Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Tender Branson]

Question for Italian posters:

Where can you find the latest polls - masked as horse races - again ?

All regular polling sites have stopped publishing new polls because of the polling ban ...

[mvd10]

Were there any polls with crosstabs that show differences between different demographic groups?

[Mike88]

Were there any polls with crosstabs that show differences between different demographic groups?

I found an article on POLITICO that has crosstabs by professional background and others: https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-angry-election-2018-anti-establishment/

Also, this study about how the Italian electorate see Europe and themselves is quite interesting and has some crosstabs: https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/EZ_eupinions_brief_Italy_27.02.2018.pdf

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction for Italy tomorrow:

38.5% Right (18.5% Forza Italia, 14.5% Lega, 4.0% FdI, 1.5% NcI)
30.5% M5S
22.5% Center-Left (18.5% PD, 3.0% E+, 1.0% Others)
  4.5% F&E
  1.0% PaP
  1.0% CPI
  2.0% Others

Result: No coalition wins a majority of seats in the parliament.

Turnout: 69.8% (-5.4%)

M5S will easily become the largest party and will likely beat the polls again. I expect Forza Italia and the PD to battle it out for 2nd place (list vote for the Chamber of Deputies only, impossible to say who will come out ahead in terms of seats). Lega Nord will get a good result (especially in the North and Center of Italy, while also getting a respectable result in the South), but will not beat Forza Italia after all. I looked up historical results and it seems very unlikely that they will beat them in all of Italy. It would need a huge result for them in the North, but that probably won't happen.

In general, I think that the Left (PD & Co. + F&E) will underperform tomorrow, because Italians are sick and tired of the recent massive migrant inflows from Africa and the crime that came with it and they will therefore send some signal to them.

The Right should do well and profit from the migrant wave, while M5S will profit from the economic mess that Italy has still not recovered from over the past 5 years, with constant high unemployment/underemployment, low wages and still favourable conditions for populism.

[parochial boy]

Were there any polls with crosstabs that show differences between different demographic groups?

I found an article on POLITICO that has crosstabs by professional background and others: https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-angry-election-2018-anti-establishment/

Also, this study about how the Italian electorate see Europe and themselves is quite interesting and has some crosstabs: https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/EZ_eupinions_brief_Italy_27.02.2018.pdf

Neat, why do all the beach resorts love M5S?

[mvd10]

Were there any polls with crosstabs that show differences between different demographic groups?

I found an article on POLITICO that has crosstabs by professional background and others: https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-angry-election-2018-anti-establishment/

Also, this study about how the Italian electorate see Europe and themselves is quite interesting and has some crosstabs: https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/EZ_eupinions_brief_Italy_27.02.2018.pdf

Thanks! It's telling how PD overperforms with white-collar workers and even entrepeneurs. In recent years European social democratic parties have become much more "white-collar" but this is a huge gap (and as far as I know left-wing parties never made huge inroads with entrepeneurs). Left-right paradigm turned upside down or is it more complex?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The answer is that the PD is not a social democratic party.

[SPQR]

Hard to say who would form a coalition, at least a majority one. M5S is pretty much off the table for any coalition, since any coalition would include an establishment party. A grand coalition similar to Germany's would be extremely unstable, and the only other possibility I see is a minority government.

Just hopping in, like I always do before an election. Always follow the thread and issues off-and-on, until 2 weeks out, get up to speed, then try and participate in the thread.

Anyway, it actually is actually within the realm of possibility for the right-wing alliance under Berlusconi to win a majority outright. Polls before the embargo didn't put him that far off, and pollsters constantly said that there were a bunch of FPTP seats in the south between the right alliance and MS5 that were extremely close and would decide tge result. If Berlusconi gets close, but not exactly a majority, he will probably get it by flipping MPs as you do in Italian politics.

Right on point.

If the center-right wins almost all marginal FPTP seats in the south, and gets around more than 37% nationally, they have a real change at gaining an outright majority.
Essentially, the things-to-watch will be:
FPTP part:
- How PD fares in urban seats (especially in Genoa, Turin, Milan, Rome) and the "peripheries" of the so-called Red Land (so, places like Massa and Lucca in Tuscany, or Rimini and the northern part of the Marche).
- How the battle between M5S and the center-right ends in the South. There are tons of too-close-to-call seats between Campania, Puglia, Abruzzo, Calabria and Sicily between them. Again, if the right sweeps them, they have a real chance of gaining a majority even with a sub-40% national result.

PR part
- Whether PD does not go below 20% (=outright disaster) and whether the center-left coalition can manage to go above M5S. With a very good result for +Europa, it might be possible.
- Whether M5S is the first parliamentary group, and whether it can break the 30% threshold. If it were to go below its 2013 result, it would be a catastrophic defeat.
- Who gets the most votes between Forza Italia and Lega Nord
- Whether LeU can stay at 6/7%, or drop towards 4%.
- Whether small, far-left party Potere al Popolo is draining votes from M5S and LeU, as it seemed before the polls blackout.
- Whether neofascist Casapound gets more than 1%

[SPQR]

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.
What remains to be seen is how undecideds will break (reminder: many of them voted for PD in 2013 and/or 2014), and whether there were any structural errors in the polls.

[Tender Branson]

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.
What remains to be seen is how undecideds will break (reminder: many of them voted for PD in 2013 and/or 2014), and whether there were any structural errors in the polls.

