French legislative by-elections (14th Legislature)

[Hash]

Two more legislative elections from June have been cancelled, so there will be two more legislative by-elections in the next few weeks (no dates set).

Oise 2nd

Jean-François Mancel (UMP)* 33.36%
Sylvie Houssin (PS) 30.50%
Florence Italiani (FN) 23.23%
Pierre Ripart (FG) 5.25%
Sandrine Makarewicz (MoDem-CPF) 2.45%
Annie Fouet (PDF) 1.15%
Amandine Herbaut (MEI) 1.15%
Guillaume Nolin (DLR) 0.95%
Fabienne Dourlat (AEI) 0.82%
Renée Potchtovik (LO) 0.73%
Catherine Mery (NPA) 0.41%

Jean-François Mancel (UMP)* 38.97%
Sylvie Houssin (PS) 38.85%
Florence Italiani (FN) 22.18%

This constituency includes the west of the Oise department and the southwest canton of Beauvais, the main regional city. It includes the cantons of Grandvilliers, Fromerie, Songeons, Le Coudray-Saint-Germer, Auneuil, Beauvais SO, Noailles and Chaumont-en-Vexin. From a natural regions standpoint, the constituency doesn't make much sense. It includes parts of four natural regions which run "horizontally" along rivers from the English Channel rather than 'vertically' like the constituency does. The north is part of the Plateau Picard, the cantons of Auneuil, Songeons and Beauvais SO are part of the Bray, the cantons of Coudray-Saint-Germer and parts of Noailles are in the Thelle/Thérain valley and the south is part of the French Vexin.

The simplistic way of describing constituencies like this one is 'rural', but this is much more a exurban/small town constituency rather than a purely rural area. With the exception of the two northernmost cantons, the constituency is an exurban/small town patchwork economically and socially tied to Beauvais and/or Paris. It is also, traditionally, a working-class area with small industrial centres or small industries (mostly dead by now, of course). Politically, with the rest of the department, the constituency has shifted heavily to the right/far-right. Hollande did about 4% worse than Jospin had done in 1995 (remembering that Hollande did about 4% better nationally). The region is slightly less industrialized than other parts of the department, so the PCF was never as strong as in other regions (but still very strong) and there was Radical strength in some more agrarian parts of the constituency (Songeons).

Sarko won 56.1% in the constituency last May, winning every canton except Beauvais SO (Hollande took 53.4% thanks to his strength in Beauvais itself, the canton includes a big ZUS). In the first round, with 27.9%, Marine placed first with Sarko very close behind (27.6%) and Hollande further back (22.1%). The most left-wing towns outside Beauvais are now Sérifontaine, a PCF stronghold near Gisors (Eure) with a big metal industry (métallurgie) and Feuquières, a glass working town in the north of the constituency (extension of the Glass Valley/Bresle industrial valley). And then again, Hollande won only 53.6% in the former and 55.8% in the latter (Jospin had won about 60% in both towns in 1995). Old remnants of leftie strength sometimes prop up in towns such as Hermes (old PCF cité cheminote, 48.7% Holllande) from time to time.

Marine Le Pen/Marion/Panzergirl did really well in the constituency, she scored some very impressive numbers which were higher than her father's 2002 and 1995 results in constituencies like this one across eastern/northern France: poor, low education, middle-aged, fairly isolated small towns (no large cities outside Beauvais, the largest has just 3000 people) and marginalized small towns/exurbs which are pulled to the large cities (few surviving local industries). The foreign population is low (3%) but because many of the inhabitants in those areas tend to commute to large cities and interact/confront large immigrant populations there, the FN's rhetoric on immigration is powerful here.

