German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Bavarian state broadcaster BR aired a TV duel. But instead of a duel between Governor Söder and SPD top-candidate Natascha Kohnen they chose Green top-candidate Ludwig Hartmann as Söder's duelist. That was definitely a punch in the gut for the SPD... 🥊🤢

I accidentally watched the final minutes of that debate yesterday evening (I get basically all of the German TV here of course) and there was a funny moment when the debate was about killing wolves when they get into residential areas and the Green Hartmann was speaking about it: he pointed to Söder while speaking about the so-called "Problem Wolf", implying that Söder is also one ...

LOL. A reference to the "Problembär Stoiber"?

[Beezer]

One interesting side-effect of these new electoral dynamics should be the selection of judges to Germany's constitutional court. Half of them are elected by the Bundestag, half by the Bundesrat, in both instances a two-thirds majority is required. Of course traditionally both the CDU/CSU and SPD had more than enough votes to alternately nominate and confirm judges but that is a thing of the past now.

[TheSaint250]

Germany, Forsa poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 15%
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9%

GREEN DOMINATION

[Diouf]

The beautiful symmetry of six is getting closer and closer. We just need CDU/CSU to drop a few points further, and FDP and Linke to rise a couple of points.

[pilskonzept]

The beautiful symmetry of six is getting closer and closer. We just need CDU/CSU to drop a few points further, and FDP and Linke to rise a couple of points.

I was fine with the symmetry of five, thank you very much.

[Beezer]

We're gonna need a bigger Bundestag ... 900 seats

[DC Al Fine]

The beautiful symmetry of six is getting closer and closer. We just need CDU/CSU to drop a few points further, and FDP and Linke to rise a couple of points.

Wonder what that would look like on a FPTP map.

[Former President tack50]

We're gonna need a bigger Bundestag ... 900 seats

Honestly I feel that Germany should cap the Bundestag at 598 seats even if that won't lead to perfect proportionality.

An slightly unproportional Bundestag is a lesser evil compared to one that is too large to be useful.

Either that or simply repeal MMP and move to standard party list PR.

[President Johnson]

A study on populism has just been pubished. About a third (30.4%) of Germans are generally populists, while 36% are in part.





Intersting is this graph: Percentage of voters who said they would never consider voting for this party. Interestingly, the SPD has the biggest potential:



Tagesschau

We're gonna need a bigger Bundestag ... 900 seats

This is totally nuts. Yes, we need a cap at 598 or 630 seats. The ideal solution would be to get rid the of the AfD and Left. We have too many parties. I want back to the Bonner Republik.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

A study on populism has just been pubished. About a third (30.4%) of Germans are generally populists, while 36% are in part.

I wonder who defines what opinions are supposed to be "populist" and if those people also acknowledge that left-wing populism does exist.

Intersting is this graph: Percentage of voters who said they would never consider voting for this party. Interestingly, the SPD has the biggest potential:

Bradley effect...

This is totally nuts. Yes, we need a cap at 598 or 630 seats. The ideal solution would be to get rid the of the AfD and Left. We have too many parties. I want back to the Bonner Republik.

What we need is a majority voting system.
By the way, do you know the official reason why the number of constituencies (and therefore members of parliament) have been retained after Reunification?

[Ethelberth]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

[mvd10]

A study on populism has just been pubished. About a third (30.4%) of Germans are generally populists, while 36% are in part.





Intersting is this graph: Percentage of voters who said they would never consider voting for this party. Interestingly, the SPD has the biggest potential:



Tagesschau

We're gonna need a bigger Bundestag ... 900 seats

This is totally nuts. Yes, we need a cap at 598 or 630 seats. The ideal solution would be to get rid the of the AfD and Left. We have too many parties. I want back to the Bonner Republik.

I think phrasing is a part of it. When Dutch pollsters ask voters which parties they could potentially vote for they usually get way lower numbers (maybe 30-35% for the bigger parties). I guess people are just less inclined to say they would absolutely never vote for a certain party .

