UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[YL]

I thought I'd go through the Lib Dem defences seat by seat.  Predictions are obviously to be taken with a pinch of salt.  Here's the first instalment, others to follow if and when I get round to them.

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - This is a one time Tory seat where the Lib Dems won a by-election (with a different name and slightly different boundaries) in 1991, only to lose it in 1992, and took the seat in 1997.  In principle this should be a three way battle between the Lib Dems, the Tories and the SNP, and in the current atmosphere you'd have to favour the SNP.  An Ashcroft poll showed the SNP well ahead and the Lib Dems third.  The Lib Dems released an internal poll showing them ahead to a local newspaper, but that has to be taken with a pinch of salt.  Likely SNP gain.

Argyll & Bute - This has been Lib Dem since 1987.  In 2010 it was something of a four way marginal, with the Lib Dems winning on only 32% and the SNP only 13% behind in fourth.  Again, in the current atmosphere, I'd expect the SNP to go from fourth to first here.  Likely SNP gain.

Bath - This has been Lib Dem since Chris Patten was defeated in 1992, but has only had one Lib Dem MP, Don Foster, who is standing down.  The current boundaries are tightly drawn around the city, which makes them less favourable for the Tories than pre-2010, and Foster has a big majority.  Given the boundaries, I expect the Lib Dems to hold, but new Lib Dem candidates have not always found it easy.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Bermondsey & Old Southwark - Simon Hughes's seat, which he's held ever since the infamous 1983 by-election.  This is basically about whether Hughes's personal vote, with perhaps a bit of help from Tory tactical voting, can be enough to hold off Labour.  For what it's worth, Ashcroft showed him just ahead on the "thinking about your constituency" question, but well behind on the normal one.  Local election results were promising for Labour.  I think they might just nick it.  Lean Lab gain.

Berwick upon Tweed - Alan Beith has been MP here since he won it for the old Liberal Party in a 1973 by-election, and is standing down.  It contains a lot more of Northumberland than just the town of Berwick.  His majority wasn't that big in 2010 and I'm sceptical that a new candidate can hold on to this.  Lean Con gain.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - Another Scottish seat which is a three way battle between the Lib Dems, Tories and the SNP.  This wasn't a great area for "Yes" in the referendum, but given that it's a three way battle the SNP won't need to get that high a percentage to win.  I'm going to guess that they do.  Lean SNP gain.

Birmingham Yardley - A long term Lib Dem stronghold at local level which then went Lib Dem nationally with John Hemming in 2005.  This is not demographically typical of Lib Dem urban seats, and might not swing like the others.  It could go either way, but I'm going to guess that Hemming holds on.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Bradford East - This was a 2010 Lib Dem gain.  Their MP, David Ward, has been somewhat controversial and must have been close to being kicked out of the party over his views on the Middle East.  Labour really ought to take this back, although their recent incompetence in the city gives some room for doubt.  Likely Lab gain.

Brecon & Radnorshire - The Lib Dems took this in a 1985 by-election, lost it in 1992 to the Tories and took it back in 1997.  The current MP, Roger Williams, took over in 2001.  I was in this seat not long ago and someone told me it might well go UKIP, but I'd expect it to be a battle between the Lib Dems and the Tories.  Ashcroft showed the Lib Dems just ahead on the constituency question.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Brent Central - Sarah Teather's seat, held in this form since 2010, the parts which were in Brent East since a 2003 Iraq-affected by-election.  She's standing down, it's a natural Labour area, and the Lib Dems now have further problems (see above).  Near certain Lab gain.

Bristol West - It should be pointed out that this is not very like the seat which was Tory for years until Labour nicked it in 1997, and then went Lib Dem in 2005: in the 2010 boundary changes it lost some posh suburbs and gained some inner city areas east of Bristol city centre.  (IMO it should have been renamed.)  The Tories are now out of contention, and it seems like the sort of area which is likely to see a big swing away from the Lib Dems.  A complication here comes from the Greens, who have done well in local elections and seem to think they can challenge for the seat.  (At one point electionforecast.co.uk agreed with them, but no longer; I have no idea what's been driving its forecasts here, as there have been no constituency polls.)  If they pick up former Lib Dem voters who would otherwise have voted Labour they might save Stephen Williams here.  Various things could happen, but I'm guessing that Labour just do it.  Lean Lab gain.

Burnley - This was a 2010 Lib Dem gain, I think basically because the local Labour party was a mess.  It doesn't come across as a natural Lib Dem area.  Likely Lab gain.