Her best cantons were the two northernmost cantons, where she won 34% and 32% respectively. This is the least suburban/exurban part of the canton, but the local industries are all dead and people are forced to commute to mid-sized towns for jobs (assuming they're not unemployed). It's the poorest part of the constituency. But she also won 31% in the cantons of Noailles and Le-Coudray-Saint-Germer - including 38% in Hermes. Her worst results were in Beauvais SO (20.7% - not too surprising considering that part of Beauvais has a sizable foreign population) and the canton of Chaumont-en-Vexin (24%), which includes some rather affluent and well-educated Paris outer suburbs. The FN vote has jumped around quite a bit since 1995, when Panzerdaddy had done best in more rural/small town conservative areas and quite poorly in left-leaning small industrial centres (where he gained in 2002).

The constituency has been held by the right since its creation in 1988, with the exception of 1997 when the PS' Béatrice Marre defeated the right thanks to a triangulaire with the FN (42.8-39.3-18). Logically, the UMP regained the seat in 2002 with 55% in the runoff and held it in 2007 with a reduced majority (52.8%). The UMP won the 2012 triangulaire by only 63 votes.

The UMP incumbent here since 1978 (save for 81-86, 97-02) is Jean-François Mancel, who is the CG for Noailles and was president of the CG between 1985 and 2004. He's your standard-fare right-winger for this kind of area, though with two twists - in 1998, he got in trouble for negotiating electoral alliances at the cantonal and regional level with the FN; in 2011 he was one of the few on the right to vote for gay marriage (then in a private members' bill). He's a copéiste.

What to expect? Probably the same candidates, low turnout meaning the FN does not qualify for the runoff (unless the PS vote tanks and the FN places second) and Mancel reelected with a big majority.

Deputies
old 5th constituency (pre-1986)
François Benard (UNR) 1958-1978
Jean-François Mancel (RPR) 1978-1981
Guy Vadepied (PS) 1981-1986

Jean-François Mancel (RPR) 1988-1997
Béatrice Marre (PS) 1997-2002
Jean-François Mancel (UMP) 2002-

Past presidential results
2012: Sarko 56.1% vs Flanby 43.9%
R1: LP 27.9%, Sarko 27.6%, Flanby 22.1%, Mélenchon 9%, Bayrou 7.4%, NDA 2%
2007: Sarko 60.7% vs Sego 39.3%
R1: Sarko 33.4%, Sego 19.3%, LP 16.5%, Bayrou 15.2%, Besancenot 4.7%, Villiers 2.9%, Arlette 2.1%
2002: Chirac 74.1% vs Le Pen 25.9%
R1: LP 23.2%, Chirac 19.1%, Jospin 12.5%, Arlette 6.9%, Bayrou 5.8%, Besancenot 4.5%, Saint-Josse 4.6%, Chevènement 4.4%, Mamère 4.2%, Madelin 3.7%, Mégret 3.3%, Hue 2.8%
1995: Chirac 52.5% vs Jospin 47.5%
R1: Chirac 21.5%, Jospin 19.7%, LP 19.3%, Balladur 16.4%, Hue 8.4%, Arlette 6.3%, Villiers 5.2%, Voynet 2.9%
1988: Mitterrand 56% vs Chirac 44%
R1: Mitterrand 36.2%, Chirac 19.1%, LP 16.7%, Barre 14.3%, Lajoinie 6%, Waechter 3.4%, Arlette 2.4%

Other elections
2010 Regionals R2: PS 42.6%, UMP-Maj 35.9%, FN 21.4%
2010 Regionals R1: UMP-Maj 29.8%, PS 22.6%, FN 18.4%, EELV 11.8%, FG 4.7%, MoDem 3.8%, NPA 2.8%, Stalinist 2.7%, PDF 2.4%
2009 Euros: UMP 26.3%, FN 14.6%, PS 13.2%, EELV 12.5%, MoDem 8.2%, NPA 5.3%, CPNT-MPF 5.2%, AEI 4.2%, FG 4%, DLR 2.5%

2005 Ref: NON 63.7%
1992 Ref: NON 58.8%

Demographics: http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/detail.asp?reg_id=0&ref_id=circo_leg-2012&page=donnees-detaillees/circo_leg/circo_leg-2012/tableau/circo_leg_60_2.htm

The other one is Wallis-et-Futuna, I'll piece together something for that too.

