UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True enough, though you should also worry when a particularly firm is a bit too bouncy...

[Helsinkian]

At the moment May2015 is indicating that, with Labour and the Tories both getting 33.3 percent of the votes, the Tories would get 17 seats more (263 to Labour, 280 to Tories). It has previously been said that the constituency boundaries favour Labour, but I guess that doesn't matter so much in the scenario where the SNP wipes Labour out from Scotland, which is what May2015 is currently predicting.

[Lurker]

At the moment May2015 is indicating that, with Labour and the Tories both getting 33.3 percent of the votes, the Tories would get 17 seats more (263 to Labour, 280 to Tories). It has previously been said that the constituency boundaries favour Labour, but I guess that doesn't matter so much in the scenario where the SNP wipes Labour out from Scotland, which is what May2015 is currently predicting.

Their forecasting still looks strange in light of earlier results - particularly in comparison with 2005 (when the constituency boundaries in England massively favored Labour, giving them 92 more English seats than the Tories, despite getting fewer votes).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tonight's YouGov tells the usual picture, but a detail to highlight: LibDems on 5%

[Torie]

Regarding Wales, I remember Cameron at PM questioning time, noting that the Wales had a lot of underpopulated constituencies (almost all Labor strongholds that have seen a population drain as the coal mines shut down), and they needed to be culled for "fairness" sake. Were they, or did the Lib Dems just say no, or did Cameron decide to back off, or what?

[Sol]

Regarding Wales, I remember Cameron at PM questioning time, noting that the Wales had a lot of underpopulated constituencies (almost all Labor strongholds that have seen a population drain as the coal mines shut down), and they needed to be culled for "fairness" sake. Were they, or did the Lib Dems just say no, or did Cameron decide to back off, or what?

In any case, the absurdly underpopulated constituencies of Britain need to be ameliorated at least to some degree--perhaps the only thing I'd ever agree with Cameron on, though 5% deviation is still insanely high.

[Helsinkian]

One thing I noticed: the Isle of Wight has the largest population among the constituencies, and it's reliably Conservative. If it were split into two constituencies, the Tories would have two MPs from there instead of one. But apparently the islanders don't want to split it.

[Gary J]

Helsinkian, the parliamentary representation of the Isle of Wight has long been a problem. The electorate for the Isle is an awkward number, too big for one average size constituency and too small for two. In view of the strong preference of the islanders not to have part of the island attached to a bit of southern Hampshire across the Solent, the Boundary Commission was left with an awkward decision in each boundary review.

Under former laws, about Parliamentary boundary changes, the decision has been to have one oversized constituency. Under the present legislation, when the boundaries are next redrawn, the Isle of Wight will be divided into two undersized seats (as it is treated as a special case and is not subject to the normal rules).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Reliably conservative may be the wrong word for it. They are flexible enough to have a fully Indy council, and in happier times for the Liberal Democrats they could put up a decent fight.

[Phony Moderate]

The Lib Dems shouldn't worry. Their incumbents are all more popular than Jesus and hence (those who are standing) will all be re-elected even if the party polls 0.4% nationally.

[afleitch]

Ashcroft is having his circus again. Bad news for Labour in his Scottish constituency polls. Even Murphy is only leading by 1%

[YL]

12 polls.  I presume these are based on the "constituency" question.

Scotland - look away unionists

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP 14 ahead (of Con; LDs are 5 further back)
Ross, Skye & Lochaber: SNP 5 ahead (Kennedy's seat)
Dumfriesshire et al: SNP/Con tie
Dumfries & Galloway: SNP 4 ahead (of Con; Lab are 2 further back)
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock: SNP 11 ahead
Edinburgh SW: SNP 13 ahead (!)
East Renfrewshire: Lab 1 ahead
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: SNP 6 ahead

Wales

Vale of Glamorgan: Con 6 ahead of Lab

England

Colne Valley: Con 1 ahead of Lab
High Peak: Lab 1 ahead of Con
Norwich North: Lab 1 ahead of Con

[Clyde1998]

12 polls.  I presume these are based on the "constituency" question.

