Italy 2013 official results thread

[Hash]

Berlusca also bribed a few leftist deputies (including 2 from IdV, hilariously enough) to save his skin in the infamous Dec. 2010 confidence vote.

[rob in cal]

    Anyone find any polling data of the 2nd choice of voters for Grillo and Monti's parties.  I'm wondering who they would have voted for if Italy had some kind of runoff system with districts like France.  (Though of course in many cases the Five Star candidate would have made such a runoff).  Also, I'm wondering what would have happened if Italian voters were presented with a choice of only a Berlusconi bloc and a Bersani bloc, similar to 2006.  I'm guessing a solid victory for the left in that case.

[Keystone Phil]

M5S voters are interesting. Firstly, I'd say a lot of them wouldn't have turned out if Grillo wasn't running. If abstention wasn't an option, I'd say the older, southern Italian voters (especially Sicilians) would have went with Silvio. The younger, urban and central Italian voters are clearly left leaning.

Monti voters might have been scared enough economically speaking to hold their nose and vote for Bersani but I think most would have still gone with Silvio.

[RogueBeaver]

Are there any English or French articles on the Renzi thing for those of us who don't know Italian?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there any English or French articles on the Renzi thing for those of us who don't know Italian?

Here are two from the NYT back in November:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/world/europe/an-italian-style-obama-on-the-political-trail.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/25/world/europe/stirring-up-stodgy-italy-with-his-political-style.html

[RogueBeaver]

No, I meant on the current negotiations. I was following Renzi's primary campaign in the last couple of weeks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think there would be yet. It's still a remote hypothesis.

Anyway, don't make too much of Grillo's refusal. Bersani isn't trying to court Grillo: he's trying to court M5S senators, who, especially since they aren't professional politicians, are certainly not nearly as disciplined as parliamentarians of other parties. If it's any indication, there were many comments on Grillo's blog that criticized his decision and urged the movement to work with Bersani. And after all he, only needs 16 of them (provided he can rely on the Monti guys).

[Franknburger]

In order not to clutter up this thread with issues that ultimately relate more to the German than the Italian election, I have continued my reporting on Steinbrück's 'clown' statement in the German elections thread. Anybody who is interested is invited to continue discussion there.

[mubar]

Berlusconi's supporters have the least justification to complain when their guy gets called names. On the other hand, Steinbrück insults clowns by comparing them to a criminal like Berlusconi.

[Franknburger]

As for Renzi... he's more moderate, I don't see how M5S would prefer him. Unless it's just to work his charm in negotiations?

My take is (italians here, please correct me if I am wrong) that Berlusconi, Monti and Bersani tried to run the campaign in a 1990's way, while Grillo and, ultimately, more than a quarter of the voters, wanted to bring to their attention that we are in the 21st century. In other words - this election was very much on style and generation, and much less on being right vs. moderate vs.-left.
As such, it should not so much be Renzi's positions, but his age and political style, which determine wheter MSS (and their voters) prefer him.

Btw: Amidst all concern about Italia's future governability and implications for the Euro-zone, I cannot help some admiration for voters' courage. Style-wise, Italy has always been trendsetting.

[Sol]

A little bit of an off -topic question, but why is Basilicata to the left of the rest of the South?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because the DC establishment there was mostly left-wing and is now in the PD.

[Keystone Phil]

I believe it's also the most impoverished area of the country. It's understandable that economic issues will trump social issues compared to neighboring regions.

[RogueBeaver]

Pretty intense negotiations till the new parliament convenes on March 10. Have they settled on speaker nominees for either Camera or Senate yet? IIRC Bersani offered M5S the Camera speakership since they're the largest single party, but hopefully he's not serious. Especially in a situation like this you don't want an amateur in that slot.

[Keystone Phil]

He is serious and if he isn't, it's incredibly inappropriate to suggest it half seriously (though I find it embarrassing that it was done at all) when he's telling Grillo, "enough with the jokes."

[RogueBeaver]

Have any of them served in elective office before? Oh well, PD will have the Senate speakership, which is more important here. Government formation process should be interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Grillo praised Napolitano over the Steinbrück controversy. Wow. Grillo praising a politician is really a big deal.

[SPQR]

Pretty intense negotiations till the new parliament convenes on March 10. Have they settled on speaker nominees for either Camera or Senate yet? IIRC Bersani offered M5S the Camera speakership since they're the largest single party, but hopefully he's not serious. Especially in a situation like this you don't want an amateur in that slot.

The Speaker of the Camera will really not count much.
The Camera has a big PD-SEL majority,so any controversial issue will be in the Senate.

[RogueBeaver]

From today's headlines, seems like while there's editorial and intraparty support for the Renzi idea, still a fairly remote possibility. Could be totally wrong of course.

[minionofmidas]

Do these Germans realize what they're doing when they say this stuff?

No.

[minionofmidas]

Back to results. Turnout was down five points... on a previous record low.

[SPQR]

From today's headlines, seems like while there's editorial and intraparty support for the Renzi idea, still a fairly remote possibility. Could be totally wrong of course.

Only Corriere della Sera wrote about it,and it was utter bullsh**t...also because Renzi would have no interest whatsoever in being the PM right now,in this mess.



Turnout was down 5 points,but you can't say that 75% is a low turnout...

[Keystone Phil]

Still can't understand how a country known for being so politically unstable and distrustful of government turns out in numbers like that, with 75% as a "low" turnout when the technically compulsory voting isn't actually enforced.

[minionofmidas]

It is by my estimate approximately three points lower than you could ever get in a general election in a country with a strong voting tradition and no artificial barriers to voting if people felt that the election could actually change anything.

It's still four points higher than Germany in 2009... and I see no reason to assume 2013 will be any better here. (It is lower than any other German general election in the 20th or 21st century!)

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, Bernhard Paul wrote an open letter. He feels insulted in his professional honor as a clown by being compared to Berlusconi.