[Hash]

Wallis-et-Futuna 1st/at-large

David Vergé (DVD) 28.8%
Mikaele Kulimoetoke (DVG) 19.4%
Albert Likuvalu (PRG) 17%
Epifano Tui (DVG) 13.17%
Antonio Ilalio (MoDem) 12.37%
Simione Vanai (PS) 9.26%

David Vergé (DVD) 41.61%
Mikaele Kulimoetoke (DVG) 41.04%
Albert Likuvalu (PRG) 17.36%

Wallis-et-Futuna is a French overseas collectivity in the Pacific Ocean, with a population of over 13.4 thousand on two islands (Wallis and Futuna). The population is 97% Polynesian. The islands benefit from extensive decentralization and local monarchs/traditional chiefs govern alongside local leaders and French administrators. There is also an elected legislature. Metropolitan parties (PS, UMP, PRG, MoDem etc) all exist on the islands, but these partisan labels don't mean anything in local politics. Rather, local politics is heavily based on personalities - especially the endorsements of various traditional rulers - and campaigns have no ideological overtones. Voters often vote for the candidate based on family ties or the endorsement of their local ruler.

The islands have a single seat in the National Assembly. Between 1967 and 1988 it was held by Benjamin Brial, a Gaullist and the son of a former queen. His election was cancelled in 1988 and he was succeeded by a left-winger, Kamilo Gata who was reelected in 1993 but defeated by Victor Brial, Benjamin's son, in 1997. Brial was defeated by Albert Likuvalu (PS, later PRG) in 2007, which was a major surprise. In June, Likuvalu placed third with 17% in the first round. David Vergé, a local legislator sitting with the local right-wing opposition, won 28.8% and Mikaele Kulimoetoke, a local legislator sitting with the local left-wing majority, took 19.4%. In the 3-way runoff, Vergé won 41.6% against 41% for Kulimoetoke and 17.4% for the incumbent. Vergé originally sat as a NI, but he joined the Socialist group in July (which should tell you a lot about the relevance of partisanship and ideology on the islands)... His election was cancelled and he himself is ineligible to run (as are, apparently, all 2012 candidates who didn't qualify for the runoff) because of something with his campaign finance things.

What to expect? Your guess is as good as mine, but look for Kulimoetoke and Likuvalu to run again I guess?

Deputies
Hervé Loste (CNI/RI) 1958-1967
Benjamin Brial (UDR/RPR) 1967-1988
Kamilo Gata (PRS/MRG) 1989-1997
Victor Brial (RPR/UMP) 1997-2007
Albert Likuvalu (PS/PRG) 2007-2012
David Vergé (DVD/DVG) 2012-2013

Past presidential results
2012: Flanby 56.1% vs Sarko 43.9%
R1: Flanby 48.3%, Sarko 37.7%, Bayrou 6.4%, LP 2.4%
2007: Sarko 50.2% vs Sego 49.8%
R1: Sarko 43.6%, Sego 39.5%, Bayrou 11.2%
2002: Chirac 92.2% vs Le Pen 7.9%
R1: Chirac 50.6%, Jospin 35.8%, Chevènement 7.5% (LP 0.8%)
1995: Chirac 55.3% vs Jospin 44.7% (my guess - official results seem switched)
R1: Chirac 43.5%, Jospin 29.9%, Balladur 21.8%
1988: Chirac 73.5% vs Mitterrand 26.5%
R1: Chirac 52.3%, Barre 39.3%, Mitterrand 7.2%
1981: Giscard 97.7% vs Mitterrand 2.3%
R1: Giscard 60.2%, Chirac 38.6%, Mitterrand 0.5%
1974: Giscard 94.9% vs Mitterrand 5.1%
R1: Chaban 57.1%, Giscard 39.8%, Mitterrand 1.7%
1969: Pompidou 76% vs Poher 24%
R1: Pompidou 77.4%, Poher 21.5%, Defferre 0.6%
1965: de Gaulle 99.6% vs Mitterrand 0.4% (14 votes!)
R1: de Gaulle 99.6%

Obviously, elections in the colonies up until the 1980s weren't the cleanest things.

