Italy 2013 official results thread

[Franknburger]

In the 1980s, there were two state-level elections in Hamburg (1982 and 1986) that had the Greens coming up strongly, depriving each SPD and CDU of an outright majority. At that time, the Hamburg Greens (which I used to be a member of) were quite similar to MSS - refusing any coalition, but offering case-by-case support to specific legislation, conditional to prior approval by their party base.

Both times, the incumbent SPD sat it out for a few months before calling in re-election, which had the Greens losing significantly (down from 10.4 to 7.0 in 1986/87). The SPD achieved absolute majority in the 1982 re-election, while in early 1987, the FDP managed to get above 5% and afterwards formed a coalition with the SPD.

I wonder whether a similar thing may also happen in Italy this year ..

[SPQR]

Back to results. Turnout was down five points... on a previous record low.

Yeah, that's quite depressing, but still impressive when you think about it. Without Grillo, it would probably have been much worse.

Yeah, I'm more wondering how high it would have had to be for Grillo to win.

Hopefully we'll never know.

That clown scares me every day more. He pretends that his movement is the most democratic amongst all parties,but then all decisions are taken by him and fellow millionaire Casaleggio,without ever consulting the activists.

[saintjuste1791]

Yeah, so why go for a centrist? That's going against what the voters want.

The bankers and Eurocrats had Monti installed directly for them.  He wasn't going to win.  The centre-left in Italy is mostly compliant to their wishes so they woudl have been fine with a PD government or Bersani-Monti coalition.  But Renzi was their preferred candidate for PD so any excuse to explain Bersani's relative loss to their benefit will be employed by parts of the news media. 

Expect the narrative from some not to be 'Italians voted against austerity and Brussels' but 'Italians voted for reform of their economy ... and so the PD should reform itself away from trade union control towards liberalising the economy'. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyone interested in seat projections with different electoral systems? I have crunched a few numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

Anyone interested in seat projections with different electoral systems? I have crunched a few numbers.

Please.

[Keystone Phil]

Anyone interested in seat projections with different electoral systems? I have crunched a few numbers.

I've been wondering what a French style system would result in. I imagine the center-left must be at least slightly better positioned given their advocacy. Is the center-right openly skeptical? I've never seen their take on it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, here are some Camera hypothetical numbers.


For the record, actual results:

PD 297
M5S 109
PdL 98
Monti 39
SEL 37
Lega 18
FdI 9
UDC 8
CD 6
SVP 5
Oth 4


Camera without the majority bonus (same rules otherwise):

PD 170
M5S 167
PdL 150
Monti 59
Lega 28
SEL 21
FdI 13
UDC 12
CD 3
SVP 3
Oth 4


Camera with full PR (no bonus, no threshold whatsoever):

PD 162
M5S 159
PdL 134
Monti 53
Lega 25
SEL 20
RC 14
FdI 12
UDC 11
FiD 7
Destra 4
CD 3
FLI 3
SVP 3
GS 3
Oth Right 2
Oth 15


Camera with the German system (straight 5% threshold, no coalition):

PD 199
M5S 196
PdL 166
Monti 65
Oth 4


Camera with the Greek system (3% threshold, 103-seats majority bonus):

M5S 253 (150 if you tweak the system a bit and give the bonus to PD)
PD 153 (256 with the bonus)
PdL 127
Monti 50
Lega 24
SEL 19
Oth 4


Camera with the Spanish system (PR at the Constituency level, d'Hondt method):

M5S 184
PD 183
PdL 156
Monti 51
Lega 24
SEL 12
RC 6
SVP 4
UDC 3
FdI 2
FiD 1
Oth 4


Camera with Coalition winner-take all by constituency (seats apportioned by PR within the coalition):

PdL 227
PD 159
M5S 116
Lega 61
FdI 21
SEL 19
SVP 7
Destra 6
GS 5
Oth Right 4
Oth 5


And finally a system I devised (103-seats bonus given to the winning coalition, 10% coalition threshold, 5% individual party threshold, 3% in-coalition party threshold):

PD 238
M5S 140
PdL 135
Monti 60
SEL 29
Lega 25
Oth 3


Coalition numbers summary:

Coalition	Act.	No B	PR	Ger	Grk	Spa	Cst	Pers
Left	345	197	188	199	275	199	185	267
Right	125	191	180	166	151	182	324	160
M5S	109	167	159	196	150	184	116	140
Monti	47	71	67	65	50	54	0	60
Oth	4	4	36	4	4	11	5	3

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's a chart to see it better:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyone interested in seat projections with different electoral systems? I have crunched a few numbers.

I've been wondering what a French style system would result in. I imagine the center-left must be at least slightly better positioned given their advocacy. Is the center-right openly skeptical? I've never seen their take on it.

Unfortunately, it's impossible to project what a French system would result in terms of seats when you have 1- no pre-existing single-member constituencies and 2- a very fragmented political landscape... But yeah, my guess is that the left would have benefitted overall (though not nearly enough to win an outright majority).