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - The Lib Dem tenure here goes back to Robert Maclennan's defection from Labour to the SNP.  The current MP, John Thurso, is a hereditary peer, took over in 2001, and has a decent majority, but the Highland Lib Dems did terribly in the 2011 Scottish election, and I doubt he can withstand the SNP tide.  Likely SNP gain.

Cambridge - This was a 2005 gain from Labour.  It might well go back, but the Lib Dems best chance of holding on is probably that their current MP, Julian Huppert, is quite popular in certain quarters, which are well represented in Cambridge, for being one of the few MPs who seems to understand science.  I think he might be able to hold on based on that, but not comfortably.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Cardiff Central - Another 2005 gain from Labour in an urban, student heavy seat.  I think this one ought to go back to Labour, and there was an Ashcroft poll which pointed that way too, though the closeness of Labour's gain in the 2011 Assembly election gives room for doubt.  Likely Lab gain.

Carshalton & Wallington - This is one of those south-west London seats which the Lib Dems took from the Tories in 1997.  I previously looked at the Ashcroft poll here and the enormous swing to the Lib Dems which Ashcroft's second question gave, which I'm a bit doubtful about.  I'd make them narrow favourites, though.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Ceredigion - A traditional Liberal stronghold which Plaid took in 1992, but the Lib Dems took back in 2005.  The current MP, Mark Williams, had a big swing towards him in 2010, which makes him look fairly safe on paper.  There's a bit of a hippie element mixed in here, and there are two universities, though both are on the small side.  I expect Plaid to come back a bit, but doubt it'll be enough to win.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Cheadle - A south Greater Manchester suburban seat won very narrowly from the Tories in 2001 and then held in a by-election in 2005 after the first Lib Dem MP, Patsy Calton, died.  The Lib Dem majorities have never been big, and in spite of Ashcroft showing them narrowly holding on (again, only on the second question) I think the Tories might nick this back.  Lean Con gain.

Cheltenham - Like Bath, a spa town seat taken from the Tories in 1992, but Cheltenham is less of a university town than Bath and this is not as safe, with the Lib Dem majorities mostly being fairly small.  The Tories are certainly the only threat.  The Lib Dems might hold on, they might not.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

[Phony Moderate]

Miliband has ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

[You kip if you want to...]

Miliband has ruled out a coalition with the SNP.

Was never gonna happen. As I said somewhere else here, confidence and supply and Miliband can dare them to vote him out and give Cameron/new Tory leader a chance to scrape together a government.

Also puts pressure on the Tories here to say they'd never let UKIP into the gov. The Liberals must be rubbing their hands together.

[Phony Moderate]

Populus: Lab 34, Tories 34, UKIP 15, Lib Dems 8, Greens 5 (previous was a 3 point Labour lead)
ICM: Tories 36, Lab 35, UKIP 9, Lib Dems 8, Greens 4 (previous was a 4 point Tory lead)

Lib Dems at 20-year low with the Gold Standard, and they probably cannot expect the usual campaign increase since a. They are in government this time, and b. We are in de facto campaign mode already (certainly more so than at this point in 2010).

[Phony Moderate]

Ashcroft has the Tories ahead at 31-29 (yeah...both are clearly too low) and YouGov has Labour ahead by 35-33.

[Phony Moderate]

Cameron has agreed to a single seven-way debate in early April.

[You kip if you want to...]

Cameron has agreed to a single seven-way debate in early April.

Wait, so what's actually on the cards? Last time I checked, the two 7-way debates were on and the broadcasters were gonna do the Ed-Dave one, but empty seat the PM.

[YL]

Ashcroft has released some more constituency polls (hi Al).  All of these are in Con/Lab marginals which he'd had polled before.  Margins, together with the month(s) and margin(s) of the previous poll(s), below.

City of Chester: Lab +11 (Oct 2014: Lab +1)
Croydon Central: Lab +4 (Oct 2014: Lab +6)
Halesowen & Rowley Regis: Lab +2 (Oct 2014: Lab +1)
Nuneaton: Lab +5 (Oct 2014: Lab +3)
Southampton Itchen: Lab +8 (May 2014: Lab +8; Aug 2014: tied)
South Swindon: Tied (Dec 2014: tied)
Wirral West: Lab +5 (Oct 2014: Lab +1)
Worcester: Con +6 (Oct 2014: Lab +2)

As well as any general points about the reliability of Ashcroft's constituency polling, it's worth pointing out that these polls are likely to have similar volatility to Ashcroft's national polls, so most of these movements aren't very significant.