Scotland - look away unionists

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP 14 ahead (of Lib Dem?)
Ross, Skye & Lochaber: SNP 5 ahead (Kennedy's seat)
Dumfriesshire et al: SNP/Con tie
Dumfries & Galloway: SNP 3 ahead
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock: SNP 11 ahead
Edinburgh SW: SNP 13 ahead (!)
East Renfrewshire: Lab 1 ahead
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: SNP 6 ahead

Wales

Vale of Glamorgan: Con 6 ahead of Lab

England

Colne Valley: Con 1 ahead of Lab
High Peak: Lab 1 ahead of Con
Norwich North: Lab 1 ahead of Con

For Scotland (using Headline Figures):
Aberdeenshire West: SNP 39%, Con 25%, Lib 20%, Lab 10%, Ukip 3%, Grn 2%
Ayr, Carrick, Cumnock: SNP 42%, Lab 31%, Con 21%, Ukip 3%, Lib 2%, Grn <1%
Dumfries, Clydesdale: SNP 34%, Con 34%, Lab 18%, Lib 7%, Ukip 4%, Grn 2%
Dumfries & Galloway: SNP 34%, Con 30%, Lab 28%, Ukip 4%, Lib 2%, Grn 2%
East Renfrewshire: Lab 34%, SNP 33%, Con 26%, Grn 3%, Lib 2%, Ukip 1%
Edinburgh South West: SNP 40%, Lab 27%, Con 19%, Grn 7%, Lib 4%, Ukip 2%
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: SNP 45%, Lab 39%, Con 7%, Lib 3%, Ukip 3%, Grn 3%
Ross, Skye, Lochaber: SNP 40%, Lib 35%, Lab 9%, Con 8%, Grn 5%, Ukip 3%

The only seat where Labour are ahead in is Jim Murphy's seat - who is Scottish Labour leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Insert my usual post here (stuck record etc).

[Clyde1998]

Based on the Scottish constituency polls so far:



SNP - Yellow
LAB - Red
Tie - Cyan

[YL]

If these results are accurate, where else might the Unionist parties be holding on?

Away from Scotland, here's another article about Sheffield Hallam.  I walked past that house no. 234 in the photo earlier today; it's in a very studenty area.

[Clyde1998]

If these results are accurate, where else might the Unionist parties be holding on?

Away from Scotland, here's another article about Sheffield Hallam.  I walked past that house no. 234 in the photo earlier today; it's in a very studenty area.

Orkney & Shetland and Berwickshire most likely. Not many Unionist areas left by the looks of things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unionist is hardly a neutral term.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway I note that Goodwinandford have managed to reach another low: spinning UKIP's embarrassing immigration U-turn as irrelevant because UKIP are special ickle snowflakes. They are an absolute disgrace.

[Phony Moderate]

So we could be looking at quite a few 'Portillo moments'. The Alexanders, Murphy, Kennedy, Clegg, Hughes...

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31742155

I can actually envision Clegg getting a bounce on the basis that he'll come across as the most normal. He'll be facing an uber-posh elitist, a wide-eyed weirdo, a raving xenophobic windbag and an inept environMENTAList. And two secessionists.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31742155

I can actually envision Clegg getting a bounce on the basis that he'll come across as the most normal. He'll be facing an uber-posh elitist, a wide-eyed weirdo, a raving xenophobic windbag and an inept environMENTAList. And two secessionists.

Clegg-mania 2.0?

[joevsimp]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31742155

I can actually envision Clegg getting a bounce on the basis that he'll come across as the most normal. He'll be facing an uber-posh elitist, a wide-eyed weirdo, a raving xenophobic windbag and an inept environMENTAList. And two secessionists.

that's their main strategy isn't it? I was vaguely impressed by the ppb they had out a few weeks ago, but their pitch of "adding heart to a tory government and spine to a labour one" just makes them look like unprincipled careerist opportunists .

[afleitch]

All of Ashcroft's Scottish polls make sense in the context of SNP support in 2011 (projected onto Westminster seats) East Renfrewshire is a surprise because I genuinely thought Murphy would be on safer ground there. Before people question whether those polled know who their MP is, it's safe to say a seat like East Ren knows who it's MP is (for similar reasons Kirkcaldy showed a huge swing to the SNP because they know who their MP is and that he's not standing)

Anyway, here's how East Renfrewshire would have voted in 2011 (calculating the swing in Barrhead/Neilston and adding it back in to the seat)

LAB 17817
CON 11819
SNP 11215
LIB 1097

So that's approx; Lab 43, Con 28, SNP 27, Lib 3.

On that basis, Ashcroft poll shows the Tory vote down just 2, the Lib Dems down 1 with Labour down 9 and the SNP up 6.

[Clyde1998]

Unionist is hardly a neutral term.

Unionists being the ones who opposed Scottish independence.
Nationalists being the ones who supported independence.