German Elections & Politics

[EPG]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

That would be possible but almost improbable.
If there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, each would have received ~5,2% of the vote and ~15 direct seats.

LOL, think of that: The largest party, at 5.4%, gets the chancellor.

The point where the threshold starts coming closer and closer to the results the actual parties get, and so you get serious parties -- contenders for government -- occasionally finishing below it, is a dangerous one for democracy; under those circumstances actual majorities can be reached with well under 50% of the vote. This was how the AKP rose to power in Turkey in the first place.

The German system can handle 6 serious parties like it has now, but it can't really reach more than about 10 or so without the identities of who finishes above and below the threshold starting to be more meaningful for the results than how much the actual parties get.

2013 already being a good example.

[Tender Branson]

The CSU hits another record low, just like the SPD and surprisingly even the AfD (which already polled at 14-15%):



State election is in 1 week.

[President Johnson]

The CSU hits another record low, just like the SPD and surprisingly even the AfD (which already polled at 14-15%):



State election is in 1 week.

This is brutal. The CSU will get shreddered on October 14 while the Greens sadly absorb the left-wing support at the expense of the Social Democrats. The big question is what kind of a coalition would be formed under such a result? If the CSU drops to 35% or lower, I have difficulty to imagine Markus Söder can stay in office. I think a CSU-Greens coalition with Ilse Aigner as MP is possible.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This is brutal. The CSU will get shreddered on October 14 while the Greens sadly absorb the left-wing support at the expense of the Social Democrats. The big question is what kind of a coalition would be formed under such a result? If the CSU drops to 35% or lower, I have difficulty to imagine Markus Söder can stay in office. I think a CSU-Greens coalition with Ilse Aigner as MP is possible.

I still think they are going form a CSU-FW-FDP coalition (as long as the Lindner Party won't puss out again.) But regarding you gubernatorial prediction, I agree with you: Aigner will succeed Söder.
Remember, the Free Voters politicians are still way more favored than the Green politicians by the Bavarian electorate.


By the way, am I the only one who observes striking parallels between recent Texan and Bavarian politics?

[President Johnson]

This is brutal. The CSU will get shreddered on October 14 while the Greens sadly absorb the left-wing support at the expense of the Social Democrats. The big question is what kind of a coalition would be formed under such a result? If the CSU drops to 35% or lower, I have difficulty to imagine Markus Söder can stay in office. I think a CSU-Greens coalition with Ilse Aigner as MP is possible.

I still think they are going form a CSU-FW-FDP coalition (as long as the Lindner Party won't puss out again.) But regarding you gubernatorial prediction, I agree with you: Aigner will succeed Söder.
Remember, the Free Voters politicians are still way more favored than the Green politicians by the Bavarian electorate.


By the way, am I the only one who observes striking parallels between recent Texan and Bavarian politics?

Aren't the Free Voters defected CSU members? I don't think the CSU really wants such a coalition, but they will do everything to stay in power with the fewest possible concessions. An all but CSU/AfD coalition of the Greens, SPD, Free Voters and FDP would be interesting. I don't see it happening though.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Aren't the Free Voters defected CSU members? I don't think the CSU really wants such a coalition, but they will do everything to stay in power with the fewest possible concessions. An all but CSU/AfD coalition of the Greens, SPD, Free Voters and FDP would be interesting. I don't see it happening though.

That's how Wilhelm Hoegner came into power (the second time).
But the coalition between SPD, BP, BHE and FDP didn't even last one whole term.

Cooperations between the CSU and the FW are quite common at municipal level, thus I don't know why it shouldn't work.

[Zinneke]

The CSU hits another record low, just like the SPD and surprisingly even the AfD (which already polled at 14-15%):



State election is in 1 week.