[YL]

A second batch of Lib Dem seat guesses:

Chippenham - A new seat in 2010, which the Lib Dems won.  Ashcroft has polled it twice, both times finding a reasonably comfortable Tory gain.  While this may not be reliable, I'd have to make them favourites in spite of the tendency of first time Lib Dem incumbents to do well.  Lean Con gain.

Colchester - Bob Russell gained this for the Lib Dems from the Tories in 1997, and has held it ever since.  He had a decent majority in 2010, and Ashcroft has shown him holding on reasonably comfortably.  He looks like he's favourite.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

North Cornwall - An old Liberal stronghold, this went Tory in 1979 but Paul Tyler won it back for the Lib Dems in 1992 and passed it on to Dan Rogerson in 2005.  Rogerson has never had a big majority so it looks a bit precarious.  I'd guess that the Liberal history indicates enough strength to just hold on.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

North Devon - Famously once Jeremy Thorpe's seat and lost to the Tories just before his trial in 1979, Nick Harvey (who is, unusually for a Lib Dem, a bit of a Eurosceptic) won it back for the Lib Dems in 1992 and has held it ever since.  As with North Cornwall, it doesn't look that safe but I'm going to guess they can just hold on.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Mid Dorset & North Poole - Annette Brooke has held this seat with its ugly name since 2001, but her majority in 2010 was tiny and she's standing down.  This looks as likely a Tory gain as any Lib Dem held seat anywhere.  Likely Con gain.

East Dunbartonshire - A middle class Greater Glasgow suburban constituency, this was created in its current form in 2005 and has been held since by Jo Swinson for the Lib Dems.  She might just hold on in a three way tie with Labour and the SNP, but to be honest I think she's third favourite.  Given the current situation in Scotland, I'd favour the Nats in spite of the area's high No vote, especially as the three way battle means they don't need that high a share to win.  Lean SNP gain.

Eastbourne - A Sussex coastal resort with a reputation as a retirement destination.  The constituency went Lib Dem in a 1990 by-election just before the downfall of Th*tch*r; the Tories won it back in 1992 but it stayed marginal and the Lib Dems won it again in 2010.  Ashcroft was very promising for the Lib Dems here, and Lib Dem first time incumbents do often do well against the Tories.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Eastleigh - Lib Dem since a 1994 by-election, and now with three consecutive Lib Dem MPs, I tend to think that if the Lib Dems could hold this in a mid-term by-election in this parliament after their incumbent got sent to jail, they're not likely to lose it now.  They also do very well in other elections in the area.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Edinburgh West - I have similar feelings about this to East Dunbartonshire, except that the share needed to win could be even lower.  It's been Lib Dem for longer; they gained it from the Tories in 1997.  Lean SNP gain.

North East Fife - Ming Campbell has been MP here, the more genteel end of Fife around St. Andrew's, since taking it from the Tories in 1987.  He's standing down, and in spite of the number of English students around (OK, there's more to the seat than St. Andrew's) I doubt the Lib Dems can resist the SNP.  Likely SNP gain.

Gordon - A long standing Lib Dem seat, held by Malcolm Bruce with various boundaries since 1983.  However, Bruce is standing down, and the SNP selected Alex Salmond.  This is over.  Near certain SNP gain.

Hazel Grove - Like Cheadle, this is a south Greater Manchester suburban constituency.  It has more of a Liberal tradition, though, voting for them in February 1974, and having been Lib Dem since 1997.  Andrew Stunell is standing down, which might give the Tories hope in spite of his comfortable majority.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Hornsey & Wood Green - A fairly middle class North London seat which was once Tory, Labour from 1992 to 2005 and Lib Dem since.  The Lib Dems recently released an internal poll with some dodgy methodology which still showed them behind, which says it all.  Likely Lab gain.

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - The eastern part of the Highland region (though there are more easterly parts of the Highlands as generally understood) with most of the population in the city of Inverness.  This seat has history for close election results; its main predecessor in 1992 managed to have the Lib Dems first on 26% and the Tories in fourth on 22.6%.  Danny Alexander will be doing better than I expect if it's remotely close in 2015, though.  Near certain SNP gain.

Kingston & Surbiton - One of those south-west London seats where the Lib Dems have been strong for a bit, Ed Davey won this very narrowly in 1997 and then by a country mile in 2001.  His majority has come down a bit since then, but I think he's still favourite.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Leeds North West - This stretches out from fairly central studenty Headingley to the separate town of Otley.  It was Tory until 1997, then Labour came from third to take it, then it went Lib Dem in 2005.  Greg Mulholland has quite a bit majority, and seems to be reasonably popular, but it does seem to fit the bill for a big swing to Labour.  I'd guess Mulholland just holds on.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Lewes - A Sussex seat based around the town with a penchant for burning effigies of Popes and other public figures on the Fifth of November.  Norman Baker has held it for the Lib Dems since 1997.  He is probably idiosyncratic enough to be able to hold on, and has a reasonable majority.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Manchester Withington - One of the urban seats the Lib Dems won from Labour in 2005.  They've never had a big majority, and local election results in Manchester tell a persistent tale of woe for the Lib Dems.  Near certain Lab gain.

