German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Fourth ARD projection:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?

[Aurelio21]

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?

Yes, but I had to assign my "Other"-votes to small parties without mass media representation. And the BP with an extraordinary presence was quite tempting ;-)

But let's wait the rest of counting the votes. To quote a real genius regarding power: "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes." ;-)


Comparing the numbers from the exit polls to preliminary results: Maybe someone gave Mr Seehofer and Mr Soeder the mobile number of Mrs Conway, Mr Kobach and Mr Kemp ;-)

[republicanbayer]

Fourth ARD projection:

Pretty big improvement for the CSU. 37% would be a "good" result for them. Makes all the 33% polls that pushed the "CSU support is collapsing" narrative even more questionable.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Fourth ARD projection:

Pretty big improvement for the CSU. 37% would be a "good" result for them. Makes all the 33% polls that pushed the "CSU support is collapsing" narrative even more questionable.

Jörg Schönenborn said it was the absentee ballot that resulted in the CSU upswing.

[President Johnson]

Calling it now: A CSU/FW coalition will be formed.

[republicanbayer]

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?

Yes, but I had to assign my "Other"-votes to small parties without mass media representation. And the BP with an extraordinary presence was quite tempting ;-)

But let's wait the rest of counting the votes. To quote a real genius regarding power: ""It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes.""

Of course, your model is right, but a huge anti-Bayernpartei conspiracy among the vote counters is to blame for the fact that the BP won't get 6%. Btw, both Die Partei and the Pirates both have more follower on social media than the BP.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?

Yes, but I had to assign my "Other"-votes to small parties without mass media representation. And the BP with an extraordinary presence was quite tempting ;-)

But let's wait the rest of counting the votes. To quote a real genius regarding power: ""It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes.""

Of course, your model is right, but a huge anti-Bayernpartei conspiracy among the vote counters is to blame for the fact that the BP won't get 6%. Btw, both Die Partei and the Pirates both have more follower on social media than the BP.

LOL. I saw what you did there.

[Aurelio21]

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?

Yes, but I had to assign my "Other"-votes to small parties without mass media representation. And the BP with an extraordinary presence was quite tempting ;-)

But let's wait the rest of counting the votes. To quote a real genius regarding power: ""It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes.""

Of course, your model is right, but a huge anti-Bayernpartei conspiracy among the vote counters is to blame for the fact that the BP won't get 6%. Btw, both Die Partei and the Pirates both have more follower on social media than the BP.

;-) Thanks for your approval. As you are living in Bavaria, I bet in a few days Mr Soeder will brag in local newspapers how great his pals Kobach and Kemp helped with their practical experience. ;-)
;-)

I simply assigned to many voters to the "Other" fraction. At least I can admit where I erred.

[DavidB.]

Fourth ARD projection:

Very strong CSU result given that the Union is at 26% nationally. Almost certainly means that the move to the right has been successful in attracting people like me who would have gone AfD otherwise; also explains the underwhelming AfD result.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Fourth ZDF projection:

[Oryxslayer]

I don't see why a CSU-FW majority coalition won't be formed with these results.

[jaichind]

So in the end it was CSU that over-performed pre-election polls.   I figured that would be Greens or AfD but it ended being CSU.

[EPG]

Er... pretty edgy times for FDP, no?!

[Aurelio21]

@republicanbayer

What are you doing? "He-Who-Must-Not-Have-Committed-Collusion-And-Not-Be-Named" cannot be behind this. Ask Mr Trump, on whom he definitely has no Compromat of.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The shifts of votes are finally in!!!

[DavidB.]

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

[jaichind]

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

Yep.  As much as I am aligned with AfD I always thought it was a mistake for CSU to try to co-op AfD on the premise that if you put out an imitation brand the people go with the genuine original brand every time.  Seems that this was not the case and the CSU contained the bleeding to AfD.   The CSU gain from non-voters is a shock.  I was certain they will all go AdD or Greens.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The first four constituencies have been counted:

Kehlheim, Straubing, Deggendorf and Dingolfing go to the CSU, of course.
In Kehlheim and Dingolfingen, the Free Voters are the runner-ups, in Straubing and Deggendorf it's the AfD.

[jaichind]

It seems the SPD+Green+Linke vote share if anything fell from 2013. 

[EPG]

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

Such a partisan, left-wing populist bullsh**t!
The Greens and the Left march side by side with the left-wing fascist Antifa, which is willing to resort to violence, and with anti-constitutional parties like the MLPD and the KPD, they openly support musicians who call for violence against the police, and anyone who supports or votes Greens/Left in 2018 knows that they approve of Turk-Arab parallel societies and Turk-Arab family clans and of Sharia and that they refuse to deport criminal asylum seekers.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 8 out of 91 constituencies counted:


All of the 8 direct seats go to the CSU.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 11 out of 91 constituencies counted (10 of them in the eastern half of Bavaria, 1 in Swabia):

[BundouYMB]

But CSU didn't copy the AfD. The CSU is slightly wary of Muslim immigration. The AfD literally supports the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from Germany. Anyone who supports or votes AfD in 2018 knows they march side by side with the neo-Nazis. The gap is very large, though the coalition would be easy to form, as has always been the case with German racialism.

Such a partisan, left-wing populist bullsh**t!
The Greens and the Left march side by side with the left-wing fascist Antifa, which is willing to resort to violence, and with anti-constitutional parties like the MLPD and the KPD, they openly support musicians who call for violence against the police, and anyone who supports or votes Greens/Left in 2018 knows that they approve of Turk-Arab parallel societies and Turk-Arab family clans and of Sharia and that they refuse to deport criminal asylum seekers.

You're complaining about "muh violent anti-cop music" in 2018? Hasn't this been studied? Hasn't it been known for like 20 years that the popularity of "muh violent music! muh rap!" has no correlation with crime rates? So... you're just the upset the left supports freedom of speech? How dare they, I guess.

And when you say anti-constitutional parties, you mean constitutional. Last time I checked the MLPD and KPD weren't illegal.