British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

This is in less than a month, May 14.

CBC vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/features/votecompass/

[Hatman 🍁]

Just took it.

They have the NDP and the Greens at virtually the same place... makes you wonder what the point of the Greens are there. At least in Ontario they are right wing.

I got: 77% NDP, 75% Green, 57% Lib, 32% Cons

[Hash]

Just took it.

They have the NDP and the Greens at virtually the same place... makes you wonder what the point of the Greens are there. At least in Ontario they are right wing.

I got: 77% NDP, 75% Green, 57% Lib, 32% Cons

My results: 78% NDP, 76% Greens, 60% Liberals, 32% Purgatories

[Supersonic]

Con: 77. Lib: 61. NDP: 37. Green: 32.

Doesn't really mean much to me, but hey-ho.

[Zanas]

I love how they categorize "education, research, government service and religion" together ! Whether you are a teacher, a scientist or a priest, you're clearly in the same politically relevant bunch of people...

Anyway, I have Green and NDP tied at 75%, Libs at 49% and Cons at 23%. No surprise here.

[You kip if you want to...]

68% NDP
60% Greens
52% BC Liberals
33% CPBC

[ilikeverin]

76% NDP
74% GRN
63% LIB
31% CON

[Хahar 🤔]

Remember a year ago when the Conservatives and Liberals were level in the polls? That's over now. The NDP still does have a very comfortable lead.

NDP 74%
GRN 67%
LIB 47%
CON 28%

[RogueBeaver]

Christy Clark is at Government House now, the LG is signing the writs. Legislature will be dissolved in a few minutes.

[Marokai Backbeat]

NDP 76%
GRN 73%
LIB 55%
CON 33%

[RogueBeaver]

The Legislature has been dissolved. Clark is now scrumming outside Guv House.

[RogueBeaver]

Dippers dump their Kelowna-Mission candidate for posting racist remarks about Aboriginals online.

[Hatman 🍁]

Short campaign season, less than a month? Wow. I thought it had already started.

[DC Al Fine]

This is in less than a month, May 14.

CBC vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/features/votecompass/

So NDP & Green are exactly the same, with the Liberals/Tories only separated by social issues.

[DC Al Fine]

Just took it.

They have the NDP and the Greens at virtually the same place... makes you wonder what the point of the Greens are there. At least in Ontario they are right wing.

I got: 77% NDP, 75% Green, 57% Lib, 32% Cons

The Greens are right wing in ON? They are pretty much non-existent here.

[the506]

59% Liberal
56% Conservative
49% Green
49% NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Just took it.

They have the NDP and the Greens at virtually the same place... makes you wonder what the point of the Greens are there. At least in Ontario they are right wing.

I got: 77% NDP, 75% Green, 57% Lib, 32% Cons

The Greens are right wing in ON? They are pretty much non-existent here.

Yes. I remember seeing the CBC vote compass for the election. Some of their policies were shocking in how right wing they were.

[lilTommy]

.. I did the compass yesterday, forget the actual results but i was 86% NDP 85% Green... so

Ya i think for the green party its based on the parties histories... ON you see it full of old PCs, like Jim Harris so it tilts to the right. I bet BC is more dominated by anti-development types, the sort who fought clayquot, the more radical hippie type who didn't fit in the more moderate, pro-forestry/hydro NDP.

Looks like an NDP win, unless they muck it up somehow, some real questions:
- Will the Greens or Conservatives win any seats?
- How bad will the Liberals lose?

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like an NDP win, unless they muck it up somehow, some real questions:
- Will the Greens or Conservatives win any seats?
- How bad will the Liberals lose?

1) Doubtful at this point, although either of them could do better than 20% in a riding or 2.
2) Was going to be Campbellesque when the Tories were polling even with the Liberals. Now I'd just say it'll be a normal landslide.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't rule out the Tories not winning any seats. While they're polling in the low teens, their vote is probably more concentrated than the Greens.

Speaking of polls

Angus Reid published one today:

NDP: 45%
Lib: 28%
Grn: 13%
Cons: 12%

Regional numbers:

Metro Vancouver

NDP: 45%
Lib: 30%
Grn: 11%
Cons: 12%


Vancouver Island

NDP: 45%
Lib: 19%
Grn: 22%
Cons: 11%

Interior

NDP: 43%
Lib: 32%
Grn: 10%
Cons: 12%

North

NDP: 62%
Lib: 19%
Grn: 2%
Cons: 7%


Those north numbers musn't include the Peace Region, if the NDP is that high?

Also, dominating.

[DC Al Fine]

Greens @ 22% on Vancouver Island. Will that translate into seats?

[Benj]

For a change of pace in the Vote Compass:

LIB: 61%
NDP: 59%
GRN: 59%
CON: 36%

Despite that, I would definitely vote NDP in this election (or maybe Green in a safe seat for some party)  in part due to Christy Clark's manifest incompetence. But also I'm marginally left-of-center on economic issues (and way socially liberal), and actually slightly closer to the NDP on the chart (who are on the edge of my "penumbra" while the Liberals are outside it), even though not on percentage agreement, so the economically more rightist Liberals are not necessarily appealing.

[Smid]

Liberals trailing in all regions is surprising. No areas of real strength.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos Reid:

NDP: 48
Lib: 29
Cons: 11
Grn: 9

Metro Van: NDP leads 48-33
Van Island: NDP leads 52-24
Interior/North: NDP leads 46-25 (Tories at 15)

[Foucaulf]

NDP 80%; Green 77%; Liberal 53%; Conservatives 28%. The only question on which I agreed with the Cons was, surprisingly enough, fishing rights for Native peoples.

some real questions:
- Will the Greens or Conservatives win any seats?
- How bad will the Liberals lose?

1) Probably not. Neither party has done the community outreach or donor base at the real parties' level. If the Greens can win one seat it's in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where they actually have a star candidate in climatologist Andrew Weaver. Conservative leader John Cummins is by no means a star candidate and I'll be very surprised if he wins his riding of Langley. Note as well that the Greens have been consistently overpolled since the 2001 election.

2) I'd say the Liberals lose at least 20 seats, up to 32 or so. They'll be massacred in Vancouver proper, Burnaby and the Tri-city suburbs (Coquitlam, Port Moody) and shut out of Vancouver Island. NDP will win a seat each in North Vancouver, Richmond and Southern Surrey, and a lot more in the Interior. The most solid base remaining for the Liberals is the Fraser Valley, but if the NDP can win again in Chilliwack from a 3-way split then it's time to really panic.