British Columbia provincial election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Some seats which Clark could take.

GOTV also played a role, as expected.

[jaichind]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

[MaxQue]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

How about just no? The base would be terribly upset.

[MaxQue]

Some seats which Clark could take.

GOTV also played a role, as expected.

Vancouver-Quilchena are lucky, they have two MLAs!
No, really, there is a slight error, Moira Stilwell represent Vancouver-Langara.

[DC Al Fine]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

How about just no? The base would be terribly upset.

NDP has a GOTV problem. Obviously the solution is to piss off their most die hard voters.

[Hash]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

How about just no? The base would be terribly upset.

NDP has a GOTV problem. Obviously the solution is to piss off their most die hard voters.

Besides, it's a retarded idea. No political party in the world would ever do that unless they were especially suicidal. Voters don't actually give a sh**t about hot air like "constructive opposition", but they sure as hell do give a sh**t about the word opposition in general.

[minionofmidas]

They should do that and finance some kind of "local community independent" on the sly who'll thump her. It's a win-win!

[Benj]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority.  

Terrible idea. Political parties are meant to oppose, not appease one another.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

LOL. Playing nice has been credited as one of the reasons the NDP lost. Why bend over backwards?

Might as well have Clark shove a Dix up... well you get the picture with that analogy/pun

[DistingFlyer]

I've read only one or two comparisons in the papers to Harry Truman's upset but it is an apt one - not just the polls being wrong, but an aggressive, balls-out campaign beating a timid one.
Both cases saw the frontrunners so concerned about saying something that would alienate swing voters that they bored everyone silly and gave their supporters no reason to come out for them. "We'll be different . . . kind of . . . sort of . . . maybe . . " doesn't get you very far.
The Keating campaign, which also saw him not only win but increase his majority in spite of bad polls, makes a good comparison too, as does John Major's upset a year earlier. Something the NDP can take heart in - from all three cases - is what happened next time: voters had been ready for a change but went back to the incumbents at the last minute - however, the demand for something different became so strong that the opposition won smashing victories all three times (and stayed in power for quite a while afterwards). The Liberals got themselves an extra term, but I have a sneaking suspicion that in four years they're going to be a very small opposition for a very long time.

[Smid]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

Like Vancouver - Point Grey?

I've read only one or two comparisons in the papers to Harry Truman's upset but it is an apt one - not just the polls being wrong, but an aggressive, balls-out campaign beating a timid one.
Both cases saw the frontrunners so concerned about saying something that would alienate swing voters that they bored everyone silly and gave their supporters no reason to come out for them. "We'll be different . . . kind of . . . sort of . . . maybe . . " doesn't get you very far.
The Keating campaign, which also saw him not only win but increase his majority in spite of bad polls, makes a good comparison too, as does John Major's upset a year earlier. Something the NDP can take heart in - from all three cases - is what happened next time: voters had been ready for a change but went back to the incumbents at the last minute - however, the demand for something different became so strong that the opposition won smashing victories all three times (and stayed in power for quite a while afterwards). The Liberals got themselves an extra term, but I have a sneaking suspicion that in four years they're going to be a very small opposition for a very long time.

It is definitely possible to win one time too many... Compare also NSW in 2007, Queensland in 2009, it's possible the last SA election will fall into the same category (having lost the popular vote, but retained government), but obviously that depends on the results of the next election.

[DC Al Fine]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

Like Vancouver - Point Grey?

I've read only one or two comparisons in the papers to Harry Truman's upset but it is an apt one - not just the polls being wrong, but an aggressive, balls-out campaign beating a timid one.
Both cases saw the frontrunners so concerned about saying something that would alienate swing voters that they bored everyone silly and gave their supporters no reason to come out for them. "We'll be different . . . kind of . . . sort of . . . maybe . . " doesn't get you very far.
The Keating campaign, which also saw him not only win but increase his majority in spite of bad polls, makes a good comparison too, as does John Major's upset a year earlier. Something the NDP can take heart in - from all three cases - is what happened next time: voters had been ready for a change but went back to the incumbents at the last minute - however, the demand for something different became so strong that the opposition won smashing victories all three times (and stayed in power for quite a while afterwards). The Liberals got themselves an extra term, but I have a sneaking suspicion that in four years they're going to be a very small opposition for a very long time.

