Canadian by-elections, 2013

[lilTommy]

No one has brought up a vacancy in Nova Scotia? Manning MacDonald (L-Cape Breton South) resigned last week from the provincial legislature.  The riding has been Liberal since 1974 and will likely stay that way. Interestingly, the CCF held it in 1941. 

Being so close to a provincial election and with redistribution (correct me here, but it looks like CB will lose a riding and the district of Cape Breton South is now divided into Northside-Westmount, Sydney and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg, only Sydney will go NDP, the other two should be Liberal) there will be no by-election

The Tories lost an MP today with Edmonton-St.Albert MP moving to be an Indie

[DC Al Fine]

No one has brought up a vacancy in Nova Scotia? Manning MacDonald (L-Cape Breton South) resigned last week from the provincial legislature.  The riding has been Liberal since 1974 and will likely stay that way. Interestingly, the CCF held it in 1941. 

Being so close to a provincial election and with redistribution (correct me here, but it looks like CB will lose a riding and the district of Cape Breton South is now divided into Northside-Westmount, Sydney and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg, only Sydney will go NDP, the other two should be Liberal) there will be no by-election

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg & Northside Westmount both have sitting Tories running in them in the next election. The Liberals will probably get screwed out of a seat based on CB South getting divvied up between Tory & NDP areas.

[lilTommy]

No one has brought up a vacancy in Nova Scotia? Manning MacDonald (L-Cape Breton South) resigned last week from the provincial legislature.  The riding has been Liberal since 1974 and will likely stay that way. Interestingly, the CCF held it in 1941. 

Being so close to a provincial election and with redistribution (correct me here, but it looks like CB will lose a riding and the district of Cape Breton South is now divided into Northside-Westmount, Sydney and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg, only Sydney will go NDP, the other two should be Liberal) there will be no by-election

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg & Northside Westmount both have sitting Tories running in them in the next election. The Liberals will probably get screwed out of a seat based on CB South getting divvied up between Tory & NDP areas.

Thanks for the correction, i should have just look at who the sitting MLAs are
The Liberals might actually win only one riding then (Glace Bay), with Richmond now expanding into the Tory held CBwest to form the new CB-Richmond (this will probably be a battle esp if the two MLAs go after each other). anyway... thats another topic.

Any Bourassa candidates yet?

[DL]

I predict Bourassa won't vote until mid December

[RogueBeaver]

McGuinty will resign his Ottawa South seat tomorrow. Would Wynne pair it with the other 2 vacancies?

[toaster]

McGuinty will resign his Ottawa South seat tomorrow. Would Wynne pair it with the other 2 vacancies?

Ottawa South could be picked up by PC, especially without a McGuinty running.  I think the NDP will likely win Windsor, and the Libs will hold onto London.

[Hatman 🍁]

By-election in my riding!

[mileslunn]

Windsor will likely go NDP.  London West leans Liberal, but with the recent revelations on the gas plant deleting of e-mail I would wait until the next batch of polls come out to see if public opinion has moved.  I doubt the NDP now can win it.  They were only the mid 30s due to McGuinty's souring relation with public sector unions which have improved under Wynne never mind Wynne comes from the left of the party.  Had Paputello won then they would probably be doing better as she comes from the right of the party.  The Tories certainly could win there but far from a certainty.  Ottawa South will probably stay Liberal.  It seems being a political town, popular vote is rather consistent there over other places.  Both provincially and federally the Liberals always get at least 40% in this riding, but can never seem to crack the 50% mark whereas the Tories always seem to get in the 30-40% range regardless of their provincewide support.

[RogueBeaver]

Globe on Bourassa.

[Hatman 🍁]

Windsor will likely go NDP.  London West leans Liberal, but with the recent revelations on the gas plant deleting of e-mail I would wait until the next batch of polls come out to see if public opinion has moved.  I doubt the NDP now can win it.  They were only the mid 30s due to McGuinty's souring relation with public sector unions which have improved under Wynne never mind Wynne comes from the left of the party.  Had Paputello won then they would probably be doing better as she comes from the right of the party.  The Tories certainly could win there but far from a certainty.  Ottawa South will probably stay Liberal.  It seems being a political town, popular vote is rather consistent there over other places.  Both provincially and federally the Liberals always get at least 40% in this riding, but can never seem to crack the 50% mark whereas the Tories always seem to get in the 30-40% range regardless of their provincewide support.

