Eastleigh By-Election

[afleitch]

With Chirs Huhne stepping down we have our first by-election in a genuine Lib Dem/Tory marginal. Huhne had a 7.2% majority over the Tory candidate in 2010. The Labour candidate polled 9.6%. Labour did however manage a respectable 20.6 in 2005 and polled 26.8% in 1997.

The last by-election here was in 1994 when the Lib Dem David Chidgey took the seat from the Conservatives. Labour came second and a certain perennial political clown, Nigel Farage stood for election. As did the esteemed Lord Sutch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently all by-elections in Eastleigh must have utterly hilarious causes.

[YL]

This should be quite interesting.

The Lib Dems have been doing well in local elections there; they even topped the poll in the Police Commissioner nonsense, and they're totally dominant on Eastleigh Borough Council.  So them holding the seat can't be written off, in spite of the embarrassing reason for the by-election and their poor national standing.

Labour have had a decent vote in the past (as afleitch said they came second in the 1994 by-election, ahead of the Tories, unlike what happened in that Parliament in Newbury or Christchurch) but were badly squeezed in 2010.  It'll be interesting to see whether they get some of that back.

UKIP will no doubt be having a big push, and perhaps thinking that if the Lib Dems and Tories both do relatively poorly, with Labour recovering from the 2010 squeeze, then the share needed to win might be quite low.

[afleitch]

Apparently all by-elections in Eastleigh must have utterly hilarious causes.

Chidgey was of course the 'Straight choice' for Eastleigh. Not sure if that was the last time that line was used.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, this is essentially one large swathe of dull-and-comfortable middle class Southampton suburbia (and includes the Rose Bowl). Saying that, the town of Eastleigh itself has a railway history and used to be more working class than it is now, while Hamble-le-Rice (essentially a yachting settlement) is properly posh. The LibDems are totally dominant here in local elections, which is weird these days but is the one thing that (presumably) gives them hope.

The constituency has shrunk in size a lot due to population growth, but it started life in the 1950s as a marginal Tory seat and turned - as slices of ever-more-middle class outer post-war suburbia tended to - into a safe one by the 1970s. It was then a seat with voting patterns as boring as the place was itself (large but not utterly vast majorities over the Alliance in 1983-1992 etc) until the bizarre death of Stephen Milligan in 1994. As Oscar Wilde said, you'd need a heart of stone not to laugh. This dark hilarity happened when the Major government was less popular than venereal disease and the result was a by-election humiliation in which the Tories crashed to third and the seat was lost to a LibDem with the mildly absurd name of name of 'David Chidgey' who won by miles. Chidgey nearly lost in 1997 as the seat briefly looked a bit three-way-marginal-ish (it was that kind of year), but held on a tad more comfortably in 2001. On his retirement in 2005, Chris 'The Fringe' Vrrrrooooom won by a tiny margin, which he increased to something respectable (though not large) in 2010. And we all know what happened next.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Any chance that Farage will try his luck here again?

[You kip if you want to...]

We Labour hacks will have a fun time seeing the government tear itself to shreds here. Can't wait.

Being realistic, it'll be a LibDem hold, but both coalition parties will be down quite a bit. Labour'll be up a few points, but UKIP'll surge (maybe even finish in 3rd, maybe not).

Lab-Lib tactical voting should be the thing to watch here for those wanting it to tell a story about 2015. Wait for Clegg to swing hard-left for the next few weeks, making his bizarre behaviour since the start of the year look okay.

And the irony here will be that it could be FPTP and UKIP which saves the LibDem's skin.

[Silent Hunter]

Tory gain, I'd say.

[joevsimp]

tory gain, Labour will want to grab as many Lib Dem votes as possible and avoid getting beaten by UKIP, as well as embarrass Clegg

[Captain Sisko]

Yeah, interesting that the Lib Dems *gained* seats in a year like 2012 here.

In Wikipedia-ing the results for that, I found out that Eastleigh was twinned with Temple Terrace, FL. That's amusing.

[YL]

Any chance that Farage will try his luck here again?

He apparently told Channel 4 News that he was thinking "very hard" about standing.

[adma]

Any chance that Farage will try his luck here again?

Y'know, in a funny way, I *can* see this being his "Bradford West".  (Well, the same suburban contrarianism that allowed it to remain Lib Dem for so long)

[DC Al Fine]

Tory gain unless UKIP has a surprisingly good showing.

[YL]

Farage has an article on the Torygraph website saying he's not standing.  So presumably UKIP don't think they can win...

[You kip if you want to...]

Sigh of relief through CCHQ.

[countydurhamboy]

I'd be surprised if the Liberals lost this. Strong local base and as long they pick a strong local candidate, which they will, they will hold this easily. Does anyone have the local results btw?

[Leftbehind]

LEAP from resident Jesus-impersonator Andrew Teale.

[You kip if you want to...]

Who's more of a liability to their side here, Nick or Dave? This'll be all about the Labour tactical voters since Farage isn't going for it.

[countydurhamboy]

LEAP from resident Jesus-impersonator Andrew Teale.

Thanks, that's a better site than I could have hoped for   Very impressive LD performance, and a strong ukip vote. Makes me more sure of a LD hold

Who's more of a liability to their side here, Nick or Dave? This'll be all about the Labour tactical voters since Farage isn't going for it.

I think losses in the LD vote to labour, may well be less than tory losses to ukip and Labour. This is the kind of place I would expect Clegg to be at his least unpopular. There will be some personal vote if the LD's put up a local councillor. Dave meanwhile, will be praying for a miracle, Fox and friends will rip him to shreds if the Tories lose.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But have a look at 2010: they had a much larger lead in the borough elections than Huhne did in the big ticket fight.

[minionofmidas]

What do you mean, "impersonator"?

Anyways, the LDs to come first or second, Labour third or fourth, UKIP anywhere from second to fourth, Tories anywhere from first to fourth. If this not very daring prediction be wrong I'll attempt to eat my infraction points.

[ObserverIE]

But have a look at 2010: they had a much larger lead in the borough elections than Huhne did in the big ticket fight.

Might that suggest that Huhne was not much of an asset locally, and may not, in consequence, be much of a loss?

Looking at the local election figures, if they can't hold on here in a by-election they won't hold on anywhere.

[You kip if you want to...]

But have a look at 2010: they had a much larger lead in the borough elections than Huhne did in the big ticket fight.

Might that suggest that Huhne was not much of an asset locally, and may not, in consequence, be much of a loss?

Looking at the local election figures, if they can't hold on here in a by-election they won't hold on anywhere.

Or there's a section of voters in Eastleigh who trust the Liberals with the council, but want to vote for a party which is actually relevant when they have to pick a government.

[You kip if you want to...]

28th February.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/06/if-the-betting-markets-have-got-eastleigh-right-then-the-tories-are-heading-for-a-senstational-by-election-victory/

[ObserverIE]

28th February.

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/02/06/if-the-betting-markets-have-got-eastleigh-right-then-the-tories-are-heading-for-a-senstational-by-election-victory/

Well, if that's what ToryFrothing PoliticalBetting thinks, the Lib Dems are definitely home and hosed.