British Columbia provincial election 2013

[You kip if you want to...]

This is bizarre.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another reason for wrong polls: low voter turnout. Perhaps Disaffected voters chose to stay home rather than vote NDP?

Maybe reason this news headline "Voters with Indian Status cards turned away from polling station"

note: cant post the link here to over 20 posts. but you can go google from above title.

That would not have made much difference, I don't think. The NDP won most riding with large aboriginal numbers anyways.

[BigSkyBob]

I have some ideas as to what went wrong:

*"Silent majority" - a large percentage of centre-right people who don't care about politics that much, don't follow it to a high degree, don't do polls, but get out to vote. I think there is a higher percentage of people like this in BC and Alberta. From my times as an interviewer at EKOS, I can tell you that BC and Alberta are the most hostile provinces to pollsters.

*Undecideds went Liberal - seems to me that just like in Alberta, there were lots of undecideds, and they broke heavily to the devil they knew- the Liberals. One thing that pollsters could have done is look at how the undecideds were leaning and extrapolate for all undecideds. It's risky business, but I think it would have been more accurate in this case.

*Lying respondents - with the Liberals so unpopular and using dirty campaign tactics (well, negative ads), respondents were less likely to admit voting Liberal. Perhaps respondents in BC and Alberta are more likely to lie anyways due to just being hostile/distrustful of pollsters. That might account for why the lied in online surveys and IVR surveys.

Um, the NDP governed B.C. in recent times with less than popular results.

[MaxQue]

Finally, Clark didn't even came close. She lost by 785 votes.
Analysts on Frecnh TV takled of where she could ran if she lost. They all agreed it must be a safe seat in Vancouver area (most likely suburbs). They were mostly targeting North Vancouver and West Vancouver (the cities, not the parts of Vancouver) (Ralph Sultan? He will turn 80 in June, but it would sent a bad message to old people and he is an intellectual heavyweight with a couple of doctorate, teacher in Harvard and a leadership position at Royal Bank).

[You kip if you want to...]

Maybe it's just me, but I think politicians who think they're above negative campaigning are a bit holier-than-thou.

[MaxQue]

Made on Smid black map.

Edit: If I stretch your screen, please do indicate me how to fix it.

[DINGO Joe]

All our politicians should also discard the quaint notion that one can remain entirely positive, or more accurately that one can let attacks go unanswered. All jugular all the time, period.

Maybe. But there is a certain nobility to being entirely positive. Maybe it's better to be positive and lose then to be negative and win.

How noble, you're fired.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On a first glance of sorts, looks like a very good NDP performance in Vancouver, but lousy results in the places where elections are actually won.

[Hatman 🍁]

On a first glance of sorts, looks like a very good NDP performance in Vancouver, but lousy results in the places where elections are actually won.

"Very good" ? I would've gone with "Good". Very good would have meant winning Vancouver-Fraserview. They did pick up 2 seats, which is pretty good. I think Vancouver has become a lot more left wing recently. But South Asians must have been turned off the NDP for some reason (odd considering Clark's ethnic minority gaffe), as we see with the results from Burnaby. Maybe that's why they lost Fraserview?

[MaxQue]

On a first glance of sorts, looks like a very good NDP performance in Vancouver, but lousy results in the places where elections are actually won.

NDP gained:
Vancouver-Point Grey
Vancouver-Fairview
Burnaby-Lougheed
Saanich North and the Islands

Liberal gained:
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Port Moody-Coquitlam
Delta North
Surrey-Fleetwood
Chilliwack-Hope
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Cariboo North
Fraser-Nicola

Green gained:
Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Indeed, Al is right. NDP gained in Vancouver, lost elsewhere.

[MaxQue]

Best NDP result: 65.78% for Jenny Kwan (which led the James putsch) in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.
Best Liberal result: 67.46% for Ralph Sultan (79 year old, economist and scholar) in West Vancouver-Capilano.

