KY-PPP (D): Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) ahead of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[badgate]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

+1

[Morning in Atlas]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away. I'm actually not surprised by this, not that this won't be a close race, it certainly will, but to think Grimes will win is a little too confident... so far.

Don't say the first part again here. You sound almost verbatim like one of our more echo chamberesque Republicans (to put it nicely), and if you don't want to seem like a hack, ignoring inconvenient truths isn't a good idea.

[eric82oslo]

Yeah. There's no wonder why female politicians are hot these days. Olympia Snowe has shown the world what great leadership should be all about. Bipartisanship, in one word. If there's one thing voters across America are worried about these days, it's that there's far too little bipartisanship in Congress. Women are known for communicating effortlessly and to make great deals, even if it might be somewhat inconvenient. Men are not. So for the vast majority of Americans, it will be an easy choice when you put a female politician against a male one. Which probably will be the case both in Kentucky as well as Georgia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

The great and the good of the Republican Party buy into this stuff.

[ElectionsGuy]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

There are a lot of republican polls like this too (Rasmussen) that overstate the republicans chances of winning elections, this isn't a "talking point", this is stating what I think is the truth with PPP as they have a history of overstating democrats. I'm basically saying I have less trust in certain polls because they have a bias that they've proven over the years, Quinnipac in my opinion is a very trustworthy poll as they've been accurate much more often that I've examined.

[opebo]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

There are a lot of republican polls like this too (Rasmussen) that overstate the republicans chances of winning elections, this isn't a "talking point", this is stating what I think is the truth with PPP as they have a history of overstating democrats. I'm basically saying I have less trust in certain polls because they have a bias that they've proven over the years, Quinnipac in my opinion is a very trustworthy poll as they've been accurate much more often that I've examined.

No, buddy, I don't know the details, but it is an established fact that PPP has been one of the most accurate polsters over the last couple/few elections, and that this whole argument of the GOP that 'the polls are biased' is perfect self-deceiving rot.  It doesn't help, don't you see?  Face the facts and deal with them, that's what's necessary for winning.

That said, there's no way Grimes beats McConnell.

[bgwah]

We'll get lots of fun posts from Bandit come election time about how McConnell stole the election, right?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We'll get lots of fun posts from Bandit come election time about how McConnell stole the election, right?

We know McConnell will try stealing it anyway. Don't know if he'll succeed.

[Keystone Phil]

We know McConnell will try stealing it anyway. Don't know if he'll succeed.

...

Nice knowin' ya, Mitch.

...

[DrScholl]

There are a lot of republican polls like this too (Rasmussen) that overstate the republicans chances of winning elections, this isn't a "talking point", this is stating what I think is the truth with PPP as they have a history of overstating democrats. I'm basically saying I have less trust in certain polls because they have a bias that they've proven over the years, Quinnipac in my opinion is a very trustworthy poll as they've been accurate much more often that I've examined.

Rasmussen actually does have a history of overestimating Republicans by using a weighted sample, PPP doesn't do anything like that and has accurate results.

[Morning in Atlas]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

There are a lot of republican polls like this too (Rasmussen) that overstate the republicans chances of winning elections, this isn't a "talking point", this is stating what I think is the truth with PPP as they have a history of overstating democrats. I'm basically saying I have less trust in certain polls because they have a bias that they've proven over the years, Quinnipac in my opinion is a very trustworthy poll as they've been accurate much more often that I've examined.

Of course. Famous Democrats Mitt Romney and Todd Akin were underestimated by PPP, both losing by greater margins than thought. How could I forget?

[ElectionsGuy]

Early on.... I expect this kind of thing for almost every pollster. PPP is almost always accurate when the primary is done. That being said any pollster right now has a little bit of bias and I've noticed that in early races they clearly put the spotlight on how good democrats could do and how bad republicans can do. You can see it very clearly in their posts on their website. There polls are trustworthy enough, but I'm having doubts that it won't stay this way for all of next year. It certainly could, maybe PPP will give me a new trust to them, but for now they have a slight bias in my mind. I'm NOT attacking them in any way, these is not "republican denial tactics", this is my opinion, and I'm sorry some of you can't accept it. I do not need any more arguing and bickering.

[Morning in Atlas]

Early on.... I expect this kind of thing for almost every pollster. PPP is almost always accurate when the primary is done. That being said any pollster right now has a little bit of bias and I've noticed that in early races they clearly put the spotlight on how good democrats could do and how bad republicans can do. You can see it very clearly in their posts on their website. There polls are trustworthy enough, but I'm having doubts that it won't stay this way for all of next year. It certainly could, maybe PPP will give me a new trust to them, but for now they have a slight bias in my mind. I'm NOT attacking them in any way, these is not "republican denial tactics", this is my opinion, and I'm sorry some of you can't accept it. I do not need any more arguing and bickering.

That's the problem. Phil and Supersonic don't think this poll matters much because McConnell is a great campaigner, has an incredible warchest, and has enough to nuke Bevin and Grimes. Based in fact. Hell, I'm praying she survives the onslaught. I cited that PPP actually overestimated Republicans. Once again, based in fact. You just say PPP overestimates Democrats and write it off as a junk poll although it's a very well regarded company.

It's not a matter of opinion. It's an outright misconception that's as completely based in denial as Bandit thinking it's an easy race for her.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's not a matter of opinion. It's an outright misconception that's as completely based in denial as Bandit thinking it's an easy race for her.

I didn't say it was a slam-dunk for Grimes. On the other hand, McConnell is down by 15 among people who know a lot about the candidates. That's a horrible, horrible sign for McConnell, because people are just gonna know more and more as the campaign goes on.

