Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

Things seem pretty bad for PD in FPTP seats.  In Tuscany where it is the strongest, out of the 7 Senate seats, it is only ahead in 2 of them.  And one of seats that it is ahead is Renzi's seat.

In Emilia-Romagna where PD is also very strong it seems to be Center-Right 6 PD 2 in terms of Senate FPTP leads.

[SPQR]

Things seem pretty bad for PD in FPTP seats.  In Tuscany where it is the strongest, out of the 7 Senate seats, it is only ahead in 2 of them.  And one of seats that it is ahead is Renzi's seat.

In Emilia-Romagna where PD is also very strong it seems to be Center-Right 6 PD 2 in terms of Senate FPTP leads.

PD is losing Emilia-Romagna and Umbria against the center-right with Lega at 20%.
That alone summarizes this election.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Things seem pretty bad for PD in FPTP seats.  In Tuscany where it is the strongest, out of the 7 Senate seats, it is only ahead in 2 of them.  And one of seats that it is ahead is Renzi's seat.

In Emilia-Romagna where PD is also very strong it seems to be Center-Right 6 PD 2 in terms of Senate FPTP leads.

Currently, PD leads in 3 Tuscany districts, 2 Emilia Romagna districts, and one each in Lazio, Lombardy, and Piedmont. The third Tuscany and the one Piedmont are within 250 votes

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The worst day for the Democratic Party since November 2, 2010.

[jaichind]

RAI Projection (Lower House)

M5S gained ground since last projection

Coalition      From   To
Center-Right      247   257
Center-Left      110   120

Party   
Five Star Movement      230   240
League      115   123
Democratic Party      104   110
Forza Italia      99   105
Brothers of Italy      24   32
Free and Equal      11   19
South Tyrolean People’s Party      3   5
Us With Italy - UDC      2   4
Popular Civic Lorenzin      1   3
+Europe Bonino      0   2
Together Italy Europe      0   2
Others      0   2

[jaichind]

It seems that PD will become the 4th largest party in the Senate behind M5S, LN, and FI.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things seem pretty bad for PD in FPTP seats.  In Tuscany where it is the strongest, out of the 7 Senate seats, it is only ahead in 2 of them.  And one of seats that it is ahead is Renzi's seat.

In Emilia-Romagna where PD is also very strong it seems to be Center-Right 6 PD 2 in terms of Senate FPTP leads.

PD is losing Emilia-Romagna and Umbria against the center-right with Lega at 20%.
That alone summarizes this election.

It's an embarrassingly bad performance that calls into question... well... everything, doesn't it?

[jaichind]

What is annoying about http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniSI is that it gives you the name of the alliance candidate but not the party ID of said candidate.

[jaichind]

I think Renzi will have to be out as PD leader after this sort of result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LeU never got off the ground, but it has had an impact on the election: it's going to cost the PD a bunch of district seats...

[jaichind]

LeU never got off the ground, but it has had an impact on the election: it's going to cost the PD a bunch of district seats...

I saw that.  I am confused on why this took place.  Even if LeU ran candidates in the FPTP seats surely their PR supporters should tactically vote for the Center-Left block since there is no way the LeU candidate could win.  It does not seem to have taken place.  Is there some sort of rule I am not aware of that forces the PR vote to be linked to the FPTP vote ?

[Mazda]

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

[jaichind]

It seems based on current projections M5S could also form a majority via an alliance with FI as well.  It seems M5S-LN, M5S-PD, and M5S-FI all produces a majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

It goes to the rest of the coalition (that is to say, to PD).

[Mazda]

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

It goes to the rest of the coalition (that is to say, to PD).

Oh, so it's not quite as bad as it looks for PD, then.

[jaichind]

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

It goes to the rest of the coalition (that is to say, to PD).

Oh, so it's not quite as bad as it looks for PD, then.

But I guess that same logic would apply for the UDC PR votes which are also below the threshold.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LeU never got off the ground, but it has had an impact on the election: it's going to cost the PD a bunch of district seats...

I saw that.  I am confused on why this took place.  Even if LeU ran candidates in the FPTP seats surely their PR supporters should tactically vote for the Center-Left block since there is no way the LeU candidate could win.  It does not seem to have taken place.  Is there some sort of rule I am not aware of that forces the PR vote to be linked to the FPTP vote ?