Other elections
2009 Euros: PS 42.6%, UMP 38.2%, MoDem 10.1%, EELV 3.3%, PCR-FG 3.2%, Libertas 2.6%

2005 Ref: OUI 89.7%
1992 Ref: OUI 76.5%

[Antonio the Sixth]

The W&F thing is pretty hilarious.

Anyway, no change in sight probably. After Aboud, another far-rightist-in-all-but-name will be saved by low turnout...

[Franknburger]

Very informative. Constituencies can be a fascinating microcosmos.

Two notes:

Oise 2nd

This constituency includes the west of the Oise department and the southwest canton of Beauvais, the main regional city. It includes the cantons of Grandvilliers, Fromerie, Songeons, Le Coudray-Saint-Germer, Auneuil, Beauvais SO, Noailles and Chaumont-en-Vexin. From a natural regions standpoint, the constituency doesn't make much sense. It includes parts of four natural regions which run "horizontally" along rivers from the English Channel rather than 'vertically' like the constituency does. The north is part of the Plateau Picard, the cantons of Auneuil, Songeons and Beauvais SO are part of the Bray, the cantons of Coudray-Saint-Germer and parts of Noailles are in the Thelle/Thérain valley and the south is part of the French Vexin.

Cities tend to develop at the border of natural regions, because this border creates demand for trade (e.g. grain & beef from the plain vs. wood / charcoal & mutton / wool from the mountains). Therefore, any constituency that is centred around a larger city should typically comprise several natural regions.

Marine Le Pen/Marion/Panzergirl did really well in the constituency, she scored some very impressive numbers which were higher than her father's 2002 and 1995 results in constituencies like this one across eastern/northern France: poor, low education, middle-aged, fairly isolated small towns (no large cities outside Beauvais, the largest has just 3000 people) and marginalized small towns/exurbs which are pulled to the large cities (few surviving local industries). The foreign population is low (3%) but because many of the inhabitants in those areas tend to commute to large cities and interact/confront large immigrant populations there, the FN's rhetoric on immigration is powerful here.

The pattern is similar in Germany - high NPD vote shares tend to be found in areas with very low foreign population. and high unemployment. The motivation, however, is different.  A low share of foreigners means few people have every-day life social contect with immigrants. This makes it easy to use foreigners as scapegoats for the real problem, which is unemployment. This rethoric does not work anymore when it is the Turkish kid that scores most goals in your son's football team, and his father is occasionally offering to drive your son to away matches.

[Hash]

Cities tend to develop at the border of natural regions, because this border creates demand for trade (e.g. grain & beef from the plain vs. wood / charcoal & mutton / wool from the mountains). Therefore, any constituency that is centred around a larger city should typically comprise several natural regions.

Yes, of course; I'm not actually criticizing the constituency's boundaries from this standpoint, just pointing out that it does not correspond to natural regions. Naturally, a constituency centered around a major city and englobing its suburbs makes lots of sense, more so than following natural boundaries. However, this constituency is not really 'centered' around a major city given that it only includes half (or less) of Beauvais, the other half is contained in the 1st constituency which reaches out to the north and the plateau. Splitting major cities is very widespread practice in French legislative redistricting; oftentimes it is purely partisan gerrymandering for the right.

The shape of this current constituency is likely influenced in part by the administrative arrondissement of Beauvais. The Third Republic's single-member constituencies were based on the boundaries of the arrondissements, in some cases the 1958 - and then 1986 and 2009 - boundaries were not all that dissimilar to pre-war boundaries and were based on arrondissement limits.

The pattern is similar in Germany - high NPD vote shares tend to be found in areas with very low foreign population. and high unemployment. The motivation, however, is different.  A low share of foreigners means few people have every-day life social contect with immigrants. This makes it easy to use foreigners as scapegoats for the real problem, which is unemployment. This rethoric does not work anymore when it is the Turkish kid that scores most goals in your son's football team, and his father is occasionally offering to drive your son to away matches.