[Franknburger]

All right, here are some Camera hypothetical numbers.
Camera with the German system (straight 5% threshold, no coalition):

PD 199
M5S 196
PdL 166
Monti 65
Oth 4

The German system includes a "protection of ethnic minorities" clause, which is not relevant on the Federal level, but, e.g., for Schleswig-Holstein, where the Danish-minority SSW is freed from the 5% threshold. As such, SVP, presumably also french minority candidates from Val d'Aosta, should be considered under the German system.
Also, you have the "5% threshold becomes invalid if a constituency is won directly" clause, which is a bit more difficult to emulate for Italy, but might have helped SEL, possibly also Lega, in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, here are some Camera hypothetical numbers.
Camera with the German system (straight 5% threshold, no coalition):

PD 199
M5S 196
PdL 166
Monti 65
Oth 4

The German system includes a "protection of ethnic minorities" clause, which is not relevant on the Federal level, but, e.g., for Schleswig-Holstein, where the Danish-minority SSW is freed from the 5% threshold. As such, SVP, presumably also french minority candidates from Val d'Aosta, should be considered under the German system.
Also, you have the "5% threshold becomes invalid if a constituency is won directly" clause, which is a bit more difficult to emulate for Italy, but might have helped SEL, possibly also Lega, in.

I didn't know that clause existed at the national level... So yeah, that would mean the SVP qualifies and, depending on how the system exactly works, maybe Lega too.

PD 198
M5S 195
PdL 165
Monti 65
SVP 3
Oth 4

With Lega in, that would make a huge difference (and make it almost a tie between right and left).

[Franknburger]

All right, here are some Camera hypothetical numbers.
Camera with the German system (straight 5% threshold, no coalition):

PD 199
M5S 196
PdL 166
Monti 65
Oth 4

The German system includes a "protection of ethnic minorities" clause, which is not relevant on the Federal level, but, e.g., for Schleswig-Holstein, where the Danish-minority SSW is freed from the 5% threshold. As such, SVP, presumably also french minority candidates from Val d'Aosta, should be considered under the German system.
Also, you have the "5% threshold becomes invalid if a constituency is won directly" clause, which is a bit more difficult to emulate for Italy, but might have helped SEL, possibly also Lega, in.

I didn't know that clause existed at the national level... So yeah, that would mean the SVP qualifies and, depending on how the system exactly works, maybe Lega too.

PD 198
M5S 195
PdL 165
Monti 65
SVP 3
Oth 4

With Lega in, that would make a huge difference (and make it almost a tie between right and left).

If a party wins at least three constituencies, it is released from the 5% threshold. If it wins only one or two, it keeps these seats but is otherwise not entitled to PR.  In the1994 federal election, the PDS won four constituencies and thus gained full PR on ther 4.4% vote share, while in 2002, they only won two, so their 4.0% vote share remained unconsidered for PR vote allocation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, here are some Camera hypothetical numbers.
Camera with the German system (straight 5% threshold, no coalition):

PD 199
M5S 196
PdL 166
Monti 65
Oth 4

The German system includes a "protection of ethnic minorities" clause, which is not relevant on the Federal level, but, e.g., for Schleswig-Holstein, where the Danish-minority SSW is freed from the 5% threshold. As such, SVP, presumably also french minority candidates from Val d'Aosta, should be considered under the German system.
Also, you have the "5% threshold becomes invalid if a constituency is won directly" clause, which is a bit more difficult to emulate for Italy, but might have helped SEL, possibly also Lega, in.

I didn't know that clause existed at the national level... So yeah, that would mean the SVP qualifies and, depending on how the system exactly works, maybe Lega too.

PD 198
M5S 195
PdL 165
Monti 65
SVP 3
Oth 4

With Lega in, that would make a huge difference (and make it almost a tie between right and left).

If a party wins at least three constituencies, it is released from the 5% threshold. If it wins only one or two, it keeps these seats but is otherwise not entitled to PR.  In the1994 federal election, the PDS won four constituencies and thus gained full PR on ther 4.4% vote share, while in 2002, they only won two, so their 4.0% vote share remained unconsidered for PR vote allocation.

Really? Wow, the German electoral law has some hidden depths I was unaware of...

Anyway, that's certainly very relevant for Lega. It actually came first in one province (Sondrio) and came close in a few others in northern Lombardia. A victory in 3 out of theoretically 309 constituencies is certainly a fair possibility (though maybe not the likeliest option). Maybe PdL would withdraw their candidates in a few constituencies in order to allow Lega to gain representation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll post all the Senate numbers tomorrow.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Personally I think the Spanish system would be the best here. (of those listed at least)

[ERvND]

In the1994 federal election, the PDS won four constituencies and thus gained full PR on ther 4.4% vote share, while in 2002, they only won two, so their 4.0% vote share remained unconsidered for PR vote allocation.