[Yeahsayyeah]

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For what it's worth, in a uniform swing scenario with

CDU/CSU: 28
AfD: 18
SPD: 17
Grüne: 16
Linke: 10
FDP: 9

you get soemthing like

CDU: 145 (-40)
SPD: 65 (+6)
CSU: 46 (+/- 0)
AfD: 31 (+28)
Grüne: 6 (+5)
Linke: 6 (+1)

In the East (+ the 2 mixed Berlin constituencies):

AfD: 31 (+28)
CDU: 15 (-29)
Linke: 6 (+1)
Grüne 2 (+1)
SPD: 1 (-1)

CDU losing 5 and AfD gaining 5,5 per cent would win them many CDU/AfD marginals. AfD would sweep Saxony but Leipzig II (Linke). Linke would gain Rostock. SPD would hold Potsdam. Greens would win the mixed Berlin constituencies (but likely also their eastern parts).

In the west things are quite boring. SPD could regain some marginals from CDU. CSU's constituency wins are highly unresponsive to their losses because of fractured opposition.  Greens would gain Tempelhof-Schöneberg and 3 Baden-Württemberg constituencies from CDU (Stuttgart I, Karlsruhe-Stadt, Freiburg).

[Hnv1]

So why are the CSU crashing in Bavaria after they had a hard turn right? you would suppose that would stop the spill to the right, but I guess there's a different underlying reason to it.

[Yeahsayyeah]

So why are the CSU crashing in Bavaria after they had a hard turn right? you would suppose that would stop the spill to the right, but I guess there's a different underlying reason to it.

Because it is a false assumption that a hard turn right and strengthening AfD voters in their assumption that "migration is the mother of all problems" will automatically let them come back to you.

[Beezer]

So why are the CSU crashing in Bavaria after they had a hard turn right? you would suppose that would stop the spill to the right, but I guess there's a different underlying reason to it.

I think the most important factor is that it wasn't a hard right turn. Since 2015 the CSU has been playing a game of chicken with Merkel only to cave in at the last moment. Seehofer's supposedly major asylum u-turn during the summer has led to a handful of people being deported. A true right turn could have worked out (see Kurz in Austria). What doesn't work is raising expectations only to then disappoint voters.

[Beezer]

BTW, the AfD has now for the very first time surpassed the SPD in a poll of polls as well...

[palandio]

Fascinating to watch AfD and Greens go up (and sometimes down) so completely parallelly. They really are two sides of the same medal.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

CDU: 145 (-40)
SPD: 65 (+6)
CSU: 46 (+/- 0)
AfD: 31 (+28)
Grüne: 6 (+5)
Linke: 6 (+1)

I'm not so sure about it.
Munich is divided into four districts. I can see the Greens winning two or three districts.
Furthermore the Greens would win some districts in Baden-Württemberg.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

[Ethelberth]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

That would be possible but almost improbable.
If there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, each would have received ~5,2% of the vote and ~15 direct seats.

[President Johnson]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

That would be possible but almost improbable.
If there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, each would have received ~5,2% of the vote and ~15 direct seats.

LOL, think of that: The largest party, at 5.4%, gets the chancellor.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

LOL, think of that: The largest party, at 5.4%, gets the chancellor.

We almost had such a case in Berlin. 😅

[Vosem]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

That would be possible but almost improbable.
If there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, each would have received ~5,2% of the vote and ~15 direct seats.

LOL, think of that: The largest party, at 5.4%, gets the chancellor.

The point where the threshold starts coming closer and closer to the results the actual parties get, and so you get serious parties -- contenders for government -- occasionally finishing below it, is a dangerous one for democracy; under those circumstances actual majorities can be reached with well under 50% of the vote. This was how the AKP rose to power in Turkey in the first place.

The German system can handle 6 serious parties like it has now, but it can't really reach more than about 10 or so without the identities of who finishes above and below the threshold starting to be more meaningful for the results than how much the actual parties get.