The factor you mention is certainly a very common explanation and it is commonplace in France and other countries; but the factor I described above is not unusual at all in France. It is either because a lot of the population in certain regions tend to be lower middle-class families who have been forced out of major urban areas because of high property prices, white flight/crime/immigration fears and so forth and now live on depressed exurban fringes but still commute long distances to major cities. They often resent major cities as centres of immigrants (equated with the increase in criminality and unemployment) and 'bobos bien-pensant'/leftist intellectual elites. Even if they have social contact with immigrants, it often reinforces their mentalities (and stereotypes). There is an interesting journal article on the very high FN vote in rural Alsace and Lorraine where there are basically 0 foreigners, in many cases FN voters said that they saw immigrants (North Africans) at their work place who abused social benefits, had tons of kids and received family benefits and the usual stuff (like in this constituency, they lived in small towns but commuted for work to larger towns with some immigrants).

[Hash]

Apparently I am not allowed to ever have half-decent parliamentarians representing 'me', because my French deputy's election has been quashed. There is no hope whatsoever in this god-forsaken world. Might as well give up and restore absolute monarchies.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2013/02/15/le-conseil-constituionnel-annule-l-election-de-deux-deputees-ps-des-francais-de-l-etranger_1833158_823448.html

French abroad 1st

Corinne Narassiguin (PS) 39.65%
Frédéric Lefebvre (UMP) 22.08%
Emile Servan-Schreiber (DVD) 6.69%
Julien Balkany (DVD) 6.61%
Antoine Treuille (DVD) 5.1%
Carole Granade (MoDem) 4.94%
Claire Savreux (FN) 4.29%
Céline Clément (FG) 2.85%
Gérard Michon (DVD) 2.23%
Philippe Manteau (ARES-NC) 1.41%
Raphaël Clayette (Pirate) 1.29%
Christophe Navel (Ind) 1.28%
Stéphanie Bowring (PRG) 1.04%
5 others under 1%
turnout: 20.4%

Corinne Narassiguin (PS) 54.01%
Frédéric Lefebvre (UMP) 45.99%
turnout: 19.07%

The first constituency includes all of Canada and the United States (and, by definition the Barbados, Bahamas and Puerto Rico as well since they're under the jurisdiction of the embassy in DC). Most of the population is in the US (125,171 registered at the end of 2012 - which means it has the third largest French population after Switzerland and the UK) with 78,646 registered citizens in Canada. In the US, the main concentrations are New York, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles/SoCal and Florida. In Canada, two-thirds live in the Montreal area.

This is a right-leaning constituency due to the strong right-wing lean of French voters living in the United States: largely a community of businessmen, entrepreneurs, educated professionals and other assorted French right-wing types who would be attracted to a country such as the US and all it entails. Sarko won 61.3% in the US in the runoff. Sarko performed best in Miami/Florida (81.1%) where most of the voters are probably old heliotropic resort/coastal people.  Unsurprisingly, he won similarly massive margins in Nevada (over 80%), Texas (over 70%), Arizona (over 65%), the OC/Newport Beach/Santa Barbara (over 65%), Virginia (ditto) and the Marin County/San Mateo County/Santa Clara County affluent suburbs of SF and the Silicon Valley (over 60%). He also won over 65% in most Manhattan precincts. Basically, though, he won everything in the US with the following exceptions: Louisiana (few voters, but Hollande dominated with over 55%), New Mexico (same story), San Francisco, Berkeley (and the rest of NoCal), Portland OR and a few precincts in Williamsburg (Brooklyn). Hollande won the hippies, the evil academics and the teachers.

Hollande won 55.8% in Canada, which leans to the left thanks to very strong support for the PS in Montreal. French people in Quebec either tend to be teachers or other left-wing types (when thinking about these things, you need to consider what kind of people would voluntarily choose to move to certain places over others) rather than wealthier business-type expats. Hollande took over 55% in the Montreal consulate constituency, he also won by a similar margin in the Maritimes and took a bit below 50% in the Quebec City constituency and in Ottawa-Gatineau. He also won BC, which might attract some more hippiesh-type people. Sarkozy's only victory was the Calgary constituency, in which he unsurprisingly took over 55%. He also won Ontario outside of Ottawa (voters in Toronto mainly).

