Alison Lundergan Grimes vs. Michelle Nunn

[Ogre Mage]

Now that Nunn is officially in, who is more likely to pull off an upset?

[Del Tachi]

Nunn.

Her last name gives her some extra weight down in GA, especially with the old dog Blue Dogs. 

Additionally, Tea Party turnout in the GE may be suppressed in GA with two women on the ticket.

It also helps that, of these two candidates, I prefer Nunn to Grimes.   

[Orser67]

I think it really depends on the candidate Republicans nominate in Georgia. As it is, I'll give Grimes the slight nod due to McConnell's unpopularity.

[Morning in Atlas]

Grimes. Nunn seems more liberal, and if she faces Kingston or Handel there isn't much of a chance.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

While I don't either of them is all that likely to win, I'll say Nunn because her family name carries a lot of weight in Georgia.

[illegaloperation]

Kentucky is strong GOP, but average elasticity.

Georgia is lean GOP, but inelastic.

[badgate]

This is close. Obama only lost GA by 5%, and that was in a a cycle with a very polarized entrenched electorate. Nunn's last name probably gives her 1-2%. Though we're assuming the GOP nominates someone equally as bad as Mitt Romney.

Neither of them have a particularly strong chance at winning though

[Morning in Atlas]

Kentucky is strong GOP, but average elasticity.

Georgia is lean GOP, but inelastic.

Don't forget, KY actually has a semi-functioning Democratic Party too.

This is close. Obama only lost GA by 5%, and that was in a a cycle with a very polarized entrenched electorate. Nunn's last name probably gives her 1-2%. Though we're assuming the GOP nominates someone equally as bad as Mitt Romney.

Neither of them have a particularly strong chance at winning though

Broun and Gingrey are worse than Romney. According to PVI, Georgia is only one point more Republican than Indiana is, and Donnelly took it by six points. Another Akin-esque comment could make the election a squeaker.

[illegaloperation]

Don't forget, KY actually has a semi-functioning Democratic Party too.

Broun and Gingrey are worse than Romney. According to PVI, Georgia is only one point more Republican than Indiana is, and Donnelly took it by six points. Another Akin-esque comment could make the election a squeaker.
[/quote]

Kentucky Democratic Party currently control all the statewide office, so it's functioning very well.

Politically, Kentucky is very very similar West Virginia. Maybe Alison Lundergan Grimes can run as a Joe Manchin.

As for Georgia, it may actually be closer than Indiana. PVI is calculated from the last two elections. Because Obama contented Indiana and won it in 2008 (Obama didn't contest Georgia), the state may seem closer when it really isn't.

Look at 2012. Obama only got 43.93% in Indiana while he got 45.48% in Georgia.

Georgia was the second closest state that Obama lost in 2012 (the closest being North Carolina).

The only problem is that the Georgia Democratic Party is in shambles.

[badgate]

So this week Secretary Hagel was in Louisville, and talked about how the sequester was harming preparedness, among other things.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/chuck-hagel-troops-close-breaking-point-94584.html

Grimes would do well to seize on this issue, because:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/02/mitch-mcconnell-openly-filibusters-sequestration-replacement-bill-with-majority-support.php

Mitch McConnell openly filibustered the sequester replacement bill.

[morgieb]

Grimes, at least Kentucky can vote Democratic outside of the Presidential level. Nunn is pretty untested as a candidate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Grimes was elected Secretary of State by over 20 percentage points. But then again, her opponent was an absolute, utter, complete idiot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nunn because of the runoff rules in La and Ga. But Mcconnell age will be a factor and running as a two time minority leader after failing to capture senate. But I rather have Grimes.

[pbrower2a]

So this week Secretary Hagel was in Louisville, and talked about how the sequester was harming preparedness, among other things.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/chuck-hagel-troops-close-breaking-point-94584.html

Grimes would do well to seize on this issue, because:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/02/mitch-mcconnell-openly-filibusters-sequestration-replacement-bill-with-majority-support.php

Mitch McConnell openly filibustered the sequester replacement bill.

Kentucky has a large military presence; McConnell can be hit hard from the Right on that issue.

[Ogre Mage]

Factors in Grimes favor:

--She has political experience in statewide office.
--Kentucky Democrats have robust party infrastructure at the state level.
--McConnell is despised by National Democrats.


Factors against Grimes:

--Her opponent is a powerful incumbent with vast political resources.
--The state's demographics do not play to the National Democratic Party's strong points.
--The president's energy/climate change policies are an albatross in this coal-based state.


Factors in Nunn's favor:

--She is running for an open seat and some potential Republican opponents appear to be poor general election candidates.
--High name recognition due to her father.
--Georgia's large African-American population, diversifying electorate and the presence of a major metropolis (Atlanta) gives her a clear base.


Factors against Nunn:

--She has no experience in elected office so her ability to campaign is a big question mark.
--Georgia State Democratic Party is in absolute shambles.