[DC Al Fine]

Finally, Clark didn't even came close. She lost by 785 votes.
Analysts on Frecnh TV takled of where she could ran if she lost. They all agreed it must be a safe seat in Vancouver area (most likely suburbs). They were mostly targeting North Vancouver and West Vancouver (the cities, not the parts of Vancouver) (Ralph Sultan? He will turn 80 in June, but it would sent a bad message to old people and he is an intellectual heavyweight with a couple of doctorate, teacher in Harvard and a leadership position at Royal Bank).

How about one of the Richmond seats? Reasonably close, safe, and I'm sure someone would be willing to be made a judge or something.

[MaxQue]

Finally, Clark didn't even came close. She lost by 785 votes.
Analysts on Frecnh TV takled of where she could ran if she lost. They all agreed it must be a safe seat in Vancouver area (most likely suburbs). They were mostly targeting North Vancouver and West Vancouver (the cities, not the parts of Vancouver) (Ralph Sultan? He will turn 80 in June, but it would sent a bad message to old people and he is an intellectual heavyweight with a couple of doctorate, teacher in Harvard and a leadership position at Royal Bank).

How about one of the Richmond seats? Reasonably close, safe, and I'm sure someone would be willing to be made a judge or something.

Why not?
Richmond Centre: No, Teresa Wat just was elected. You don't make freshmen resign, usually.
Richmond-Stevenson: Yap was dumped of the Cabinet because of the ethnic outreach scandal, not sure he would leave his place that easily.
Richmond East: Deputy Speaker and, as Speaker retired, I suppose she is the most likely candidate to be Speaker. Not resigning either.

[Hatman 🍁]

On a first glance of sorts, looks like a very good NDP performance in Vancouver, but lousy results in the places where elections are actually won.

NDP gained:
Vancouver-Point Grey
Vancouver-Fairview
Burnaby-Lougheed
Saanich North and the Islands

Liberal gained:
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Port Moody-Coquitlam
Delta North
Surrey-Fleetwood
Chilliwack-Hope
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Cariboo North
Fraser-Nicola

Green gained:
Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Indeed, Al is right. NDP gained in Vancouver, lost elsewhere.

Don't forget, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam are only pick ups from by-elections. Really, from the last election it's +6 for the Libs and -4 for the NDP.

[MaxQue]

On a first glance of sorts, looks like a very good NDP performance in Vancouver, but lousy results in the places where elections are actually won.

NDP gained:
Vancouver-Point Grey
Vancouver-Fairview
Burnaby-Lougheed
Saanich North and the Islands

Liberal gained:
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Port Moody-Coquitlam
Delta North
Surrey-Fleetwood
Chilliwack-Hope
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Cariboo North
Fraser-Nicola

Green gained:
Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Indeed, Al is right. NDP gained in Vancouver, lost elsewhere.

Don't forget, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam are only pick ups from by-elections. Really, from the last election it's +6 for the Libs and -4 for the NDP.

For, for a grand total of:
Lib: +1
Green: +1
NDP: -2
?

[Hatman 🍁]

On a first glance of sorts, looks like a very good NDP performance in Vancouver, but lousy results in the places where elections are actually won.

NDP gained:
Vancouver-Point Grey
Vancouver-Fairview
Burnaby-Lougheed
Saanich North and the Islands

Liberal gained:
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Port Moody-Coquitlam
Delta North
Surrey-Fleetwood
Chilliwack-Hope
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Cariboo North
Fraser-Nicola

Green gained:
Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Indeed, Al is right. NDP gained in Vancouver, lost elsewhere.

Don't forget, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam are only pick ups from by-elections. Really, from the last election it's +6 for the Libs and -4 for the NDP.

For, for a grand total of:
Lib: +1
Green: +1
NDP: -2
?

Yes?


Speaking of those 2 by-elections, they certainly did not fall off the realm of possibility in terms of province-wide polling at the time. Could it be that the "silent majority" are less likely to vote in by-elections?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's more that government supporters are less likely to be motivated to vote in by-elections. That, and the fact that a certain percentage of any electorate will reflexively vote against the incumbent government (if given a chance) at any mid-term poll, just because.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So kinda like Alberta 2012?

Meh, that kinda sucks... but still fun to be reminded how crazy Canadian voters are!

