British Columbia provincial election 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

According to Frank Graves' Twitter feed, we will be releasing a poll as well. I haven't been working on anything BC related myself at work, so I have no idea how true that is.

[DL]

One thing I find particularly interesting about the Angus Reid poll is a unique methodology they are using in this final poll. Instead of giving everyone the same generic vote question they figure out which of the 85 ridings everyone lives in and give each respondent an actual sample ballot for their riding with local candidate names listed. This means that if you are in a riding with no Conservative candidate you cannot say you are voting Conservative ditto for Greens and it would also give people names of independents some of whom are high profile and could win.

In 2009 AR used this same approach in their final poll and they nailed the final results almost dead on. They said Libs 44 and NDP 42 and it ended up 45-42, all the other polls in 2009 that were done by phone underestimated NDP support and gave the BC Liberals 9 to 11 point leads. We shall see who is right this time.

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy's final projection: 60-23 with 2 Indies.

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2013/05/bc-projection-teddy.html?showComment=1367476506282

[RogueBeaver]

Angus-Reid crosstabs.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/2013.05.11_Politics_BC.pdf

[Meeker]

Have the boundaries been changed since the 2009 election?

[DC Al Fine]

Have the boundaries been changed since the 2009 election?

No

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing I find particularly interesting about the Angus Reid poll is a unique methodology they are using in this final poll. Instead of giving everyone the same generic vote question they figure out which of the 85 ridings everyone lives in and give each respondent an actual sample ballot for their riding with local candidate names listed. This means that if you are in a riding with no Conservative candidate you cannot say you are voting Conservative ditto for Greens and it would also give people names of independents some of whom are high profile and could win.

In 2009 AR used this same approach in their final poll and they nailed the final results almost dead on. They said Libs 44 and NDP 42 and it ended up 45-42, all the other polls in 2009 that were done by phone underestimated NDP support and gave the BC Liberals 9 to 11 point leads. We shall see who is right this time.

That's really cool. I guess since they do online polls, they either asked for the respondent's riding or determined it by postal code.

[adma]

Teddy's final projection: 60-23 with 2 Indies.

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2013/05/bc-projection-teddy.html?showComment=1367476506282

Somehow, even if it isn't quite as MOE-narrow a race as some polls indicate, 60-23 seems extreme at the present point.  I'd more likely foresee a reverse version of the Campbell vs James seat totals, taking into account incumbent advantages, ballot-box "normalization", etc...

[batmacumba]

So, here's the voters behavioural tendencies in 2013. Updated to 10/05.



Isn't Clarke that dead, or is it just the cat bounce?

[Hatman 🍁]

BC Iconoclast also has a prediction: http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html

[lilTommy]

BC Iconoclast also has a prediction: http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html

GAH! i was just going to post this...

"NDP will win 56 seats, the Liberals 23, independents 4 and Greens 2"

I'm not sold on his 2 green seats (Oak Bay-Gordon Head & Victoria-Beacon Hill), I think it will be tight as he's suggesting, in OBGH specifically this ones a toss up, i'm leaning more on the safe side that voters will go NDP; a gov't MLA and a slump in green polling, just makes me think this will be close but not this year. BUT too close!
Victoria-Beacon Hill though, this still looks/sounds like a solid NDP riding. Former leader, possible minister (maybe, could be a gift to Carole for having been canned so openly and viciously), vs the Green leader who isn't from the riding (this always irks me). Saanich North is more likely to go Green then VBH i think.

Indies are always hard to gage - Delta south, she won in 09 so solid bet she can win again... the only one i'm not sold on is Cariboo North. Went NDP in 05/09 with Simpson as a Dipper, and i'm sure he's developed a loyal base, i'm just not sure thats enough. The Tyee is calling this a BCL riding expecting Simpson and the NDP to split the vote enough for them to slip in. I'm hoping the opposite happens and the NDP slips in but, wishful thinking. Interestingly The Tyee is also calling OBGH for the BCL with a green/NDP split... i don't think thats going to happen.

http://election.thetyee.ca

[Hatman 🍁]

EP is calling Cariboo North for Simpson, so it's possible.

I'm not sold on Victoria Beacon Hill either. Why would voters turf Carole James for a Greenie? Not sure what the poll break down is for that riding vs. the federal by-election, but I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP won it.  Oak Bay-Gordon Head however I think will go Green.

[Hatman 🍁]

For those of you who are interested, here are the results of the last election by region (the regions most often used by pollsters):

Interior:
Lib: 47
NDP: 39
Grn: 8
Cons: 5
Other: 1

Van Islan:
NDP: 50
Lib: 39
Grn: 10
Other: 1

Metro Van:
Lib: 49
NDP: 41
Grn: 7
Cons: 1
Other: 2

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS: 40.5-34.5, Green 13, Tories 9.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS: 40.5-34.5, Green 13, Tories 9.

I had a had in making the weights, so if it's wrong, I'm partially to blame. To bad we didn't do regional breakdowns.

[MaxQue]

Surprised it's a real person which does that, not a computer.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised it's a real person which does that, not a computer.

LOL. It is, but I had to find the data.

[DL]

EKOS: 40.5-34.5, Green 13, Tories 9.

I had a had in making the weights, so if it's wrong, I'm partially to blame. To bad we didn't do regional breakdowns.

Do you compensate in any way for the fact that in 24 ridings there is no Green on the ballot and in 30 there is no Bc Conservative?

[RogueBeaver]

Final Angus-Reid: 45-36, Green 9, Tories 7. C'est fini.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS: 40.5-34.5, Green 13, Tories 9.

I had a had in making the weights, so if it's wrong, I'm partially to blame. To bad we didn't do regional breakdowns.

Do you compensate in any way for the fact that in 24 ridings there is no Green on the ballot and in 30 there is no Bc Conservative?

I don't know, I was just doing the demographic weights.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final Angus-Reid: 45-36, Green 9, Tories 7. C'est fini.

Only change is the Tories are up 1? Is there a pdf out there?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is my BC *projection*: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/05/british-columbia-provincoal-election.html

Note though, that it is not my personal prediction, just a math based projection. For example, I think the Greens will win Oak Bay-Gordon Head, and I think the Liberals will win Cariboo North. However, I'm confident with the rest of the data. If it's a good prediction, I will make some tweaks and use a similar model for other provinces.

[RogueBeaver]

Province's ed board on Dix: "Jumpy, combative, condescending, hyperpartisan policy wonk." Whereas Clark was "warm, engaging, and carried herself like a premier." Either Dix has an obnoxious side which no one else has seen or The Province is engaging in Levant/Mallick-style hackery. Also LOL @ Clark "carrying herself like a premier." Yes, Kim Campbell 2.0 is such a stateswoman.

[RogueBeaver]

Final Ipsos: 45-37, Green 9, Tory 6. Dippers lead by double digits on Vancouver Island and Metro Vancouver while the Liberals have a small Interior lead.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final Ipsos: 45-37, Green 9, Tory 6. Dippers lead by double digits on Vancouver Island and Metro Vancouver while the Liberals have a small Interior lead.

I saw this this morning and factored it into my map. The jump in Metro Vancouver caused Surrey-Panorama to flip NDP from when I first created the map last night (having assumed there'd be no more polls)