I think if turnout is higher than projected (and it is projected to be really low this time for Italian standards: 65-70%), so maybe in the 72-78% range, it would be better for the PD. They would likely not drop below 20% in such a scenario.

[SPQR]

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.
What remains to be seen is how undecideds will break (reminder: many of them voted for PD in 2013 and/or 2014), and whether there were any structural errors in the polls.

I think if turnout is higher than projected (and it is projected to be really low this time for Italian standards: 65-70%), so maybe in the 72-78% range, it would be better for the PD. They would likely not drop below 20% in such a scenario.

Not one poll has shown PD below 20%, so that would be the surprise, not the opposite.

[Tender Branson]

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.
What remains to be seen is how undecideds will break (reminder: many of them voted for PD in 2013 and/or 2014), and whether there were any structural errors in the polls.

I think if turnout is higher than projected (and it is projected to be really low this time for Italian standards: 65-70%), so maybe in the 72-78% range, it would be better for the PD. They would likely not drop below 20% in such a scenario.

Not one poll has shown PD below 20%, so that would be the surprise, not the opposite.

True. But the polls have shown a significant downward trend for them in the past weeks and the even more left-wing parties saw some gains instead. And M5S is cutting deeply into their electorate as well.

So, it could be likely that the PD is heading the way of the SPD tomorrow ... but higher-than-projected turnout could prevent them from a total disaster, like it did for the SPÖ last year.

[Famous Mortimer]

A right-wing-M5S coalition is a foregone conclusion, no?

[jaichind]

Does anyone have info on how the center-right and center-left alliances are distributing the 232 deputies and 116 senate FPTP seats?  I assume M5S will have a candidate in every FPTP seat and both center-right and center-left alliances have perfect alliances (no seat where more than one candidate from the alliance is contesting)?

The way I figure it, as LN is allocated enough seats to run and both LN and M5S does well enough in the FPTP seats I can see a M5S-LN-FdI majority if PD under-performs.

[Oryxslayer]

A right-wing-M5S coalition is a foregone conclusion, no?

What? M5S currently have said no to most coalitions, and its probably unlikely they enter one unless M5S is leading it. For example, Lega + M5S will probably have a majority, but will most likely not join togeather do to opposition on most issues that are not Europe or migrants. Rather, it looks like Berlusconi's Right will have a plurality at minimum, perhaps a majority, most likely something like 42-48% of seats. That probably means he pulls MPs and parties to form a government, or ditches the farther right for center-center left parties.


Also on the topic of PD below 20% individually. It is a possibility, but if it happens, it will probably be because of E+ rising in the last moment s of the campaign. The PD has already lost the working class types who would leave, and the swingyer types have already broken for Berlusconi. If their going under 20, it's because loyal leftists vote for other left parties.

[Pandaguineapig]

If the center right coalition wins a majority and LN wins more seats than FI, does Salvini become PM? Or does Bersculoni still get to pick a puppet?

[jaichind]

If the center right coalition wins a majority and LN wins more seats than FI, does Salvini become PM? Or does Bersculoni still get to pick a puppet?

I think LN and FI already made a deal that the larger of the two parties gets to pick the Center-Right bloc candidate for PM.

[Former President tack50]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

Yeah, a poll closing time of 23:00 is absurd. Even 9pm or 10pm is too late.

The ideal opening times IMO are 8am to 5-6pm, so that the counting is done by 8-9pm and everyone can go to bed.

It's extremely idiotic to keep the polls open that long so that people have to count votes the whole night ...

To be fair it also depends on how fast you count votes. UK elections literally take the entire night and part of the next day. Meanwhile here by midnight you basically already have 99% of the vote in.

IMO the best hours are probably something like 8am-8pm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/969956753134809089

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To be fair it also depends on how fast you count votes. UK elections literally take the entire night and part of the next day. Meanwhile here by midnight you basically already have 99% of the vote in.

Thing about the UK is that a) only final results for each constituency are released unlike in normal places where each polling district declares and b) postal votes are counted at the same time as day votes rather than the next day or even longer. The latter reason (not the first!) is also why counting is 'slower' in Germany.

[FrancoAgo]

Does anyone have info on how the center-right and center-left alliances are distributing the 232 deputies and 116 senate FPTP seats?  I assume M5S will have a candidate in every FPTP seat and both center-right and center-left alliances have perfect alliances (no seat where more than one candidate from the alliance is contesting)?

The way I figure it, as LN is allocated enough seats to run and both LN and M5S does well enough in the FPTP seats I can see a M5S-LN-FdI majority if PD under-performs.

by electoral law for each alliance you can have only one candidate for the FPTP seats

[DavidB.]

This might be a retarded question, but I heard some talk about a FI-PD grand coalition, regardless of the alliances. However, this is very implausible, as the numbers just don't seem to add up even when factoring in FPTP, right?

[FrancoAgo]

This might be a retarded question, but I heard some talk about a FI-PD grand coalition, regardless of the alliances. However, this is very implausible, as the numbers just don't seem to add up even when factoring in FPTP, right?

imho FI-PD post election alliance is out, they have not the numbers
also FI + all PD alliance has not the numbers

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/969956753134809089

I thought M5S got rid of the clown...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

PD - 23%
E+ - 2%
I - 1%
CP - 1%

(Centre-Left - 27%)

LN - 18%
FI - 17%
FdL - 3%
NcL - 1%

(centre-right - 39%)

5SM - 25%

LeU - 5%