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair thinks Kinder and unanswered Liberal attacks did it. Certainly part of it IMO.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Mulcair thinks Kinder and unanswered Liberal attacks did it. Certainly part of it IMO.

Certainly part of it, for sure, though the broader point I've picked up from the provincial elections in the last couple years is that Canadian voters seem to require serious convincing from challenging parties before they switch course. In Ontario, in Manitoba, in Quebec, Alberta, and here, all government parties either over-performed expectations from the start of the campaign, or just flat-out defied all polling, and only in Quebec did it just barely result in a change in government, and that seems to have reversed in the polling since.

The message I see in all of those for prospective challenging parties is that you can gain ground with a hope & change sentiment, but it's damn hard to win if that's all you're going to provide. The BC NDP, the PCs in Manitoba and Ontario, Wildrose in Alberta, just straight-up weren't specific and convincing enough, and if the voters in Canada aren't completely convinced, they'll side with the devil they know, even if they want something different deep down. You're a fascinating bunch.

[RogueBeaver]

Some more points made about strategy and policy, all of which I agree with. A point of my own: the challengers got trounced in the writ campaign, regardless of might've happened in the prewrit stage. So perhaps we junkies need to focus less on background and more on the writ campaigns themselves. Liberals ran a near-perfect writ campaign.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/05/15/what_bcs_election_means_for_canadas_new_and_eversomoderate_ndp_walkom.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/we-new-democrats-brought-this-defeat-upon-ourselves/article11943390/

[MaxQue]

If we take all elections results since 2009 (to include all provinces):

June 9, 2009, Nova Scotia: Polls were on (PC government defeated, 3rd position)
September 27, 2010, New Brunswick: Incumbent Liberals overestimated by around 3% in polls
May 2, 2011, Canada: Incumbent Conservatives underestimated by 4%
October 3, 2011, Prince Edward Island: Incumbent PC underestimated by 4%
October 4, 2011, Manitoba: Polls were on
October 6, 2001, Ontario: Polls were on
October 11, 2011, Newfoundland and Labrador: Polls were on
October 11, 2011, Yukon, Incumbent YP underestimated by 6%, but it's perhaps just bad polling.
November 7, 2011, Saskatchewan: Polls were on
April 23, 2012, Alberta: Incumbent PC underestimated by 8%
September 4, 2012, Quebec: Incumbent Liberals underestimated by 4%
May 14, 2013, British Columbia: Incumbent Liberals underestimated by 8%. 

[RogueBeaver]

Here's what we've been waiting for: the Ipsos exit poll, which forecast a Grit win almost exactly. Confirmation of my previous point. Liberals won those who decided during the middle, last week and E-Day. NDP won those who had decided in the pre-writ period. Economy was a major issue, NDP got creamed 58-32 with those voters. Leadership also a big issue and Liberals won those voters. Hell, even "trust" voters only chose Dix 45-40, which might've been Liberal-reinforced doubts about Dix/NDP's past and policies. Another big'un: "change" was only a big theme for 40% of voters.

[DC Al Fine]

If we take all elections results since 2009 (to include all provinces):

June 9, 2009, Nova Scotia: Polls were on (PC government defeated, 3rd position)
September 27, 2010, New Brunswick: Incumbent Liberals overestimated by around 3% in polls
May 2, 2011, Canada: Incumbent Conservatives underestimated by 4%
October 3, 2011, Prince Edward Island: Incumbent PC underestimated by 4%
October 4, 2011, Manitoba: Polls were on
October 6, 2001, Ontario: Polls were on
October 11, 2011, Newfoundland and Labrador: Polls were on
October 11, 2011, Yukon, Incumbent YP underestimated by 6%, but it's perhaps just bad polling.
November 7, 2011, Saskatchewan: Polls were on
April 23, 2012, Alberta: Incumbent PC underestimated by 8%
September 4, 2012, Quebec: Incumbent Liberals underestimated by 4%
May 14, 2013, British Columbia: Incumbent Liberals underestimated by 8%. 

Generally incumbents underpoll and over deliver.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wow, very strange.