North Norfolk - This was once a Labour seat, which really just shows how much things have changed in rural East Anglia.  Norman Lamb won it very narrowly for the Lib Dems in 2001, but increased his majority substantially in 2005 and further in 2010, and now looks quite comfortable by Lib Dem standards.  Likely Lib Dem hold. 

[YL]

Unionist pact in Northern Ireland: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-31930496

UUP stand down for DUP in Belfast East and Belfast North.
DUP stand down for UUP in Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Newry & Armagh

The DUP seem to have the better of this, reflecting the current state of the parties I suppose. Newry & Armagh is surely hopeless for Unionism, and a unity candidate couldn't quite win FST last time.

[YL]

More polls:

TNS: Con 33, Lab 32, UKIP 17, LD 7, Green 4, "Other" (inc. SNP) 7
YouGov: Lab 36, Con 34, UKIP 12, LD 7, Green 6, SNP/Plaid 5

[Phony Moderate]

Budget Day. Will it alter public opinion significantly? Probably, as any move in any direction can be described as 'significant' in an election like this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Budget bounces and budget slumps both tend to be pretty transient.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The DUP and UUP have agreed that backwards is forwards and that sectarian headcounting is the future. DUP to stand down in Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Newry & Armagh, UUP to stand down in East Belfast and North Belfast. Sinn Fein are also keen on the idea and have made requests to the SDLP, who are not.

[Hifly]

At least there will be another chance to win back F&ST from Nationalist control.

It will also be interesting to see what damage Sinn Fein does to McDonnell's majority in Belfast South; DUP have an outside chance of gaining it.

[You kip if you want to...]

Will NI be another no change election all right like last time?

[TJ in Oregon]

Will NI be another no change election all right like last time?

The DUP seems likely to pick up East Belfast. Beyond that I have no idea.

There are also a handful of other seats with a close divide between Nationalists and Unionists that could turn out either way.

[Hifly]

Will NI be another no change election all right like last time?

No

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um... it was hardly a no-change election in 2010 given that Peter Robinson lost his seat.

[YL]

Well, of course it wasn't actually a no change election last time, because of Alliance defeating Peter Robinson in East Belfast.

This time, I expect the DUP to take East Belfast back, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are no other changes.  The UUP must have a chance of beating Sinn Féin in FST, given the pact, but you'd probably have to make SF slight favourites given that a unity Unionist candidate fell just short last time.  Elsewhere, I doubt the DUP can get enough votes from South Belfast's demographic to beat McDonnell, unless SF really eat into his vote, and I suppose the UUP might have some chance of getting a seat back from the DUP; South Antrim is probably the most likely.

[Хahar 🤔]

Belfast East is almost certainly a lost cause, but it seems unlikely that anything else changes this year. Gerry Kelly picking up Belfast North for Sinn Féin seems like a matter of "when" rather than "if".

[YL]

Final batch of Lib Dem guesses:

Norwich South - An urban, studenty Lib Dem gain from Labour in 2010, with a large Green presence in local elections.  I suspect the Lib Dems are headed for third here.  Near certain Lab gain.

Orkney & Shetland - This has been with the Lib Dems and, before them, the Liberals, since 1950.  They even did well here in their 2011 Scottish Parliament and 2014 Euro disasters, and it's a strong No area so the SNP seem unlikely to take it.  Near certain Lib Dem hold.

Portsmouth South - The Lib Dem MP here, Mike Hancock, got into all sorts of trouble and is now sitting as an independent and has been effectively deselected.  There's still Lib Dem strength locally, but it's hard to see them holding.  UKIP are sniffing around, which could complicate things.  Likely Con gain.

Redcar - A spectactular Lib Dem gain from Labour in 2010 on an enormous swing.  Their MP, Ian Swales, is standing down.  In spite of some reports of troubles in the local Labour party, I suspect that the 2015 result will be such that if this site still exists in twenty years time people will be wondering if the 2010 result was a misprint.  Near certain Lab gain.