It is definitely possible to win one time too many... Compare also NSW in 2007, Queensland in 2009, it's possible the last SA election will fall into the same category (having lost the popular vote, but retained government), but obviously that depends on the results of the next election.

Eh, VPG is more of a slight Liberal lean.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

Like Vancouver - Point Grey?

I've read only one or two comparisons in the papers to Harry Truman's upset but it is an apt one - not just the polls being wrong, but an aggressive, balls-out campaign beating a timid one.
Both cases saw the frontrunners so concerned about saying something that would alienate swing voters that they bored everyone silly and gave their supporters no reason to come out for them. "We'll be different . . . kind of . . . sort of . . . maybe . . " doesn't get you very far.
The Keating campaign, which also saw him not only win but increase his majority in spite of bad polls, makes a good comparison too, as does John Major's upset a year earlier. Something the NDP can take heart in - from all three cases - is what happened next time: voters had been ready for a change but went back to the incumbents at the last minute - however, the demand for something different became so strong that the opposition won smashing victories all three times (and stayed in power for quite a while afterwards). The Liberals got themselves an extra term, but I have a sneaking suspicion that in four years they're going to be a very small opposition for a very long time.

It is definitely possible to win one time too many... Compare also NSW in 2007, Queensland in 2009, it's possible the last SA election will fall into the same category (having lost the popular vote, but retained government), but obviously that depends on the results of the next election.

Eh, VPG is more of a slight Liberal lean.

Historically yes, but could be it be trending NDP? I think so...

[Foucaulf]

I was planning to do a longer postmortem, but given my procrastination what I've wanted to say ought to have been written already somewhere.


There is a significant divide between Vancouver/Victoria and the rest of the province. In the cities the errors of the Liberals are well remembered: the HST, Enbridge, the scandals, refusal to legalize marijuana and solve the homelessness problem. But these issues evaporate from public concern when one is in Kelowna, even when one is in the Fraser Valley or the outer suburbs of Metro Vancouver.

If Clark is going up North and into the interior and greeting people, the local papers will report on it and people will take notice. Then she announced her plan to excavate Liquefied Natural Gas, saying there is potential for 1-2 trillion in the energy industry. I dismissed it as Pollyanna nonsense, and so do people in Metro Vancouver who work in industries quite removed from resource extraction. But for those outside the big cities resource extraction remains the primary industry, just as it have been decades before. At the very least, supporting the Liberals means guaranteed investment in their communities.

Pair that support outside the cities with immigrants in the cities. These immigrants may not all have been here during the last NDP government, but word of the scandals ring loud and clear through the years. The immigrants have no connections with the unions, and most have some kind of high-skill occupation. They see the NDP and they see a party that does little for them, and yet supports teachers whose strikes inhibit their children's futures. Surely the Liberals have better connections with CEOs and leaders in the ethnic community as well.

The movement of richer immigrants into Surrey and the tri-city area, I think, counts for the losses in Coquitlam-Maillardville, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Delta North and Surrey-Fleetwood. The lack of a NDP response deriding the Liberal economic gamble as claptrap meant they lost the other four interior ridings.

Turnout, in the end, was only a percent higher than in 2009, and that was the most low-key election in a long time. The youth vote probably remains abysmal. If the NDP gets to contest another election, they need to stop blaming the Greens for siphoning their vote. The Greens are hipper, and they wear their social liberalism more proudly. The BCNDP could learn from that.



On where Clark will run - I would have loved to see her defeat as an opportunity for angry cabinet members to backstab her, but barring that she should take a North Vancouver seat.