This was the time (2002-2005) when the PDS - nowadays "Linke" - had only two members in the Bundestag. When one of them gave a speech, only one person in the whole assembly, the other PDS member, would applaud. They didn't even have a desk for themselves, so they brought a camping desk in protest. Fun times.

[Famous Mortimer]

I'd like to see what the Knesset would look like with with a half way non-crazy vote threshold.

[RogueBeaver]

PD wants an early election after the presidential vote and enacting a new electoral law. Repubblica says Napolitano doesn't want a PD minority, perhaps technocrats. Apparently they didn't cite sources though.

[jaichind]

Not sure what election reform they are talking about?  Is it to do something like the 54% rule in the Senate as well?  This does not make sense to me.  The fact is Berlusconi and  Grillo got around 55% of the vote betwen them.  Any election reform where a government can be formed with neither Berlusconi nor Grillo involved seems like either it will not work or is just a technical way to steal the election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, here's the Senate!

First of all, here are the results by region, ranked from left to right.

Toscana +22.15 (M5S second, 20.74 behind)
Emilia-Romagna +20.8 (M5S second, 19.05 behind)
Umbria +12.31 (M5S second, 12.28 behind)
Basilicata +11.34
Marche +10.94 (M5S second, 2.89 behind)
Liguria +8.92 (M5S second, 2.69 behind)
Sardegna +6.25 (M5S second, 3 behind)
Lazio +3.44
Piemonte +0.53
FVG +0.5
Molise +0.18
Abruzzo -1.54 (M5S second, 1.26 behind)
Calabria -1.63
Puglia -6.01
Sicilia -6.07 (M5S second, 3.89 behind)
Veneto -7.86
Lombardia -7.88
Campania -8.35

Weird results, really. Campania and Lombardia, which were perceived as swing regions, ended up being the two strongest, over Veneto and Sicilia, where the right had a clearer advantage in polls. Also compare with 2006, where the left won Calabria, Campania and Abruzzo while losing Lazio, Piemonte and FVG. The right really saved its ass by holding ground in the South.


So, these are the real results:

PD 111
PdL 98
M5S 54
Monti 19
Lega 18
SEL 7
SVP 2
PATT 1
UPT 1
Megafono 1
GS 1
Vd'A 1
MAIE 1


Results if the left had won by 5 points (uniform 2.04 points swing from right to left).

PD 119
PdL 91
M5S 52
Monti 20
Lega 18
SEL 8
SVP 2
PATT 1
UPT 1
Megafono 1
Vd'A 1
MAIE 1

The left+Monti has 152 seats, 6 short of a majority (instead of 16). To win a majority with Monti, the left would need to win Puglia (so a uniform swing of 3.01 points from right to left and a margin of victory of 6.93). Amazingly, Sicilia and Veneto, rather than Lombardia and Campania, are the left's path to 158 (that would require the left to win by 8.77). If the left won by 10 points however, it would carry every region and win a massive landslide.


Results without the majority bonus (same system otherwise):

PD 101
PdL 87
M5S 74
Monti 24
Lega 14
SEL 7
Megafono 2
SVP 2
PATT 1
UPT 1
Vd'A 1
MAIE 1


Results with full PR (largest remainder) by region:

PD 89
M5S 75
PdL 71
Monti 33
Lega 14
SEL 9
RC 6
FdI 4
FiD 2
SVP 2
Megafono 2
GS 2
PATT 1
UPT 1
Destra 1
PP 1
Vd'A 1
MAIE 1


Results with coalition winner-take-all by region:

PD 128
PdL 117
Lega 26
SEL 14
FdI 9
GS 6
PP 3
SVP 2
MAIE 2
PATT 1
UPT 1
Destra 1
BT 1
CP 1
CD 1
PSI 1
Vd'A 1


And finally, a system with a 25% majority bonus, 15% coalition threshold, 8% individual party threshold, and 5% in-coalition party threshold:

PD 113
PdL 103
M5S 59
Monti 18
Lega 15
SEL 2
SVP 2
Megafono 1
Vd'A 1
MAIE 1


Here's the coalition summary:

Coalition	Act.	No B	PR	WTA	Pers
Left	123	114	104	148	118
Right	117	101	93	164	118
M5S	54	74	75	0	59
Monti	19	24	33	0	18
Oth	2	2	10	3	2

[Antonio the Sixth]

And the accompanying chart:

[RogueBeaver]

Names being floated: BOI governor Ignazio Visco, Amato or Renzi.

http://www.economywatch.com/in-the-news/italy-may-appoint-second-technocrat-government.04-03.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9906213/Anger-builds-in-Italy-as-old-guard-plots-fresh-technocrat-take-over.html

[Hash]

Another technocratic government seems like a great idea if they fancy a M5S landslide.

[Keystone Phil]

So late June is the earliest for an early election. Unless it happens then (if at all), it looks like we'll have to wait until September since I'm pretty sure they don't have elections in July or August.

[Keystone Phil]

Grillo is in Rome and reiterates that there will not be confidence in a Bersani government.