German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

Yep.  As much as I am aligned with AfD I always thought it was a mistake for CSU to try to co-op AfD on the premise that if you put out an imitation brand the people go with the genuine original brand every time.  Seems that this was not the case and the CSU contained the bleeding to AfD.   The CSU gain from non-voters is a shock.  I was certain they will all go AdD or Greens.

They essentially did the same as the VVD in the Netherlands (but much more convincing and believable): a right-wing tune on immigration and multiculturalism + exclusion of the political force to its right. It was credible because they could point to Berlin for the immigration policy of 2015. Most voters in Bavaria dislike AfD but want 2015 to never happen again and disapprove of Merkel's handling of the crisis. There is an enormous number of voters there, and most of them already voted CSU. Turning to the right was really the only thing CSU could do, and I think they did it very well.

I didn't expect it, but in hindsight CSU doing well with non-voters isn't surprising either. This happened to CDU in one of the other state elections recently (and to the ÖVP, and to VVD in the Dutch election too, for that matter). There are quite a few stability-oriented people who don't vote when everything is okay but who dislike instability and will choose the "responsible" center-right option when stability is seemingly jeopardized and a safe pair of hands is needed (2015, Chemnitz, rise AfD, rise Greens...).

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

Such a partisan, left-wing populist bullsh**t!
The Greens and the Left march side by side with the left-wing fascist Antifa, which is willing to resort to violence, and with anti-constitutional parties like the MLPD and the KPD, they openly support musicians who call for violence against the police, and anyone who supports or votes Greens/Left in 2018 knows that they approve of Turk-Arab parallel societies and Turk-Arab family clans and of Sharia and that they refuse to deport criminal asylum seekers.

You're complaining about "muh violent anti-cop music" in 2018? Hasn't this been studied? Hasn't it been known for like 20 years that the popularity of "muh violent music! muh rap!" has no correlation with crime rates? So... you're just the upset the left supports freedom of speech? How dare they, I guess.

And when you say anti-constitutional parties, you mean constitutional. Last time I checked the MLPD and KPD weren't illegal.

Really wondering whether you have the same standards for Rechtsrock, NS-Rap, the NPD and what have you.

[Aurelio21]

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

Such a partisan, left-wing populist bullsh**t!
The Greens and the Left march side by side with the left-wing fascist Antifa, which is willing to resort to violence, and with anti-constitutional parties like the MLPD and the KPD, they openly support musicians who call for violence against the police, and anyone who supports or votes Greens/Left in 2018 knows that they approve of Turk-Arab parallel societies and Turk-Arab family clans and of Sharia and that they refuse to deport criminal asylum seekers.

at Ἅιδης:
I definitely approve your post. Why is the SPD losing: They have abondoned their core constituency of workers , blue-collar and white-collar alike. This started with HartzIV and is continued by an absurd following of PC and identity politics. Just like the former Democrats in West Virginia and e g the Iron Range of Minnesota!
As the crossover numbers clearly show: Even the CSU with their message "We need stability instead of chaos" is more appealing for socially conservative and economical liberal ( i e populist) voters.
The other core constituency, the affluent urban and suburban social-liberal voters are leaving now to the Greens. They are 100% identity politics.

The CSU losses as a Big-Tent-Party mirror those of the SPD: Dissatisfied voters leave to the FW(CSU Vers. 2.0 with more coziness) or to a real right-conservative-to-right-populist party AfD.
Those who are opportunistic center-left voters within the CSU had a real alternative with the Greens, who would need their own Winfried Kretschmann (Green PM of Baden-Wuerttemberg) for further success.
They stopped the hemorrhaging with the classic CDU/CSU channeling of Konrad Adenauer's "No Experiments". This reverted the devastating trend with blue-collar voters.


at DavidB: You're absolutely right, Mr Seehofer saved the day via appealing against impending instability and the right message about the undeniable success of the CSU economic policies. Yet he caused the problem in the first place since he backed off some conservative principles as Minister of the Interior.

[republicanbayer]

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

I more or less agree, but the German media paints a totally different picture. Seehofer has to resign, the CSU paid the price for being so right-wing, Söder is "outrageously lucky" (SZ) and the Greens prove that people love open borders. Left-wing journalists attacked the CSU for months and they will certainly not stop now.
I hope Seehofer stays. He hasn't accomplished anything, but when he said "we got it" after last year's election, he really got it.

[EPG]

I really don't know what this is about. I defend the CSU and their right to take their line on Muslim immigration, which was extremely high in Germany a few years ago. But it is unambiguous that the main force behind the decline of the SPD was not good ol' boys angry about transgender and pronouns, but a collapse toward the Greens. It's not a surprise that people on this forum are more angry about anti-fascists than neo-Nazis. But come on, recognise reality here that your rise is inciting the rise of forces against you, like the Greens. AfD mainly gained from CSU. Greens mainly gained from SPD. Disregard models you cannot prove or even throw out a window.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

Such a partisan, left-wing populist bullsh**t!
The Greens and the Left march side by side with the left-wing fascist Antifa, which is willing to resort to violence, and with anti-constitutional parties like the MLPD and the KPD, they openly support musicians who call for violence against the police, and anyone who supports or votes Greens/Left in 2018 knows that they approve of Turk-Arab parallel societies and Turk-Arab family clans and of Sharia and that they refuse to deport criminal asylum seekers.