On the basis of the presidential results, many expected (the UMP included) that the UMP would take the seat easily. It did, after all, have a fairly notable candidate here: Frédéric Lefebvre, the party's former spokesperson/attack dog and a junior cabinet minister (for small business, tourism and other sh**t) between 2010 and 2012. Except that the UMP's notable candidate was/is also a horrible candidate. To begin with, he was a carpetbagger (even if he grew up in the US or something, he's a 92 guy); not to mention he's also a moron whose political career only took off because he was a loyal attackdog for Sarko and licked his ass for a living, and an intellectually dishonest partisan hack. He needed to be rewarded, but in the absence of a seat in the 92 for him, they sent him to where he claims to have learned to walk and and speak (but apparently he didn't learn to read) - believe it or not, the original plan was to run Christine Lagarde here. Lefebvre being a smug arrogant douchebag, he alienated the local right-wingers which led to a massive clusterfark in June. You had five other right-wing dissident candidates. There was Julien Balkany (a trader or something in NYC), whose brother Patrick is a criminal and a UMP mayor/deputy in the 92; Antoine Treuille, who is apparently NKM's uncle and branded himself as the moderate right-winger; Emile Servan-Schreiber, JJSS' son who ran a bland centre-right campaign about vague bullsh**t; Philippe Manteau, a classical liberal who liked Reagan; and Gérard Michon (member of the useless parliament for French people abroad), a crazy old man who ran some weird Gaullist campaign which consisted of anti-leftist hate mail.

On the left, the PS-EELV candidate was Corinne Narassiguin, a businesswoman (and member of the AFE - that useless parliament for Frenchies abroad) who actually lived in North America. There was also a FG candidate (a Mélenchoniste teacher if my memory serves me correctly). The PRG candidate, Stéphanie Bowring, was nothing short of awesome (her suppléant even more so!).

Lefebvre ran a pretty horrible campaign as well, basically forgetting that he was running until a few weeks before the first round, at which point he panicked and spammed my inbox furiously (though the crazy old weirdo Michon won at that).

Narassiguin did very well in the first round, taking nearly 40% while Lefebvre, crippled by the divisions on the right, won a horrible 22%. Theoretically, the right/FN/centre had an absolute majority and most right-wing dissidents endorsed Lefebvre to defeat the PS, but the internecine clusterfark had left some bad blood and Lefebvre only managed to go up to 46% in the runoff - not all that bad considering the first round, but pretty horrible considering the constituency's natural lean. She won 63% in Canada and got up to 46.8% in the US (winning in the consulates of Boston, Chicago, New Orleans, SF, Washington).

Narassiguin was a backbencher but still fairly active and seemingly competent. She was one of the main 'floor leaders' on the gay marriage bill. She also organized constituent meetings and sent out newsletters, which is pretty laudable considering that my real Canadian MP has not been seen or heard of in months.

Her election was invalidated and she was declared ineligible for a year. The reason is related to the campaign finances, the ConCon said she opened two bank accounts or something. Maybe they have a point, but everybody said that the whole finance aspect of the legislative campaign abroad was horribly vague and the government provided little information to candidates on the process. Treuille and Servan-Schreiber were also declared ineligible for a year for similar reasons.

It's hard to predict a by-election where turnout will hardly be over 10%, but this seems like a disaster waiting to happen. To begin with, Fredo is running again - he remained active after his defeat. The PS is unpopular and will have sh**tloads of trouble mobilizing people in a by-election in such circumstances. The elimination of two of the main DVD dissidents from June also simplifies matters for the right. Fredo remains a dickhead, but he has a much better chance of winning now.

Past presidential results
2012: Sarko 53.6% vs Flanby 46.4%
R1: Sarko 37.7%, Flanby 28.3%, Bayrou 12.6%, Mélenchon 7.1%, Joly 6.2%, Panzergirl 5.7%
2007: Sarko 54% vs Sego 46%
R1: Sarko 38.5%, Sego 29.9%, Bayrou 21.5%, LP 3.3%, Voynet 2%, Besancenot 1.3%, Bové 1.2%

I'll put something together for the other by-elections: 8th French abroad.

[Hash]

French abroad 8th

Daphna Poznanski-Benhamou (PS) 30.50%
Valérie Hoffenberg (UMP) 22.20%
Philippe Karsenty (DVD) 14.45%
Pierre Jestin (EELV) 10.5%
Gil Taïeb (DVD) 9.92%
Michèle Parravicini (FG) 6.32%
Huguette Levy (FN) 3.76%
Julien Lemaître (LaRouchite) 1.1%
2 others under 1%
turnout: 13.37%

Daphna Poznanski-Benhamou (PS) 55.88%
Valérie Hoffenberg (UMP) 44.12%
turnout: 12.77%

This constituency includes Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Malta, San Marino, the Vatican and Turkey. Around 44% of registered voters lived in Israel in June 2012 and 31% lived in Italy. Greece has around 11,000 registered French citizens, Turkey has a bit more than 7.3k and Cyprus has a bit over 1.3k. Italy leans to the left, Greece and Turkey are very solidly left-wing. The inclusion of Israel in there is a nice bit of gerrymandering by the right to cancel out the left-wing lean of the other countries. Hollande won Italy (don't have the exact numbers on me), doing best in central Italy, Veneto and the islands (over 55%) while Sarko only won Milan and the Aosta Valley (business people and ski bunnies). Hollande won 65-70% or so in Greece and Turkey. Sarko won Cyprus and Malta, but it was his huge win in Israel (85-90%) which carried him over the top handily in the constituency. Most French citizens in Israel are French Jewish immigrants who hold both nationalities, they tend to be particularly hawkish on the Israeli issue obviously.

The entire legislative elections for the 11 international seats were a massive disaster for the UMP (rendered funnier by the fact that they were created to shore them up). This constituency was the best example of this massive disaster. As in North America, the division of the right played a big role. The UMP candidate, Hoffenberg, was a dual French-Israeli (Jewish) citizen and former boss of the American Jewish Committee in Paris. Her credentials on the Israeli issue were fairly solid, she got fired by Juppé from the Quai d'Orsay for opposing France's support for the Palestinian membership of UNESCO. However, she received a strong challenge from her right by Philippe Karsenty, a media analyst whose website tracks anti-Semitism/anti-Israeli sentiments in the media (he's Jewish too). He is most famous for his obsessional crusade against Charles Enderlin, a France2 journalist who he accused of showing hoax footage of the death of Mohamed Al-Dura in 2000 in Gaza (alleged to have been targeted and murdered by the IDF). He said Hoffenberg was too pro-Palestinian - probably because she didn't join his creepy obsessional crusade. Gil Taïeb, who is also a right-wing Jew, ran on the right as well. I don't know much about Taïeb but he seems to be a fruitcake like Karsenty. The PS candidate, Daphna Poznanski-Benhamou, lived in Israel (and is Jewish too I guess).

The first round was clusterfark. Karsenty was so pissed that he endorsed the PS. The PS candidate won by a huge margin: 55.9%. She won 61% in Italy, 67.5% in Greece, 73% in Greece and took 42% in Israel. Turnout was noticeably lower in Israel (7%) than the rest of the constituency (19-23%).

Her election was invalidated for financial reasons again, she was also declared ineligible for a year along with Karsenty and Taieb. Again, really tough to predict, but I guess the right is favoured.

Past presidential results
2012: Sarko 62.9% vs Flanby 37.1%
R1: Sarko 49%, Flanby 24.2%, Mélenchon 7.7%, Bayrou 6.9%, Panzergirl 5.3%, Joly 4%

...

So this means I have a weird by-election in my own constituency. It's a horrible situation, naturally. Hollande has been an incompetent doofus so far and the PS/the government sucks terribly; on the other hand, I am never going to vote for an intellectually dishonest hackish moron, the candidate of a homophobic and near-reactionary party whose leader is an illegitimate crook. Fredo can't be allowed anywhere near the National Assembly, there are already far too many morons of his kind over there, so I guess I might hold my nose and vote for an incompetent party of idiots instead. Chances are, however, that Fredo will win and I will have a horrible idiot as my rep.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh sh*t.

[Zanas]

You have my wholehearted condolences if you do... But chances are Lefebvre can still pull up a loss, he has it in him.

[Hash]

Julien Balkany is running. He wasn't all that strong in June, but maybe he can spoil it for Fredo.

[MaxQue]

Julien Balkany is running. He wasn't all that strong in June, but maybe he can spoil it for Fredo.

Is that really better? Considering his brother, I'm not sure.

[Zanas]

What's better is that he could spoil the right-wing vote, and get the replacement PS candidate in, which would in nearly any case be better than a moronic douchebag or the brother of a convicted felon.

[Hash]

Oise + WF are held today.

The results for Wallis et Futuna are already out:
Napole Polutelé (UMP): 2543 (37.39%)
Mikaele Kulimoetoke (UPWF-PS): 2 253 (33.12%)
Tatau Tialetagi (DVG): 2 006 (29.49%)

[Andrea]

Oise 2nd

Turnout below 27%

It appears as it will be a UMP - FN run off

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oise 2nd

Turnout below 27%

It appears as it will be a UMP - FN run off

Dear Lord...

[Hash]

Jean-François Mancel (UMP): 40.61% (2012: 33.36%)
Florence Italiani (FN): 26.58% (2012: 23.23%)
Sylvie Houssin (PS): 21.37% (2012: 30.5%)
Pierre Ripart (FdG): 6.64% (2012: 5.25%)
Clément Lesaege (Parti Pirate): 1.97%
Renée Potchtovik (Lutte Ouvrière): 1.57% (2012: 0.73% + 0.41% NPA)
Michel Ramel (SE): 1.25%

Turnout 32.79% (2012: 58.82%)

[Antonio the Sixth]

This country is heading straight to a disaster.

[Hash]

Big rumours that Louis Giscard d'Estaing (UDI, ex-UMP) is going to announce his candidacy in North America.

[MaxQue]

Big rumours that Louis Giscard d'Estaing (UDI, ex-UMP) is going to announce his candidacy in North America.

It's good, or not? (Sure, it's better than Lefebvre, but, I can't say I know much about Louis Giscard d'Estaing except his father).

[MaxQue]

Oise 2nd

Turnout below 27%

It appears as it will be a UMP - FN run off

Dear Lord...

And UMP won 51.6-48.4, by only 786 votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...

[Hash]

Le candidat UMP a obtenu 51,41% des voix, selon la préfecture, contre 48,59% pour le candidat. Cela correspond à moins de 800 voix d'écart. La participation a été de 35%.

[MaxQue]

The scale is a bit surprising, but, the fact than FN progressed much isn't.

The Republican Front is dead, since the 2012 Legislatives and today proved it again.
And, honestly, for some left-wingers, the economical/Europe project is more attracting than the UMP one.

And on immigration, now, Mancel (and a whole segment of UMP) and FN, that's almost the same thing.

We can just hope it follows an UKIP-like path instead of a BNP-like path, for the sake of French minorities.

[Andrea]

Oise + WF are held today.

The results for Wallis et Futuna are already out:
Napole Polutelé (UMP): 2543 (37.39%)
Mikaele Kulimoetoke (UPWF-PS): 2 253 (33.12%)
Tatau Tialetagi (DVG): 2 006 (29.49%)

Polutéle won with 37.51% with Kulimoetoke at 32.27% and Tialetagi  at 30.22%

[Antonio the Sixth]

...

My reaction as well.