[Nichlemn]

Has anyone considered that maybe the NDP just has a ceiling in BC? Their best popular vote ever in BC was in 2009, when they still lost with ~42% of the vote. It doesn't really explain the poor performance of the polls, although maybe there are a fair number of people who didn't like the Liberals but would still begrudgingly turn out to stop the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone considered that maybe the NDP just has a ceiling in BC? Their best popular vote ever in BC was in 2009, when they still lost with ~42% of the vote. It doesn't really explain the poor performance of the polls, although maybe there are a fair number of people who didn't like the Liberals but would still begrudgingly turn out to stop the NDP.

Yes, I think a number of us had brought it up during the campaign- about how surprised we were that the NDP was above their regular ceiling. But basically, BC politics is all about uniting the so called "Free enterprise" voters in defeating the NDP. As long as they are united, the NDP loses. And for a while it looked like they weren't, but in the end the Tories got 4%. BC voters know this. They saw what happened in the 1990s and how the NDP won. They will go into the voting booth with a vise on their nose to avoid the horrible stench of voting Liberal, but in the end they will to stop the NDP. We can't forget how polarized the province is.

[DistingFlyer]

Has anyone considered that maybe the NDP just has a ceiling in BC? Their best popular vote ever in BC was in 2009, when they still lost with ~42% of the vote. It doesn't really explain the poor performance of the polls, although maybe there are a fair number of people who didn't like the Liberals but would still begrudgingly turn out to stop the NDP.

It does seem that NDP victories aren't so much dependent on a high vote for them as they are on a divided non-NDP vote. The elections where NDP support was highest (1979 - 46%, 1983 - 45%, 1986 - 43%) all saw them defeated.
There may be something to what you say about an NDP ceiling: even these last couple of years when the Liberal government was so unpopular, their support seldom rose above the high 40s. Their large lead was more due to a rise in Tory support at Liberal expense.

[DC Al Fine]

Has anyone considered that maybe the NDP just has a ceiling in BC? Their best popular vote ever in BC was in 2009, when they still lost with ~42% of the vote. It doesn't really explain the poor performance of the polls, although maybe there are a fair number of people who didn't like the Liberals but would still begrudgingly turn out to stop the NDP.

It does seem that NDP victories aren't so much dependent on a high vote for them as they are on a divided non-NDP vote. The elections where NDP support was highest (1979 - 46%, 1983 - 45%, 1986 - 43%) all saw them defeated.
There may be something to what you say about an NDP ceiling: even these last couple of years when the Liberal government was so unpopular, their support seldom rose above the high 40s. Their large lead was more due to a rise in Tory support at Liberal expense.

Hey, it's another Bluenoser!

[RogueBeaver]

Liberal pollster says he called a majority with 48 seats. Used old-style, manual landline methodology. Food for thought.

Here's the full exit. More people voted against than for, and those people voted Grit.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12724

[Hatman 🍁]

Other pollsters used landlines, as well. We used IVR. Not the reason pollsters were wrong.

[Nichlemn]

What happens if Christie somehow loses her by-election? Would she resign like John Tory did?

[Hatman 🍁]

What happens if Christie somehow loses her by-election? Would she resign like John Tory did?

Unlikely. She's obviously popular enough, as her government was re-elected. John Tory wasn't. Heh, John Tory's by-election bid is one of the biggest epic fails in Canadian political history.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I suspect NDP lost because of Dix's alleged FARC ties.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently there was a below-the-radar red-baiting campaign by the Liberals.

[MaxQue]

What happens if Christie somehow loses her by-election? Would she resign like John Tory did?

Unlikely. She's obviously popular enough, as her government was re-elected. John Tory wasn't. Heh, John Tory's by-election bid is one of the biggest epic fails in Canadian political history.

Corrected.
He was leading in 2007 election (until he messed it with talking of funding of religious schools, which came totally from nowhere) and also decided to run against a Liberal incumbent (the then Education Minister, now Prime Minister, Kathleen Wynne), in his home seat, in Toronto. Both were bad.