough - for 5 or 6 months.  Then they will ask for more. Unless you quickly stop this madman, you will have to fight a big war just a few years down the line.

I said MORE autonomy, to the point of being a puppet of Moscow even when in the official maps keeps being showed as Ukraine. That's why I used the Kosovo example.

--

I've said this before.

Am I the only one that thinks than in the last two or three years Putin went as mad as a second class African dictator or Milosevic? He wasn't such an InksHole before....

This is not audacity...is an invitation for war, civil or international.

This will NOT satisfy the Russians. No more than giving Sudenten satisfied the Germans back in 1938. The only reason to do this is if you desperately want to go fighting on a Russian front in a couple of year. The only way to prevent THAT is to make it so painful to Russia right now, that they never think of a repeat.

Do you think that diplomatic sanctions would be enough?

[Mr. Morden]

Here's what Putin wrote in a NYT op/ed back in September, urging the US not to intervene in Syria:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?_r=2&

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[Middle-aged Europe]

In an interview with the newspaper Pravo, former Czech foreign minister Karel Schwarzenberg has compared Putin to Hitler.

Meanwhile, Crimeans seem to be in a great mood:

http://instagram.com/p/lBDJ87ss09/