British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Burquitlam is a terrible portmanteau. Commissioners should be ashamed.

Luckily no such riding exists anymore. But, I think they can be forgiven as it *may* be a local colloquialism. However, I don't know for sure.

It seems to be more than a colloquialism, Coquitlam seems to use the word to designate some part of the cities.

Yeah, so what's the problem? It's kind of dumb, but you can't fault the commissioners.

Anyways, I realized I had originally posted the trend map twice on my blog. I have fixed this. There isn't much difference between the two maps though.

[RogueBeaver]

Clark continues her Alberta-bashing.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/05/08/jesse-kline-2/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Global BC's seat-by-seat analysis.

http://globalnews.ca/news/539331/analysis-ndp-still-set-for-sizeable-majority-in-next-weeks-election/

[Hatman 🍁]

So, the Tyee is doing a list, Global, electionpredictions.org, 308, Blunt Objects... am I forgetting anyone?

I have to disagree with some of Global's picks. I think at this point Vancouver-Point Grey is a pure toss up.

[RogueBeaver]

Global also has a look back at '91.

http://globalnews.ca/news/507032/daily-dozen-remembering-the-1991-election-in-12-videos/

[Hatman 🍁]

Global also has a look back at '91.

http://globalnews.ca/news/507032/daily-dozen-remembering-the-1991-election-in-12-videos/

I will be posting a map of the 1991 and 1996 elections at some point.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully she loses VPG so they don't need to do this. Not that I'd be surprised if she didn't resign as Liberal leader immediately.

http://globalnews.ca/news/546966/exclusive-movement-underway-within-bc-liberals-to-oust-christy-clark/

[lilTommy]

Clark tried to vote for herself... realized she voted wrong? wait what? in BC you can do advanced voting in a riding you don't live in? AND then vote for a candidate in another riding that your in? (article said she was in Burnaby voting for the Van-Fairview candidate?)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/05/08/bc-christy-clark-vote.html

[MaxQue]

Clark tried to vote for herself... realized she voted wrong? wait what? in BC you can do advanced voting in a riding you don't live in? AND then vote for a candidate in another riding that your in? (article said she was in Burnaby voting for the Van-Fairview candidate?)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/05/08/bc-christy-clark-vote.html

Yes, it's quite common, the possibility exists at the federal level and at Quebec level since last election, too.

It's mostly for people which are temporally away from their home and can't change their permanent address.

So, Clark lives in Van-Fairview and she decided to use what is called "special vote" at the federal level, I think.

[MaxQue]

Wrong. Federal doesn't have it, but Quebec has it, it's called "vote hors circonscription".

http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/english/provincial/voting/voting-at-the-office-of-the-returning-officer.php

[Hatman 🍁]

2 new polls:

Oracle poll:

NDP: 41
Lib: 37
Grn: 12
Cons: 10

H&K

NDP: 41
Lib: 35
Grn: 14
Cons: 7.5

North:

Lib: 38
NDP: 30
Grn: 8.5
Cons: 3

(finally a northern tab that makes sense)

Metro

NDP: 48
Lib: 33
Grn: 10
Cons: 6

Interior

NDP: 39
Lib: 31
Grn: 13
Cons: 13

Van Island
NDP: 35
Lib: 31
Grn: 24
Cons: 7

Wow, Liberal come back on the Island, or just an outlier?


So, the race tightens some more. Can the Liberals get even by E-Day?

[Peter the Lefty]

Whoa this is worrying.  Hope it's just a fluke poll.  Please, oh please, whatever higher powers may be, please don't let this be for real.

[RogueBeaver]

Whoa this is worrying.  Hope it's just a fluke poll.  Please, oh please, whatever higher powers may be, please don't let this be for real.

I heard Oracle is a Green pollster, but the tightening is very real. Dix is for some inksing reason refusing to go negative and while Clark may be Kim Campbell 2.0 in many ways, she knows retail. In a broader context, Alberta's Wildrose and Ontario's PCs blew their last election while the PQ won a squeaker. I still think Dix wins but closer than it should be.

[2952-0-0]

What if it leads to the Green Party holding the exact balance of power?

[Hatman 🍁]

What if it leads to the Green Party holding the exact balance of power?

The Greens and NDP are nearly identical, so I think some sort of agreement could be arranged.

[RogueBeaver]

10 reasons why Clark could win.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/05/09/10-reasons-christy-clark-could-actually-win-the-b-c-election/

[Hatman 🍁]

10 reasons why Clark could win.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/05/09/10-reasons-christy-clark-could-actually-win-the-b-c-election/

....

I hate Macleans.

[RogueBeaver]

BC2013 has their preliminary projection out, final one's on Monday. NDP 56 (+20), Liberal 23 (-22), Con/Green 1, 4 Indies. PV: 44% NDP, 35% Liberal.

http://bc2013.com/2013/05/10/preliminary-election-prediction/

[RogueBeaver]

Final Ipsos poll: 43-37 NDP, 8 point lead in Metro Van and 12 point lead on the island. Big Dipper majority.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6111

[Hatman 🍁]

Another predictor. 4 Indies? Wow! Also, no.

[RogueBeaver]

Proguesstion for that Ipsos poll is 58-27, no minor parties. I guess you're doing your final projection on Monday, Hatman? I'm just hoping Clark loses VPG so the BCLP can move on ASAP.

[MaxQue]

Proguesstion for that Ipsos poll is 58-27, no minor parties. I guess you're doing your final projection on Monday, Hatman? I'm just hoping Clark loses VPG so the BCLP can move on ASAP.

If I remember, he said he won't do any projection due to its new position as analyst for a pollster.

[Hatman 🍁]

Proguesstion for that Ipsos poll is 58-27, no minor parties. I guess you're doing your final projection on Monday, Hatman? I'm just hoping Clark loses VPG so the BCLP can move on ASAP.

If I remember, he said he won't do any projection due to its new position as analyst for a pollster.

If I get a chance, I will be doing a mathematical based projection, something simple so that there's no bias...

Some more polls:

FR: race tightens, but NDP is up; just not as much as the Libs. Greens collapse.

NDP: 43 (+4)
Lib: 41 (+6)
Grn: 8 (-4)
Cons: 6 (-3)


Another "Justason" poll. Shows the NDP way out in head. Outlier?

NDP: 45 (-4)
Lib: 31 (+4)
Grn: 14 (+2)
Cons: 8  (-3)

[RogueBeaver]

Angus-Reid: 45-36. Dippers can breathe easier, but I'd still recommend flooring it till Tuesday.

Here's the write-up.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-ndp-widens-lead-days-before-election-poll-1.1276886

[Hatman 🍁]

[RogueBeaver]

There should be a final poll on Monday, dunno if anyone else is polling over the weekend. I'm not posting anything from the joke pollster. Interestingly enough in '09 Ipsos pegged 47-39 in their final poll and Angus-Reid 44-42, this time A-R has the wider lead. BCLP brings together the strangest bedfellows: Harper and Ford Tories alongside McGuinty Liberals, working for an opportunistic chameleon who was once a Martinite and now leads a severely conservative party.

NP write-up.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/05/10/brian-hutchinson-after-a-long-strange-campaign-b-c-voters-still-left-to-roll-the-dice/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter