French legislative by-elections (14th Legislature)

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anybody cares, here's my blog post on the matter: http://welections.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/lot-et-garonne-3-by-election/

Complete with a profile, graphs, maps and incessant blabbering.

Read it.

Any yeah, it's pretty depressing indeed.

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There was yet another cantonal by-election in Brignoles (Var). The story goes as follows: the FN guy won the canton by 7 votes against the PCF incumbent in 2011, the election was invalidated and the PCF regained the seat from the FN by 13 votes in a 2012 by-election and said by-election was obviously invalidated.

Brignoles is a fairly important regional town located north of Toulon/Hyeres. There used to be bauxite mines in the whole area until the 1980s, but they closed down and the town is basically some low income regional centre/exurban commuterbelt with a population largely made up of service employees, blue-collar workers and retirees. It is old FN land, Panzerdaddy already won 22% (1995) and 27% (2002), and Panzergirl won 28% in 2012 against 29% for Sarko, 20.5% for Flanby and 11% for Melenchon. While the PS is weak here, there is still a PCF tradition - particularly in Tourves, an old mining village where Melenchon still won 16%.

The 2011-2012 FN general councillor, Jean-Paul Dispard, did not win the FN nomination so he ran for Carl Lang's splinter PdF. The PS did not run a candidate. Claude Gilardo, the PCF mayor of Brignoles and CG between 1998 and 2011 and since 2012, did not run.

Turnout down some from 2012 (2012% in parentheses).

Laurent Lopez (FN) 40.4% (34.9%)
Catherine Delzers (UMP) 20.8% (25.4%)
Laurent Carratala (PCF-PS) 14.6% (39.6%)
Jean-Paul Dispard (PdF) 9.1%
Magda Igyarto-Arnoult (EELV-local PS) 8.9%
Christian Proust (UDI) 6.3%

The left, UDI and PdF have endorsed the UMP, but I doubt this will stop the Panzerdivision from winning next week.

[big bad fab]

"Ni droite, ni gauche": there it is...

The UMP has probably lost a bit towards the PdF.
But the left, well,.... I know some have probably abstained and many former non-voters have voted for the FN. But that can't be the whole story: many, many popular votes for the FN.

[Hash]

Brignoles (83) runoff

Laurent Lopez (FN) 53.9%
Catherine Delzers (UMP) 46.1%

Turnout: +3076 votes
Valid votes: +2604
FN: +2313
UMP: +2904

[Zanas]

France is getting horribler and horribler... (I know that's not a word)

[RogueBeaver]

France is getting horribler and horribler... (I know that's not a word)

Hasn't FN won here before?

[Hash]

France is getting horribler and horribler... (I know that's not a word)

Hasn't FN won here before?

Yes, the FN won the 2011 cantonal election and barely lost the 2012 by-election. I don't see why everybody is making such a big deal of the FN win here; it certainly isn't good news for the left and it's nice for the FN, but this isn't like the FN just came out of nowhere to win.

[Foucaulf]

Yes, the FN won the 2011 cantonal election and barely lost the 2012 by-election. I don't see why everybody is making such a big deal of the FN win here; it certainly isn't good news for the left and it's nice for the FN, but this isn't like the FN just came out of nowhere to win.

There's a lot of manufactured outrage, isn't there? Government tried to push the "front républicain" option hard to make them seem more sensible than the UMP (with its Fillon flip-flopping). But that would work only if the FN lost; now both left and right are picking at the remains.

[Hash]

There was a by-election in the Nord's 21st constituency, vacated by Jean-Louis Borloo. The seat is centered around Valenciennes and is mostly located in the mining basin. Valenciennes' economy was historically based around mining, textile and steel, although there were almost no mines and workers' neighborhoods on the commune's territory. It has weathered de-industrialization better than most, with a shift towards a tertiary industry (auto-industry, technologies, university); but it is still fairly poor and has high unemployment (nearly 19% in the 2010 census). The rest of the constituency includes blue-collar communities (Onnaing, with a Toyota factory) and old mining towns (Marly, Onnaing, Wallers, Quiévrechain, Condé-sur-l'Escaut); with some more affluent suburban or 'rural' towns outside the old mining basin.

Politically, the region has shifted to the right, although Valenciennes has always been to the right of its surroundings - it has had right-wing mayors since 1947, and right-wing presidential candidates have beaten their PS opponents in recent presidential elections in Valenciennes (55% for Chirac in 1995, 57.8% for Sarkozy in 2007, 51.8% for Sarkozy in 2012) and the neighboring commune of Saint-Saulve (a middle-class suburb, 52.5% for Sarkozy in 2012). The left - particularly the PCF - has historically been dominant in the working-class and old mining communities (all cantons wholly or partially located within the constituency still have PCF CGs, except for Anzin which has a PS CG). Hollande won 52.2% in the constituency in May 2012, pushed by his strength in a few working-class communes (especially Marly, Onnaing, Quiévrechain and Condé-sur-l'Escaut where he won at least 57% in each) while the right dominated Valenciennes and the affluent southern communes of the canton of Valenciennes-Est. That being said, Jospin had won 53.4% here in 1995, with significantly stronger results in the old mining basin towns. Hue (1995, 15.3%) also did better than Mélenchon (2012, 13.7%), following a trend observed in other Communist strongholds across industrial France in 2012. The FN has been strong here, with 20.6% for Panzerdaddy in 2002 and 22.7% for Panzergirl; the far-right's support has been weaker in Valenciennes proper (18.7% in 2002 and 2012) than in the working-class parts (Condé-sur-l'Escaut: 24% in 1995, 26% in 2002 and 2012; Onnaing: 26% in 2012; even stronger in some other poor old mining towns without industries in their territory today).

Valenciennes has been the stronghold of Jean-Louis Borloo since 1989, when he was first elected mayor in a landslide, as an independent non-politician candidate locally famous as the owner of the popular local football club. Borloo did a very good job as mayor, doing much to boost the troubled city's economy and regenerate it through cultural activities, lobbying for industries (notably auto plants) and urban renewal projects. The city's population, which declined 1968 and 1990, has increased again since that date. In 1992, he ran an independent list in the regional elections which won 12.5% in the Nord and he was elected deputy in 1993, defeating PCF incumbent Fabien Thiémé. He originally sat in the heterogeneous République et liberté group in the NatAss from 1993 to 1997, but he moved towards the UDF in 1997. Borloo was consistently reelected in 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 - each time against Thiémé, who has remained in politics as CG of Valenciennes-Est and mayor of Marly. In 1997, he won only 52.8% in the runoff, but in 2002 he won 63.9% in the runoff and won by the first round in 2007. Borloo was mayor of Valenciennes until 2002, when he stepped down (in favour of Dominique Riquet, who has been in the EP since 2009) to enter Chirac's government, where he served as junior minister for urban affairs (2002-2004) and minister for employment and social cohesion (2004-2007), notably famous for his (mildly successful) work on social housing and economic development in underprivileged urban neighborhoods (ZUS). It was during this time that he gained in national stature, becoming co-president of the Radical Party and receiving a major promotion to the finance/employment portfolio under the Fillon I government, later as environment minister (he lost the finance portfolio after the 2007 legislative elections, being held responsible by the UMP for the TVA sociale kerfuffle and underperformance in the runoff as a result thereof). He left cabinet in 2010 (after being passed over for Matignon, although from Sarkoleaks it would appear as if Sarko never intended to nominate him) and broke off from the UMP to create the proto-UDI 'ARES' stillborn union of the centre-right. Borloo is a fairly talented and popular politician, although his potential national career has been frustrated by his own messiness (he lacks the coherence, determination, my-way-or-the-highway and Machiavellian skill which makes most good politicians) and alleged penchant for the bottle (Les Guignols deride him as a total alcoholic). Locally, though, the Borloo-UDI has built up a very strong base. In the EP elections, the UDI/Alternative list (led by Riquet) won Valenciennes (35.5% vs 24.2% for the FN) and placed second (25.9%) behind the FN (33%) but ahead of the UMP (9.3%) and the left (PS 7.8%, FG 7.7%, EELV 5.6%, ND 1.7%) in the constituency as a whole. On low turnout (below 35%), the FN won over 40% in Onnaing and Quiévrechain and 38% in Condé-sur-l'Escaut.

Borloo resigned and retired from politics shortly after the municipal elections for health reasons. His anointed successor was the UDI mayor of Valenciennes, Laurent Degallaix, who was also supported by the UMP (Cécile Gallez, the UMP mayor of Saint-Saulve since 1997 and Borloo's suppléante since 2002, was again listed as suppléante). Fabien Thiémé, the PCF candidate in every legislative election since 1988 and former deputy (1988-1993) did not run again. In 2012, the PS had supported a EELV candidate, but both parties ran their own candidates this year.

Turnout was 25.8% (2012 results)

Laurent Degallaix (UDI, mayor of Valenciennes and Borloo's dauphin) 47.02% (42.99%)
Jean-Luc François Laurent (FN) 18.69% (14.08%)
Patrick Kolebacki (FG) 10.27% (24.33%)
Didier Legrand (Nous Citoyens, Valenciennes right-wing opposition municipal councillor and opponent of Degallaix) 10.18%
Alexandre Raszka (PS) 7.12%
Frédéric Bigot (EELV) 3.56% (16.71% w/ PS)
Eric Pecqueur (LO) 1.72% (0.66%)
Dominique Slabolepsky (PdF, ex-FN) 1.14%
Yannick Hourdiau (Parti Pirate) 0.3% (0.27%)

LO is the only party to gain votes compared to 2012. In Valenciennes proper, the UDI won 52.7% against 18.5% for Didier Legrand (whose dissident DVD list won 22.6% in the municipal runoff in March).

Add: there was also a legislative by-election in Haute-Garonne (UMP held easily against PS in the runoff; vacated by Jean-Luc Moudenc, elected mayor of Toulouse) and the first round in Polynesia-1 (I have no clue how politics work over there, but the candidate of the party [Tahoeraa Huiraatira] of the incumbent deputy is far ahead of the nationalists and will win easily in the runoff). There's also one due in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, because the suppléante of the PRG incumbent named to cabinet did not want to take the seat; Annick Girardin, the PRG deputy who is now secretary of state for development and La Francophonie, is running). Girardin gained the seat in 2007 (from UMP, ex-UDF incumbent Gérard Grignon, first elected in 1986), but was reelected with over 65% in the first round in 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lolps

[Hash]

Another by-election first round today: Aube's 3rd constituency, vacated by François Baroin (UMP), now senator.

The constituency includes the (old) cantons of La Chapelle-Saint-Luc, Marcilly-le-Hayer, Méry-sur-Seine, Nogent-sur-Seine, Romilly-sur-Seine-1, Romilly-sur-Seine-2, Sainte-Savine, Troyes-3, Troyes-4 and Villenauxe-la-Grande. In other words, the western half of the department of the Aube, from the border with Île-de-France to Troyes, taking in parts of downtown Troyes and the northwest of the city (the city is split between the department's three constituencies).

The constituency is a right-wing stronghold, although it is usually the most left-leaning this conservative department's three seats: Flanby won 46.86% in the second round here in 2012. Left-wing support stems from two cities: Romilly-sur-Seine and La Chapelle-Saint-Luc, where Flanby won 58.4% and 61.2% respectively. Romilly-sur-Seine is an old blue-collar cité cheminote, which has an old PCF tradition (the city itself was governed by the PCF from 1949 to 1989 and the canton covering much of the city itself has been held by the PCF since its creation in 1973). La Chapelle-Saint-Luc is a low-income suburb of Troyes, where 57% live in a HLM and 63% in a ZUS. The rest of the constituency, outside of Troyes, is largely made up of towns and villages - your typical nucleated settlements in an openfield setting. Some of the westernmost parts of the constituency in the cantons of Nogent-sur-Seine and Villenauxe-la-Grande could perhaps be considered as Paris exurbs (périurbain lointain), although most of the smaller villages and towns in the constituency find themselves drawn to Troyes, Romilly-sur-Seine, Nogent-sur-Seine or Sens (Yonne). One familiar with French politics would correctly guess that this is a favourable environment for the FN, which is indeed quite strong here. Panzergirl won 23.77% here in 2012, although that was her weakest result of the Aube's three seats. She was unsurprisingly weak in Troyes, La Chapelle-Saint-Luc and middle-class suburban Sainte-Savine (she won about 19.5% in all three communes), but far stronger in the non-urban cantons - 28.4% in Romilly-sur-Seine-2, 29.7% in Villenauxe-la-Grande, 28% in Nogent-sur-Seine, 26.9% in Marcilly-le-Hayer. She won 24.7% in Romilly-sur-Seine proper.

Deputies:
Bernard Laurent (MRP) 1958-1962
Jean Durlot (UNR-UDT) 1962-1967
Paul Granet (UDR/UDF) 1967-1981
Michel Cartelet (PS) 1981-1986, 1988-1993
François Baroin (RPR/UMP) 1993-2014

Past results:
2012-R1: Baroin (UMP) 41.42%, Joly (PS) 28.79%, Cazard (FN) 17.79%, Mathieu (FG) 7.18%, Carsenti (MoDem) 1.51%, others etc.
2012-R2: Baroin (UMP) 56.45%, Joly (PS) 43.55%
2007-R1: Baroin (UMP) 55.71%, Girardin (PS) 19.08%, Viala (FN) 7.53%, Mathieu (PCF) 6.21%, Delplanque (VEC) 3.15%, others etc.
2002-R1: Baroin (UMP) 49.03%, Delplanque (VEC) 19.02%, Maintenant (FN) 17.63%, Triché (PCF) 6.66%, Bissey (LO) 2.21%, others etc.
2002-R2: Baroin (UMP) 62.98%, Delplanque (VEC) 37.02%

2012 Pres: Sarko 27.56%, Flanby 25.9%, Panzergirl 23.77%, Mélenchon 9.28%, Bayrou 8.09%, NDA 2.19% >> Sarko 53.14% - Flanby 46.86%
2007 Pres: Sarko 33.25%, Ségo 21.24%, Bayrou 16.22%, Panzerdaddy 15.29%, Besancenot 3.96% >> Sarko 58.8% - Ségo 41.2%
2002 Pres: Panzerdaddy 21.76%, Chirac 19.87%, Jospin 14.23%, Bayrou 6.17%, Arlette 5.84%, Chevènement 5.1% etc >> Chirac 76.64%

2014 EP: FN 30.64%, UMP 23.84%, PS 11.58%, UDI-MoDem 8.27%, FG 6.39%, EELV 4.92%, DLR 4.52%

And, so, the results today:

Registered: 65,758
Turnout: 16,195 (24.63%)
White/invalid: 440
Valid: 15,755

Gérard Menuel (UMP-UDI, Baroin's suppléant since 93) 40.76% (-0.66%)
Bruno Subtil (FN, regional councillor and local party boss) 27.64% (+9.85%)
Olivier Girardin (PS-PRG, PS mayor of La Chapelle-Saint-Luc) 14.69% (-14.1%)
Pierre Mathieu (FG, regional councillor) 7.46% (+0.28%)
Maxime Beaulieu (EELV) 4.47%
Dominique Deharbe (Nouvelle Donne) 2.49%
Nelly Collot-Touzé (PCD) 2%
Nicolas Rousseaux (DVD) 0.48%

sigh

[Hash]

Results today:

Registered: 65,760
Turnout: 17,854 (27.15%)
Valid: 16,486

Gérard Menuel (UMP-UDI) 63.85%
Bruno Subtil (FN) 36.15%

[Hash]

Important by-election today in Pierre Moscovici's old seat, the Doubs' 4th:

Sophie Montel (FN) 32.6%
Frédéric Barbier (PS) 28.85%
Charles Demouge (UMP) 26.54%
Vincent Adami (FG-PCF-PG-NPA-MRC) 3.66%
Bernard Lachambre (EELV) 3.11%
Michel Treppo (LO) 1.57%
Alde Vinci (PdF) 1.23%
Jean-Claude Bonnot (Fédéraliste) 0.59%
Yannick Hervé (UPR) 0.57%
Ismaël Boudjekada (Indépendant) 0.53%
Antonio Sanchez (Communistes) 0.49%
Marc O (Indépendant) 0.16%
Nicolas ROUSSEAUX (Indépendant) 0.1%

Turnout: 39.56%

[Barnes]

Do you think the UMP candidate will withdraw in favor of the Fascist?

[MaxQue]

Do you think the UMP candidate will withdraw in favor of the Fascist?

You need being in the top two or having at least 12.5% of all registered voters to be qualified for the 2nd round, so the UMP candidate isn't qualified at all. It will by FN vs. PS.

And, no, UMP won't support FN, I think. Either PS or no one. They said they need 48 hours to think (it will be obviously decided at the national level, by Sarkozy and co.)

[Barnes]

Do you think the UMP candidate will withdraw in favor of the Fascist?

You need being in the top two or having at least 12.5% of all registered voters to be qualified for the 2nd round, so the UMP candidate isn't qualified at all. It will by FN vs. PS.

And, no, UMP won't support FN, I think. Either PS or no one. They said they need 48 hours to think (it will be obviously decided at the national level, by Sarkozy and co.)

Ah, my mistake.  I immediately assumed the percentages in the post were dealing with the percent of registered voters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Genuine good news for PS or a mere fluke?

[swl]

First election since Sarkozy's comeback, first defeat.

[swl]

For comparison:

2012 (legislative election) turnout 60.50%
Moscovici (PS) 40.81%
Montel (FN) 23.87%
Demouge (UMP) 23.21%

2014 (European election) turnout 43.39%
FN 35.08%
UMP 18.99%
PS 15.16%

2nd round will be tight.

[Hash]

Genuine good news for PS or a mere fluke?

Probably a mix of the constituency being generally poor ground for the UMP to begin with, the possibility of a mini-upswing in the PS' fortunes post-Charlie Hebdo and (this is probably the bigger factor) the UMP's candidate getting a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease. When asked about the FN's usual racist and Islamophobic campaign stuff, he said that he didn't have a problem with immigrants but that "Ce sont les bons petits blonds qui m’emmerdent" ('good little blonds are the ones who piss me off'), which is obviously not the smartest thing to say when you're a politician in France.

[politicus]

Genuine good news for PS or a mere fluke?

Probably a mix of the constituency being generally poor ground for the UMP to begin with, the possibility of a mini-upswing in the PS' fortunes post-Charlie Hebdo and (this is probably the bigger factor) the UMP's candidate getting a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease. When asked about the FN's usual racist and Islamophobic campaign stuff, he said that he didn't have a problem with immigrants but that "Ce sont les bons petits blonds qui m’emmerdent" ('good little blonds are the ones who piss me off'), which is obviously not the smartest thing to say when you're a politician in France.

wtf...

What did that refer to?

[Hash]

Genuine good news for PS or a mere fluke?

Probably a mix of the constituency being generally poor ground for the UMP to begin with, the possibility of a mini-upswing in the PS' fortunes post-Charlie Hebdo and (this is probably the bigger factor) the UMP's candidate getting a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease. When asked about the FN's usual racist and Islamophobic campaign stuff, he said that he didn't have a problem with immigrants but that "Ce sont les bons petits blonds qui m’emmerdent" ('good little blonds are the ones who piss me off'), which is obviously not the smartest thing to say when you're a politician in France.

wtf...

What did that refer to?

I'm not sure what prompted it, but I think it was a very dumb and terribly ill-advised way of saying that he doesn't think immigrants are a problem and that he is more bothered with the run-of-the-mill white French kids. At any rate, it's obvious this guy isn't the brightest bulb.

[Hash]

For anybody who's interested, a brief backgrounder on the constituency:



The 4th constituency of the Doubs consists of the primarily industrial and working-class regions in the Pays de Montbéliard (but not including the city itself) in the eastern, densely populated region of the Doubs département abutting on the Territoire-de-Belfort. It includes Sochaux, famously home to the Peugeot car factories (PSA Peugeot Citroën), and other industrial towns including Hérimoncourt, Audincourt, Valentigney, Grand-Charmont and Pont-de-Roide.

This industrial region is predominantly poor, unemployment is very high (about 23% in Sochaux), employment is very predominantly blue-collar (ouvriers make up over 40% of the active population in Sochaux, Hérimoncourt, Valentigney, Audincourt), education levels are low and the population has been declining for decades.

Unsurprisingly, the industrial cities - Sochaux, Hérimoncourt, Audincourt particularly - have been left-leaning for quite some time, with the Socialists scoring well in the industrial basin as early as 1919 and the PCF scoring well as early as 1924. While the PCF has some ancient strength in Audincourt, Sochaux and Hérimoncourt, that's mostly a thing of the past and the PCF has not been a major factor in elections here since the 1980s. Mélenchon won 11% in Sochaux and Hue won only 6% in 1995. Instead, the main rival to the PS in most industrial centres for the past 20 years or so has been the FN, a strong presence here since the 1990s. In 1995, Panzerdaddy won 19%, then 25.8% in 2002 and retained a strong 17.5% even in 2007. In 2012, Panzergirl won 26.6% in the constituency, a close second behind Flanby (28.5%) and far ahead of Poison Dwarf (22%). The FN has been particularly strong in Sochaux since 1995, with Panzerdaddy winning 31% in 2002 and Panzergirl winning 28%. Comparing 1995 to 2012, the FN's appeal in the constituency, following the national trends, has been 'ruralized' - in 1995, Panzerdaddy's support was very much concentrated, comparatively, in the industrial towns such as Audincourt (22%/25% in 2002), Hérimoncourt (20%/28% in 2002) and Étupes (20%/26% in 2002); in 2012, while Panzergirl did quite well in those places (28% in Sochaux, 30% in Hérimoncourt, 23% in Audincourt/Valentigney), in some cases she dropped off from her father's 2002 results, and her support was even stronger in smaller unremarkable villages, where she placed first. Case in point, her two best cantons, with 29% of the vote, were the more rural-ish cantons of Pont-de-Roide and Hérimoncourt. The same patterns were repeated in 2014, although obviously the FN did incredibly well everywhere - 40% in Hérimoncourt, 37% in Sochaux, 33% in Audincourt etc.

The current constituency fell to the right only twice, in the 1993 and 2002 'blue wave' elections - by a very narrow margin in 2002. Moscovici, who won the seat from the RPR in 1997, was defeated in 2002 but retook the seat by a very narrow margin in 2007 against the UMP incumbent. Prior to the 1986 redistricting, the region was included in the much larger 2nd constituency, centered around Montbéliard, which was represented by Socialists from 1967 to 1986 (the UNR won it in 1958 and 1962). Flanby won 51.3% in the runoff in this seat, up from Ségo's 46.6% in 2007 but unsurprisingly down from Jospin's 54.8% in 1995 and Mitterrand's 61.6% in 1988. Geographically, Flanby did best in the industrial towns of Grand-Charmont (63%), Audincourt (60%), Sochaux (58%), Valentigney (58%), Hérimoncourt (53%) and Pont-de-Roide (52%); Sarkozy won in Étupes, an old industrial town which is slightly more middle-class suburbanish today (51%) and in most rural villages. In the first round, Sarkozy polled poor thirds in industrial Sochaux, Hérimoncourt, Audincourt etc (below 20%). In Sochaux, Président Bling-Bling shed nearly 10% from his 2007 result (a strong 26%) in the town. Moscovici's victory in June was, naturally, way more decisive in a triangulaire with the FN and UMP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

UMP's political bureau officially endorsed the "ni-ni" strategy (meaning that it won't endorse the PS nor the FN candidate), but the vote was surprisingly close, 22-19.

[Hash]

UMP's political bureau officially endorsed the "ni-ni" strategy (meaning that it won't endorse the PS nor the FN candidate), but the vote was surprisingly close, 22-19.

According to Le Monde, 22 backed the official ni-ni while 19 backed the idea of making no official endorsement but showing more willingness to fight the FN, a position backed by NKM and Sarko. Only Juppé seems to be publicly endorsing the PS here, although NKM implicitly said likewise.