Indeed, Ottawa South is a very stable riding. Not much swing going on here. Mind you, there are some swing voters. The NDP-Liberal swing between 2004 and 2006 always fascinated me. The NDP got 13% in both elections but from a very different electorate. Anyways, I think the NDP ceiling is about 20% which would be if they ran a really good campaign. The seat could be vulnerable. Polls showed the Tories ahead during the 2004 federal campaign. Dalton was unpopular at the time, hurting his brother. The Tory candidate was scandal prone though. The seat was open in 2004, so who knows what will happen now that it is open again?

If the Liberals run a nobody and the Tories run someone like city councillor Peter Hume, than the Tories could win. But, Hume knows better than to run provincially.

The NDP's best shot would be with someone like PS Trustee Bronwyn Funicello. Of course, she knows better too.

Diane Deans is the only political name that I can think of for the Liberals. She has been a city councillor for 19 years and has tried for the nomination before. I have to think the Liberals will try to stop her though.  They might want to run someone from the minority community. Someone Lebanese would be their best bet. It could alienate the upper class Alta Vista WASP(WASCs?) types though that have loved the McGuintys. 

[lilTommy]

London West, the NDP has stuck with the School board trustee trend and nominated Peggy Sattler (the policy director at Academica Group, a research consulting firm. She is a Thames Valley District School Board trustee and previously served two terms as board chair)
Last Poll i saw was May, with the OLP and PCs both at 34%, NDP 26%

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-liberals-tories-in-dead-heat-new-poll-shows-1.1295787

BUT, when you look at the regional number, for Southwest Ontario its PCs 35% NDP34% OLP 25%. with those numbers i wouldn't say the NDP "can't" win London West. The PCs have a better chance but, we can't count out the growing strength of the NDP in SWON

[Hatman 🍁]

This was reported 4 days ago, but I was not aware: Westside-Kelowna by-election is set for July 10.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, unbeknownst to me, the Cartright-L'Anse au Clair by-election in NL is NEXT WEEK (June 25).

[RogueBeaver]

Bob Rae will hold a news conference at 11 to announce his retirement. Wonder who the Liberals will choose in Toronto Centre.

[DL]

Bob Rae will hold a news conference at 11 to announce his retirement. Wonder who the Liberals will choose in Toronto Centre.

I think George Smitherman is looking for a job...if he wants the nomination he's probably unstoppable, but he would be bad for the federal Liberals to have in their caucus for a myriad of reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

True, and he might not be the only McGuinty alumnus seeking a federal seat given Pupatello's openness to the idea of running in Windsor and Trudeau's senior people like Butts and Telford also being McGuinty alumni. Rae's resignation takes effect July 1, BTW.

[DL]

I predict Harper will call byelections in Bourassa and TC on the same day and likely he will wait until November and set the date for mid-December.

[toaster]

Hoping a high caliber NDP candidate runs in TC.  Maybe David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton?  I can dream.

[lilTommy]

Hoping a high caliber NDP candidate runs in TC.  Maybe David Miller, Marilyn Churley, or Mike Layton?  I can dream.

I'd LOVE David Miller to run... but he just became the CEO (title i might have wrong) of WWF Canada so... 2015 at earliest for him. I can dream too

Layton is too vested in the municipal politics, to new there (2010) and his ward is in Trinity-Spadina. If a councillor was to run, i think Wong-Tam or McConnell would be better, since they both represent wards in that riding. Wong-Tam is new (2010) but McConnell has been around since the 90s i think.

Marilyn, from what i remember, is still a justice of the peace and SHOULD have run in 2010 in Beaches-East York again as she did in 06/08 but i believe she didn't because she was a justice.

But agreed, if the NDP are to win Toronto Centre, they need a very high profile candidate, especially since the riding at this moment still has Rosedale in the boundaries... that will change after redistribution though by the looks of things, meaning even if the NDP don't win this by-election, they have a much better shot at the "new boundary" Toronto Centre come 2015

[DL]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

[Smid]

But agreed, if the NDP are to win Toronto Centre, they need a very high profile candidate, especially since the riding at this moment still has Rosedale in the boundaries... that will change after redistribution though by the looks of things, meaning even if the NDP don't win this by-election, they have a much better shot at the "new boundary" Toronto Centre come 2015

Running on the current boundaries, and losing (but putting in a good effort), could be useful in being the front runner for NDP preselection for the next GE.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

[DC Al Fine]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

Zinck says he's running as an independent. May screw the NDP out of what should have been a safe seat.

[DL]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

Zinck says he's running as an independent. May screw the NDP out of what should have been a safe seat.

Would ANYONE vote for him?

[DC Al Fine]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

Zinck says he's running as an independent. May screw the NDP out of what should have been a safe seat.

Would ANYONE vote for him?

He'd get a few votes. The problem is that there's been such a massive swing to the Liberals that it wouldn't take much vote splitting to for the Liberals to win.