Ross, Skye & Lochaber - Might Charles Kennedy lose to the SNP?  Until recently I'd have said no, but with the SNP surge there's now at least room for doubt.  Kennedy isn't as high profile he was, and reports of his recent Question Time appearance won't be helpful.  For now, I'm going with him to just hold on, but I'm not at all convinced.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

St Austell & Newquay - A Cornish seat, parts of which have been represented by Liberals and Lib Dems since David Penhaligon won Truro in October 1974.  Given the narrow margin in 2010 over the Tories, I think the Tories have to be favourites here, though Cornwall isn't always easy to predict and may have a heavy UKIP influence.  Lean Con gain.

St Ive's - As well as St Ive's, this includes the rest of west Cornwall, including Penzance and the Isle of Scilly.  Andrew George, who is on the left of the party and has a reputation for Cornish nationalist tendencies, has been Lib Dem MP here since 1997.  His majority fell sharply in 2010.  I'm going to go for him to hold on based on a personal vote.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Sheffield Hallam - Three constituency polls have led to speculation that Nick Clegg is in danger of losing his seat to Labour, in spite of his huge 2010 majority, the demographics of the seat and the fact that Labour have never won it.  I don't find the vote shares (low 30s) that the polls give Labour implausible, but where I do find the polling figures odd is that they suggest that Clegg is losing enough votes elsewhere that Labour could win with 30%.  Clegg has a fight on his hands, but I think he's still favourite to hold on at this point.  (NB I live here and will be voting Labour.)  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Solihull - A surprise Lib Dem gain from the Tories in 2005, and a narrow regain in 2010 after boundary changes made it notionally Tory again.  I think the Lib Dems will struggle to hold on here.  Likely Con gain.

Somerton & Frome - This has been won by David Heath for four elections in a row with consistently tiny majorities.  He's now standing down and being replaced by David Rendel, former Lib Dem MP for Newbury.  The small majorities and the retirement suggest the Lib Dems are going to struggle.  Likely Con gain.

Southport - A Lancashire coastal town annexed against the protests of many of its residents to Merseyside in 1974, the constituency has been a Lib Dem/Con marginal for some time, Liberal in 1987, Tory in 1992, and Lib Dem since 1997.  The Tories are in a mess in Sefton borough, and it's quite difficult to see them winning.  I note Andrew Teale's suggestion that UKIP might come through the middle, and can see that the demographics might be good for them by north-west England standards, but I think the Lib Dems must be favourites.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Sutton & Cheam - Another south-west London seat won in 1997.  The Tories were close enough behind in 2010 that you'd probably expect them to gain, so the question is how seriously to take the Ashcroft poll showing Paul Burstow 18 points ahead of them (on the constituency question; he was behind on the standard one).  I wouldn't take it that seriously, but it might be just enough to make me make him favourite.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Taunton Deane - The Lib Dems won this in 1997, lost it back to the Tories in 2001, and gained it again in 2005, with the new MP being the ridiculously right-wing Jeremy Browne.  He's retiring, and even if he'd stayed on I suspect the seat might well have changed hands again.  Likely Con gain.

Thornbury & Yate - This is just north of Bristol, including the northern edge of Bristol's suburban sprawl (though most of that is in Filton & Sadly Broke).  Steve Webb has been MP for this area since 1997, and looks reasonably comfortable on the 2010 figures.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Torbay - This was Tory until Adrian Sanders won it by 12 votes in 1997, and they keep thinking they're going to get it back and keep not doing so.  They might have a chance this time, but I'm going to guess that Sanders holds on again.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Twickenham - Vince Cable has been MP here since he won it from the Tories in 1997.  He isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I think he's retained more popularity than most Lib Dems and I don't think he's likely to lose.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Wells - A 2010 Lib Dem gain from the Tories after years of trying and coming close.  There have been three constituency polls here which have all shown the Tories ahead.  I doubt it'll be that easy for them, but just about make them favourites.  Lean Con gain.

Westmorland & Lonsdale - This has only been Lib Dem since 2005, but Tim Farron seems amazingly popular in the area and they also do well in other elections, even carrying South Lakeland district in their Euro disaster.  Near certain Lib Dem hold.

Yeovil - Paddy Ashdown's seat, which he won in 1983, has been held by the very right wing David Laws since 2001.  He had a big majority in 2010 and should be favoured to hold on, but I do have some suspicions that his expenses problems which forced him out of the Cabinet might be used against him.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

[YL]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But logically thought through and well argued, and sometimes that's the main thing.

[ChrisDR68]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

So they could poll around the same level that they did in the 1970 general election according to what most opinion polls are showing at the moment (8.5%) but instead of winning just the 6 seats they won in that election they could end up with the 28 you've worked out here.

Extraordinary