The answer is the electoral system: you cannot vote for a different party for the district and list seats. Another spectacular own goal for Renzi there.

[Harlow]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

Okay, he's called for cleansing.

But we all know what he's talking about.

I believe he was talking about illegal migrants, not a specific race.

Oh come on, the word choice is like a dog loudspeaker.

Dog whistles aren't a real thing outside the minds of the left.

lol this is the exact sort of thing somebody who can't hear dogwhistles says.

[Oryxslayer]

LeU never got off the ground, but it has had an impact on the election: it's going to cost the PD a bunch of district seats...

Like the Right is currently winning the 2nd Tuscany Seat by 7K votes at about 65% tabulated...

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

If a party gets below 1%, their votes are dead. If above 1% but between 3%, the votes go to other parties in the alliance above 3%. Above 3%, the party gets in. At least, thats how it was explained to me.

[jaichind]

LeU never got off the ground, but it has had an impact on the election: it's going to cost the PD a bunch of district seats...

I saw that.  I am confused on why this took place.  Even if LeU ran candidates in the FPTP seats surely their PR supporters should tactically vote for the Center-Left block since there is no way the LeU candidate could win.  It does not seem to have taken place.  Is there some sort of rule I am not aware of that forces the PR vote to be linked to the FPTP vote ?

The answer is the electoral system: you cannot vote for a different party for the district and list seats. Another spectacular own goal for Renzi there.

Ok, well that's it.  I was thinking to myself earlier tonight, PD might do better in the FPTP seat then the PR vote share might imply since surely they can get LeU tactical voting.  I guess that is out too.

[Harlow]

I wish the map was color coded 😭

I've been steadily editing a map of FPTP Senate seats as results come in, this is what I have as of right now.



Blue is center-right coalition
Yellow is M5S
Red is center-left coalition
Gray is other (The two seats in Tyrol are SVP-PATT)

[jaichind]

LeU never got off the ground, but it has had an impact on the election: it's going to cost the PD a bunch of district seats...

Like the Right is currently winning the 2nd Tuscany Seat by 7K votes at about 65% tabulated...

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

If a party gets below 1%, their votes are dead. If above 1% but between 3%, the votes go to other parties in the alliance above 3%. Above 3%, the party gets in. At least, thats how it was explained to me.

Wait.  3 of the Center-Left alliance parties are below 1% in terms of PR votes.  So they will all just be gone as far as their seat getting potential ?

[Oryxslayer]

LeU never got off the ground, but it has had an impact on the election: it's going to cost the PD a bunch of district seats...

Like the Right is currently winning the 2nd Tuscany Seat by 7K votes at about 65% tabulated...

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

If a party gets below 1%, their votes are dead. If above 1% but between 3%, the votes go to other parties in the alliance above 3%. Above 3%, the party gets in. At least, thats how it was explained to me.

Wait.  3 of the Center-Left alliance parties are below 1% in terms of PR votes.  So they will all just be gone as far as their seat getting potential ?

Thats how it was explained to me...but I'm not confident. Ask an Italian. The reddit post in R/europe desribes it in detail apparently.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I wish the map was color coded 😭

I've been steadily editing a map of FPTP Senate seats as results come in, this is what I have as of right now.



Blue is center-right coalition
Yellow is M5S
Red is center-left coalition
Gray is other (The two seats in Tyrol are SVP-PATT)

Could you post it? I've looked all over for a live results map colored by party, but I guess there aren't any.

[Oryxslayer]

I wish the map was color coded 😭

I've been steadily editing a map of FPTP Senate seats as results come in, this is what I have as of right now.



Blue is center-right coalition
Yellow is M5S
Red is center-left coalition
Gray is other (The two seats in Tyrol are SVP-PATT)

Imgur doesn't work here, use another site. However, Rai flashed a Lower Chamber map up for a minute a few moments ago, and I get the basic picture. Pretty much all of the old Kingdom of Two Sicilies was M5S yellow, and 90% of everything North of it was Blue. Only a few bits in the red belt, Trento, the cities, and Aosta broke the Blue wall.