Plus, this campaign won't be occurring in a vacuum. The polls don't take into account the fact that Obamacare's implementation is still coming up. When people see their insurance rates dropping and find out they can't be price-gouged for preexisting conditions, it sure won't help the Republicans, who keep trying to repeal it.

[Morning in Atlas]

Well you're surely acting like it. It's a matter of withstanding the onslaught from a very smart, cunning politician who isn't afraid to go below the belt.

[pbrower2a]

The only good that I can say about Mitch McConnell is that he has yet to trivialize.... you-know-what.

He has been ineffective in increasing the GOP presence in the Senate after 2010. He has been unable to get federal largesse for Kentucky despite his power within the Senate.   He has done nothing to improve the image of the Republican Party outside of core zones of support. His first priority was to ensure that Barack Obama be a one-term President, which of course has failed.

Senate Minority Leaders have gone down to defeat (think of Tom Daschle).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

But it's true.  I remember last summer, most of the polls had Obama leading Romney by only a few points like states in Colorado and Virginia, but PPP had him leading there by almost double digits.  And besides, what makes you think that a Democratic pollster wouldn't have results that are biased toward Democrats?  They may be accurate just before an election, but their early campaign polling is awful.

[ElectionsGuy]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

But it's true.  I remember last summer, most of the polls had Obama leading Romney by only a few points like states in Colorado and Virginia, but PPP had him leading there by almost double digits.  And besides, what makes you think that a Democratic pollster wouldn't have results that are biased toward Democrats?  They may be accurate just before an election, but their early campaign polling is awful.

I also remember the Sanford/Colbert Busch race where PPP had Busch up 9-5 points weeks before the election, than a few days before the election they changed it to Sanford + 1, and even then Sanford won by 9 (!)

[Eraserhead]

She'll probably end up losing by like 5% or so. Same as Lunsford and Sloane.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

She'll probably end up losing by like 5% or so. Same as Lunsford and Sloane.

Lunsford was a very, very weak candidate. If the Democrats had a Grimes back in 2008, they would have won.

[Vosem]

Plus, this campaign won't be occurring in a vacuum. The polls don't take into account the fact that Obamacare's implementation is still coming up. When people see their insurance rates dropping and find out they can't be price-gouged for preexisting conditions, it sure won't help the Republicans, who keep trying to repeal it.

Haven't you heard the implementation is going to be delayed till 2014 (at the earliest)? Neither candidate will be able to ride Obamacare implementation to victory (though this being Kentucky, McConnell will be able to sell "a vote for me is a vote to repeal Obamacare" very successfully).

We'll get lots of fun posts from Bandit come election time about how McConnell stole the election, right?

We know McConnell will try stealing it anyway. Don't know if he'll succeed.

Because obviously McConnell winning fair and square in a state where he's already done it 5 times in a row is absurd.

[Maxwell]

This IS PPP and its very early on, PPP always overestimates democrats in polls when its not at least a half year away.

This is a bad talking point that needs to stop. I was hoping only Oldies bought into this stuff.

But it's true.  I remember last summer, most of the polls had Obama leading Romney by only a few points like states in Colorado and Virginia, but PPP had him leading there by almost double digits.  And besides, what makes you think that a Democratic pollster wouldn't have results that are biased toward Democrats?  They may be accurate just before an election, but their early campaign polling is awful.

I also remember the Sanford/Colbert Busch race where PPP had Busch up 9-5 points weeks before the election, than a few days before the election they changed it to Sanford + 1, and even then Sanford won by 9 (!)

They didn't "change it" they did a poll. The momentum was clearly on Sanford's side toward the end. Besides, it's a special election, turnout is very volatile. Changes can happen quickly in those circumstances. I feel like you are pretending not to understand nuances of special elections in order to prove yourself right.

Besides, every other pollster had those numbers about the same.

[windjammer]

Maxwell, you speak to Oldie, it's impossible to change his mind. You know, the democrats are still racist, everybody on this forum is socialist, and PPP is just a junk poll, yeah it's true we have to unskew the polls haha, we should trust Karl rove, who is republican, so he's right all the time: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk

[Maxwell]

Maxwell, you speak to Oldie, it's impossible to change his mind. You know, the democrats are still racist, everybody on this forum is socialist, and PPP is just a junk poll, yeah it's true we have to unskew the polls haha, we should trust Karl rove, who is republican, so he's right all the time: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk

But it's not Oldies. It's Waukesha County, who is someone who is new and I hope is able to be convinced of the real world.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maxwell, you speak to Oldie, it's impossible to change his mind. You know, the democrats are still racist, everybody on this forum is socialist, and PPP is just a junk poll, yeah it's true we have to unskew the polls haha, we should trust Karl rove, who is republican, so he's right all the time: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk

But it's not Oldies. It's Waukesha County, who is someone who is new and I hope is able to be convinced of the real world.

Maxwell, I'm sorry you got the wrong impression here, but when (for example) PPP is hyping up Hillary Clinton in a state like Texas, I get a sense of bias from them, even if the Sanford/Busch polls were awful all around, I think the "Busch expands lead" was very misleading and hopeful of them (when it was still 2 weeks before). This wasn't a partisan attack of the pollster as many republican pollsters are worse or just as bad. I also said that the Michigan "tied" poll was quite terrible and should go to a democratic advantage. I'm really skeptical of early polling especially when (in the case of Georgia) so many people don't know who the candidate is in one party, but are certain of a candidate in the other party (kind of like 2016 too). Anyway, polls in the summer of the year before the general election generally don't tell you what the election is like, but tells you what its starting off as, which is really unimportant when predicting the general. I'm pretty non-partisan when it comes congressional elections/election trends and was voicing my opinion on the poll and the pollster of what I've seen of them. I hope you don't come off to think of me as right winger disconnected from the real world simply because of this.