You're complaining about "muh violent anti-cop music" in 2018? Hasn't this been studied? Hasn't it been known for like 20 years that the popularity of "muh violent music! muh rap!" has no correlation with crime rates? So... you're just the upset the left supports freedom of speech? How dare they, I guess.

And when you say anti-constitutional parties, you mean constitutional. Last time I checked the MLPD and KPD weren't illegal.

I wasn't talking about rap music. And the NPD isn't illegal either, but anti-constitutional nevertheless.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 27 out of 91 constituencies being counted (most of them in the eastern half of Bavaria, none in the three big cities as of yet):


All direct seats have gone to the CSU as of yet.

[DavidB.]

I more or less agree, but the German media paints a totally different picture. Seehofer has to resign, the CSU paid the price for being so right-wing, Söder is "outrageously lucky" (SZ) and the Greens prove that people love open borders. Left-wing journalists attacked the CSU for months and they will certainly not stop now.

I believe you guys have a word for this phenomenon

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

at Ἅιδης:
I definitely approve your post.

Thank you. I knew that you're a decent guy.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 34 out of 91 constituencies being counted (most of them in the eastern half of Bavaria, none in the three big cities as of yet):


All direct seats have gone to the CSU as of yet.

[jaichind]

Intermediate results after 34 out of 91 constituencies being counted (most of them in the eastern half of Bavaria, none in the three big cities as of yet):


All direct seats have gone to the CSU as of yet.

Nothing from München yet so the Green vote share should jump once results from there comes in.

[palandio]

I really don't know what this is about. I defend the CSU and their right to take their line on Muslim immigration, which was extremely high in Germany a few years ago. But it is unambiguous that the main force behind the decline of the SPD was not good ol' boys angry about transgender and pronouns, but a collapse toward the Greens. It's not a surprise that people on this forum are more angry about anti-fascists than neo-Nazis. But come on, recognise reality here that your rise is inciting the rise of forces against you, like the Greens. AfD mainly gained from CSU. Greens mainly gained from SPD. Disregard models you cannot prove or even throw out a window.

Net voter flows actually seem to be quite complex:
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bayern-waehlerwanderung-101.html

[EPG]

I really don't know what this is about. I defend the CSU and their right to take their line on Muslim immigration, which was extremely high in Germany a few years ago. But it is unambiguous that the main force behind the decline of the SPD was not good ol' boys angry about transgender and pronouns, but a collapse toward the Greens. It's not a surprise that people on this forum are more angry about anti-fascists than neo-Nazis. But come on, recognise reality here that your rise is inciting the rise of forces against you, like the Greens. AfD mainly gained from CSU. Greens mainly gained from SPD. Disregard models you cannot prove or even throw out a window.

Net voter flows actually seem to be quite complex:
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bayern-waehlerwanderung-101.html

I don't regard these models as being serious, something I'd bet my house on.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 38 out of 91 constituencies being counted (first one from one of the three big cities, Augsburg):

[Oryxslayer]

Greens up 11% since last election in that Augsburg seat. Chances they take more then just Munich, say Nuremberg?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Greens up 11% since last election in that Augsburg seat. Chances they take more then just Munich, say Nuremberg?

Some pundits predict a Green win in Nowitzki City.

[palandio]

I really don't know what this is about. I defend the CSU and their right to take their line on Muslim immigration, which was extremely high in Germany a few years ago. But it is unambiguous that the main force behind the decline of the SPD was not good ol' boys angry about transgender and pronouns, but a collapse toward the Greens. It's not a surprise that people on this forum are more angry about anti-fascists than neo-Nazis. But come on, recognise reality here that your rise is inciting the rise of forces against you, like the Greens. AfD mainly gained from CSU. Greens mainly gained from SPD. Disregard models you cannot prove or even throw out a window.

Net voter flows actually seem to be quite complex:
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bayern-waehlerwanderung-101.html

I don't regard these models as being serious, something I'd bet my house on.

You are right not to consider these models the gospel, but I think that you cannot disregard them completely. Incoming regional results show a strong correlation between SPD losses and Green gains. But usually the SPD losses are higher in the constituencies that are already counted, which skew heavily rural and Eastern/Northern.

My theory is that there are some long term voter movements between the political camps, too. But that the rise of the Greens and the fall of the SPD during the last weeks and months has been mostly a result of direct movement from SPD towards the Greens.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

More than half of the constituencies have been counted!

Intermediate results after 46 out of 91 constituencies being counted:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 50 out of 91 constituencies being counted:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 56 out of 91 constituencies being counted:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 62 out of 91 constituencies being counted:

[jaichind]

Still nothing from München

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Still nothing from München

The Bavarian way of vote-counting reminds me of Georgia and Virginia.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 66 out of 91 constituencies being counted; vote-tallying in Augsburg completed:

[Lechasseur]

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

Yep, I agree. I'm very happy with the result too.

[Lechasseur]

Fourth ARD projection:

Very strong CSU result given that the Union is at 26% nationally. Almost certainly means that the move to the right has been successful in attracting people like me who would have gone AfD otherwise; also explains the underwhelming AfD result.

Agreed