This Tender Take reminds me of the time Ron Paul came second in an Iowa Straw Poll and everybody was doing their best to avoid mentioning his name on Fox : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWet2SbU07c

[Tender Branson]

ZDF poll for next Sunday's Bayern state election:

Only 50% of voters say they have made up their minds so far about which party to vote for, an unusually low score (which could still lead to some surprises) !



Direct vote for Governor:



Which coalition do you prefer (CSU+SPD and CSU+FW is not even possible, lol):

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

[Tender Branson]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

In that case, they should play "Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock" ...

[Polkergeist]

If we get these vote-shares next Sunday are we heading towards an epic overhang/compensatory seat blowout?

ZDF poll for next Sunday's Bayern state election:

Only 50% of voters say they have made up their minds so far about which party to vote for, an unusually low score (which could still lead to some surprises) !

[republicanbayer]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.

[Tender Branson]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.

Why would she be too young ?

She's 1 year older than Sebastian Kurz and he became Chancellor.

(or is there some age limit in Bayern to become Governor ?)

[republicanbayer]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.

Why would she be too young ?

She's 1 year older than Sebastian Kurz and he became Chancellor.

(or is there some age limit in Bayern to become Governor ?)

The Bavarian Constitution states in Article 44 that the Minister President must be a Bavarian who is at least 40 years old. So Schulze will be too young in 2023 as well. Of course, Kurz shows that age limits are absolutly ridiculous.

[Tender Branson]

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.

Why would she be too young ?

She's 1 year older than Sebastian Kurz and he became Chancellor.

(or is there some age limit in Bayern to become Governor ?)

The Bavarian Constitution states in Article 44 that the Minister President must be a Bavarian who is at least 40 years old. So Schulze will be too young in 2023 as well. Of course, Kurz shows that age limits are absolutly ridiculous.

Those age limits to become Governor (or US Senator or POTUS) are a joke in my opinion.

There are a lot of 18 year olds who are better suited and have more skills and street smarts than the average establishment politician and who'd be better suited to lead a state or a country.

18 should be the passive voting and candidate age for offices.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Bavarian Constitution states in Article 44 that the Minister President must be a Bavarian who is at least 40 years old. So Schulze will be too young in 2023 as well. Of course, Kurz shows that age limits are absolutly ridiculous.

You have age limits down there? Aha? Learning never stops...
But that at least answers my question.

[TheSaint250]

So what is the most likely coalition? CSU+FW+FDP? I can’t really see Grüne working with CSU.

[Tender Branson]

Probably the final poll ahead of the very important Bayern state election on Sunday:

[jaichind]

So which is more likely post-election: CSU-Green or CSU-FW-FDP ?

[Tender Branson]

So which is more likely post-election: CSU-Green or CSU-FW-FDP ?

Will depend on Ilse Aigner and the CSU leadership and what they prefer ...

I assume that Söder will be out as Governor with such a result.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So which is more likely post-election: CSU-Green or CSU-FW-FDP ?

I'm gonna stick with the latter. The similarities between the three parties are closer than between the CSU and the Greens.

By the way, in the last weeks the left-leaning media have been introducing several fromer CSU members who have turned their backs on their party and are going to vote Green.
All of them are farmers and have a strong Bavarian accent, of course... lol

[pilskonzept]

So which is more likely post-election: CSU-Green or CSU-FW-FDP ?

I'm gonna stick with the latter. The similarities between the three parties are closer than between the CSU and the Greens.

By the way, in the last weeks the left-leaning media have been introducing several fromer CSU members who have turned their backs on their party and are going to vote Green.
All of them are farmers and have a strong Bavarian accent, of course... lol

It's a shame that Sepp Daxenberger isn't around anymore.

[RedPrometheus]

I think the polls are underestimating the Greens. There is clear momentum on their side and I think that the SPD will land below 10% for sure in the end and the CSU might land below 30%.

If both members of Berlin's "grand" coalition lose more than 30% combined it would be quite amazing. And the Greens could overtake the SPD in Hessia too.

[jaichind]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016