Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Zuza]

Well, my prediction:
Centre-right 37.0% (FI  17.5% , L 12.8%, FdI 4.5%, NcI 2.2%)
M5S 28.2%
Centre-left 26.7% (PD 20.4%,  +E 4.1%, CP 1.2%, I 1.0%)
LeU 4.4%
CPI 1.7%
PaP 1.0%
Others 1.0%

Based on this:

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.

[Helsinkian]

But are the PD voters really religious like Ned Flanders is?

[SPQR]

I want to be an optimist, but the results might be much more dramatic:

PD 23%
+E 4%
CP 1%
I 1%
CENTER-LEFT: 29%

FI 17%
LN 13%
FdI 4%
NcI 2%
CENTER-RIGHT: 36%

M5S 26,5%

LeU 4,5%

PaP 2%
CPI 1%
Others 1%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Holy shit! There are so many elections going on in Middle Europe today:
SPD member survey in Germany
Swiss plebiscite about its state television
State election in Carinthia
Italian snap elections

[Lurker]

Any seat projections? How high a percentage would the FI/Lega alliance need to gain an outright majority?

[EPG]

I think Berlusconi is obsessed about the rest of Europe rejecting his government. That's why he lined up Tajani. I find it impossible to believe he would stick to a Forza-Lega pact if Forza-PD were viable. However, I don't know enough about the loyalties of the likely centro-destra first-past-the-post winners to say.

[FrancoAgo]

Here the link for the live results http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/votanti/20180304/votantiCI

[Oryxslayer]

Any seat projections? How high a percentage would the FI/Lega alliance need to gain an outright majority?

There are a bunch of other minors in the alliance so it is best to just call it the 'Right.' But, to answer your question, we don't know. The new FPTP seats complicate things. As has been repeated here and by pundents elsewhere, there are an insane amount of to-close-to-call seats in the south between the Right and M5S, and a few in the cities between the Left and the Right. Its quite possible if the gaps between the alliances are large enough, for Berlusconi to potentially form a government with something like 38%. Or the M5S vote could be concentrated enough to keep Berlusconi far from the magic 50%+1.

[jaichind]

A topless Femen activist has disrupted polling in Italy's national election while ex-Premier Silvio Berlusconi was casting his ballot.

The woman, who had the words "Berlusconi, you've expired" written in black marker on her topless torso, jumped onto the table at the Milan polling station as Berlusconi was voting.

Photographers in the room to shoot the scene jostled for position amid the chaos. Berlusconi was escorted out.

News reports recalled that Femen activists disrupted Berlus

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout reports according to EuropeElects compared to 2016. Probably benifits M5S - strong south, neutral for the Right, poor red belt numbers for the Left.

[Oryxslayer]

Mind you, the 2016 referendum had high turnout in the north, and piss poor in the south, so it might not be the best comparison.

[EPG]

2016 did indeed had quite low turnout in the Mezzogiorno, and in general these numbers suggest no significant regional change in turnout since 2013. With the big caveat that the numbers in Emilia-Romagna look very low. (Unless people there don't vote by 12pm because they don't go to Mass... )

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Following is a table showing the turnout for Italian lower chamber general political elections. Turnout at 19:00 is calculated on the basis of the voters in 7,062 of 7,958 municipalities.

Region   12:00   19:00
Italy   19.4%   58.5%
 Abruzzo   19.4%   61.4%
  Basilicata   16.3%   53.1%
  Calabria   15.1%   49.5%
  Campania   17.0%   52.4%
  Emilia-Romagna   22.7%   66.2%
  Friuli-Venezia Giulia   22.6%   63.2%
  Latium   18.9%   55.5%
  Liguria   21.8%   61.3%
  Lombardy   20.9%   63.3%
  Marches   19.8%   62.6%
  Molise   17.9%   57.1%
  Piedmont   20.4%   62.0%
  Apulia   18.0%   53.7%
  Sardinia   18.3%   52.4%
  Sicily   14.3%   46.8%
  Tuscany   21.2%   63.7%
  Trentino-Alto Adige   20.9%   60.4%
  Umbria   20.6%   64.8%
  Valle d’Aosta   21.2%   59.0%
  Veneto   22.2%   64.5%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Back for these elections, as promised.

[SPQR]

Back home from the polls before going back for the long electoral night.
Personal feeling: M5S above 30%.

[SPQR]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

[jaichind]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

I recall back in 2013 exit polls were way off.  Of course they were off in a way that underestimated PdL.

[TheSaint250]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

Like, greater than 40% wave?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I wouldn't trust the exit polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

You don't mean a Jeb! meme wave, I hope...

[jaichind]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

Like, greater than 40% wave?

I think M5S + LN were polling above 40% in most pre-election polls.  If M5S went up during the blackout period and there is a "wave" for M5S and LN in exit polls I have to assume the sum of M5S and LN has to be above 45%.

[Umengus]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

Like, greater than 40% wave?

I think M5S + LN were polling above 40% in most pre-election polls.  If M5S went up during the blackout period and there is a "wave" for M5S and LN in exit polls I have to assume the sum of M5S and LN has to be above 45%.

or 50 %...

[SPQR]

M5S does not have a freakishly high %, but it sweeps plenty of FPTP seats.
Lega...well, Silvio, watch out.

Again, exit poll, and in the past they have flopped big time. But they are an official exit poll, and not made up numbers, at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is no point in speculating over rumors of exit polls.

[swf541]

There is no point in speculating over nothing.

We got nothing better to do atm