Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Consistent 7-9 point Liberal lead in Ottawa South. Complete polling FUBAR if that holds.

[DC Al Fine]

The real question of the night: How did Al Gretzky get 4% of the vote for the Freedom Party?

[MaxQue]

Consistent 7-9 point Liberal lead in Ottawa South. Complete polling FUBAR if that holds.

Ot it's just PC GOTV which is bad?

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison says most polls have been counted in Ottawa and that 7 point lead is holding. Cue umpteen rounds of Hudak leadership speculation- and the knives will come out at the review.

[RogueBeaver]

Consistent 7-9 point Liberal lead in Ottawa South. Complete polling FUBAR if that holds.

Ot it's just PC GOTV which is bad?

Perhaps. The PCs never led in Scarborough and were dropping in London, but no excuse for Ottawa.

[Kevinstat]

SG tightening up a bit.  35.5-30.1-29.4 Liberal-PC-NDP

[MaxQue]

Consistent 7-9 point Liberal lead in Ottawa South. Complete polling FUBAR if that holds.

Ot it's just PC GOTV which is bad?

Perhaps. The PCs never led in Scarborough and were dropping in London, but no excuse for Ottawa.

Well, you know me and you know my convinctions, so I won't complain is PC is looking bad. But, honestly, the issue is perhaps the polling. After Canada 2011, Alberta 2012, Quebec 2012, BC 2013... bad pollinng is really not out of the question.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Libs have a great GOTV campaign here. I saw them buzzing around my apartment building when I got home.

[RogueBeaver]

Max: We're talking a 25 point (!) difference, which applies to none of the others.

[MaxQue]

The Liberal "star" candidate in London bombed out. He is at 15%, now.

[Kevinstat]

Liberal lean in Ottawa South down to 6.0%.

[RogueBeaver]

Shouldn't Scarborough be called soon? 123/166 and Hunter leads by 6 points, with the other 2 tied at 30.

[Smid]

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

[Hatman 🍁]

Scarborough was called a while ago.

[MaxQue]

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

And I thought than To-C already had a candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

Fraser's lead down to 5 points with 115/234.

[Kevinstat]

Holiday only up by 3.8% in E-L with 175/244 in.

[RogueBeaver]

Last Forum poll had Holyday up 4. Liberal lead still at 5 but they're very confident of winning in Ottawa.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

And I thought than To-C already had a candidate.

Actually Giambrone's seat was Davenport. DOESNT ANYONE READ MY BLOG

[RogueBeaver]

Might as well call Ottawa, that 6-point lead isn't budging. Hatman: didn't you say that it would've returned to the Grits in a GE anyways?

[Smid]

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

Quite right. I was typing fast to keep up with the thread and didn't think long enough about it.

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

And I thought than To-C already had a candidate.

Actually Giambrone's seat was Davenport. DOESNT ANYONE READ MY BLOG

But those seats are taken, and it's still relatively close to the downtown. It's more that this sort of obvious personal vote may make TO-C winnable for the NDP.

[MaxQue]

So, probably NDP 2, LPO 2, PC 1.

[RogueBeaver]

CBC says advance votes have yet to be counted in Ottawa, but doubt that makes a difference...

[adma]

The real question of the night: How did Al Gretzky get 4% of the vote for the Freedom Party?

This may be controversial, but perhaps there are certain SW Ontario right-of-centres who're a bit antsy about voting for someone named "Ali Chahbar"--and Gretzky, as a former fed Con candidate, subtly played off that dynamic...

[Hatman 🍁]

Might as well call Ottawa, that 6-point lead isn't budging. Hatman: didn't you say that it would've returned to the Grits in a GE anyways?

Yes, I did.

You'd think I'd be happy with the NDP winning 2 seats, but I was really excited about the thought of turfing the Liberals here. Oh well.