Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[DavidB.]

Looks like is a small swing against M5S in the North relative to 2013.   This means M5S must be making large gains in the South.  This bodes well for M5S from the FPTP seats races point of view.

Which is really bad for Forza in terms of FPTP seats.

[jaichind]

Looks like is a small swing against M5S in the North relative to 2013.   This means M5S must be making large gains in the South.  This bodes well for M5S from the FPTP seats races point of view.

Which is really bad for Forza in terms of FPTP seats.

Yes.  But if the M5S PR vote over-concentrates in the South and is not strong enough in Central Italy FI could gain back those loses in places like Lazio.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know it's very early, but hahaha look at the MS5 numbers in Naples, Christ.

[jaichind]

I know it's very early, but hahaha look at the MS5 numbers in Naples, Christ.

And Sicily

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I cannot believe that I'm rooting for the f**king Five Star Movement.

[YE]

Can someone who knows something about Italian politics explain what is going on?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I consider the League and Silvio fascists.

Silvio i dunno.

Lega are fascists.

When there are actual Fascist candidates on the ballot, it isn't the best idea to throw that term around. However since Lega is Hard Right Socially/Hard Right economically, it would be correct to use that term - if the Casapound party didn't exist.

I'd still be wary about using the term since Lega, as opposed to CasaPound, hasn't shown hatred towards democracy, which is one of the major facets of the fascist ideology.

Lega is obviously not fascist. These days, fascism is a term used by many on the left to refer to nationalism and by idiots across the political spectrum to mean "any authoritarian ideology I dislike"

[Former President tack50]

I wonder, would PD actually reach a deal with Lega and Forza Italia? That way you could get a PD-LN-FI government and avoid M5S if they truly refuse to take part in any coalition.

Or is PD too far from LN?

[Sestak]

I wonder, would PD actually reach a deal with Lega and Forza Italia? That way you could get a PD-LN-FI government and avoid M5S if they truly refuse to take part in any coalition.

Or is PD too far from LN?

Bleh.

[H. Ross Peron]

I wonder, would PD actually reach a deal with Lega and Forza Italia? That way you could get a PD-LN-FI government and avoid M5S if they truly refuse to take part in any coalition.

Or is PD too far from LN?

That would be electoral suicide for all involved especially PD.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder, would PD actually reach a deal with Lega and Forza Italia? That way you could get a PD-LN-FI government and avoid M5S if they truly refuse to take part in any coalition.

Or is PD too far from LN?

Bleh.

The grandest of coalitions

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So what government are we all predicting. I'm gonna go with M5S-PD but Renzi won't be leading it.

[DavidB.]

Can someone who knows something about Italian politics explain what is going on?

I don't know much about Italian politics, but "something", sure:

- Center-left bloc led by governing PD is losing a lot.
- Center-right bloc led by Berlusconi's Forza Italia becomes largest bloc but fails to win parliamentary majority.
- Five-Star Movement (M5S), a protest party garnering votes from all over the political spectrum without any clear set of plans, will become the largest party and is now kingmaker. The coalition preference of M5S is unclear.
- Northern-based Lega, nowadays toning down its separatism and focusing on immigration issues, might become larger than Forza Italia in the center-right bloc, which would mean that their no. 1 candidate, Matteo Salvini, would become Prime Minister in case they manage to form a government. However, this scenario still seems really unlikely, as the center-right haven't won a majority and Forza might still win more seats than the Lega even if the Lega are bigger in the list PV.
- A time of chaos is likely to follow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can someone who knows something about Italian politics explain what is going on?

Berlusconi dominated politics from the mid 90s until the financial crisis. After a period of technocrat rule, there was an election and the PD took power. PD rule has been a bit of a fiasco for various reasons, but Berlusconi has not recovered his former shine. Make sense now?

[jaichind]

Italian Senate Seats: RAI Projection

Coalition/List      From   To
Center-Right      124   144
Five Star Movement      102   122
Center-Left      44   64

Top 11 Lists   
Five Star Movement      102   122
Democratic Party      42   54
League      52   62
Forza Italia      46   56
Brothers of Italy      19   29
Free and Equal      6   10
South Tyrolean People’s Party      2   4
Us With Italy - UDC      1   3
+Europe Bonino      0   2
Popular Civic Lorenzin      0   2
Together Italy Europe      0   2
Others      0   2

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Can someone who knows something about Italian politics explain what is going on?

A lot.

M5S is going to be the largest single party. They're populists with little to no coherent ideology but tend towards left wing economic and right wing immigration proposals. They're unlikely to be able to make a coalition with any other parties and function best outside of government anyway.

The center-right coalition made small gains, but more importantly the distribution of votes within it shifted away from neoliberal FI to nationalist conservative parties LN and FdI.

The center-left coalition, which won the last election and presided over a chaotic period of mass migration and economic stagnation, lost a lot of votes.

The far left splinter group from the center left met the threshold for seats, but is not a major player and may not even get 5%.

Oh, and Casapound Italia, the (actual self described) fascist party the media loves freaking out over, will not be making the cutoff for seats, winning only 1% of the vote.

[Oryxslayer]

New Senatorial vote counts. Venice, Tuscany, Piedmont, Emilia Romania, and Campagnia are the regions over 1000 completed precincts, though the others are mixed and not tailing too far.

11,308/61,401

37.01% Right
-19% Lega
-13.5% Forza

-M5S 30.10%

25.17% Left
-21% PD

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My family is from Molise and Abruzzo. Glad to see the League is only getting 7% in the former.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The center-left coalition, which won the last election and presided over a chaotic period of mass migration and economic stagnation, lost a lot of votes.

I'm not going to defend the record of the PD-in-government, but it is really important to understand the mess the country was in when they gained power. Not only is it hackish to not mention this, but it makes things confusing - when, then, has there not been a great Right landslide? Because they still themselves carry the stink of the mess they made last time they were in power...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My family is from Molise and Abruzzo. Glad to see the League is only getting 7% in the former.

The League getting 7% or so in Molise is hardly reason for reassurance.

[Sestak]

Can someone who knows something about Italian politics explain what is going on?

Quick guide to the parties (though I'm also not that well-versed in Italian politics:

Left bloc:
Led by the Democratic Party, boring neoliberal corrupt center-left party

Right bloc:
Forza Italia, led by Mr. Bunga Bunga, Silvio Berlusconi.
Lega, far right authoritarian party led by Matteo Salvini, staunchly nationalist and anti-immigrant and has called for ethnic cleansing

5 Star:
Populist protest movement founded by comedian Beppe Grillo. Anti-corruption, anti-migrant though extent is unclear, some anti-vaxxers in there, mostly unclear economic views.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Berlusconi and his government was responsible for a lot of the damage, PA Deplorable.

[FrancoAgo]

In the 2013 the PD coalition get 29,55%
they lost a ally, SEL, with 3,2%
so 26,35%
they gained some new allies: Radicals 0,19% in 2013 and some ex  UDC and ex FI MPs but MPs elected with blocked list actually with very few electoral power in their hands

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Berlusconi and his government was responsible for a lot of the damage, PA Deplorable.

Did I say they weren't? That's like saying during the 2012 election "You're talking about Obama's record? Well Bush made mistakes too!"  True, but a total deflection and irrelevant to my point about why PD is in decline.

I don't like Berlusconi. He's the epitome of Italian political corruption. If I was Italian, I'd probably vote FdI.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Lega is ahead of Forza in Lazio (the region with Rome in it). I thought they'd do well, but that level of success south of Tuscany is a surprise.