Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Alright some predictions

- Ap will be the largest party.
- H and Krf will under-preform slightly from polls, Frp and V will over-preform slightly.
- MdG will pass 4%, SV will fall below 4%.
- The next government will consist of H+Frp+Krf+Sp. (This is a bold one)  

I understand it's easy to look at the Norwegian election and see it simply as a case of voters being bored, however:

- Arrogance among the governing parties
- A general sense that they are only managing, not governing, or presenting any visions whatsoever
- The peripheries feeling neglected at the same time as the cities feel they are being neglected as well
- As well as fatigue

Is going to be what defeats the government.

So exactly the same reason the Alliance government will loose next year over here in the brother land. Our peoples are more alike than either side would like to admit.  

[Viewfromthenorth]

So exactly the same reason the Alliance government will loose next year over here in the brother land. Our peoples are more alike than either side would like to admit.  

Yeah, pretty much.

Predictions:
Ap - 29,3 - 55 seats
H - 26,5 - 46 seats
FrP - 16,6 - 31 seats
V - 5,9 - 11 seats
KrF - 5,5 - 9 seats
Sp - 4,5 - 8 seats
SV - 4,2 - 6 seats
MdG - 3,0 - 2 seats
Rødt - 2,4 - 1 seat

Red-green - 38,0 - 69
Blue-green-yellow - 54,5 - 97
Rødt + MdG - 5,4 - 3

[DC Al Fine]

Can someone explain how Norway's system works? I know there's a 4% threshold but apparently you can get a seat or 2 even if you get under that.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Can someone explain how Norway's system works? I know there's a 4% threshold but apparently you can get a seat or 2 even if you get under that.

There are 150 district seats distributed between the counties, these work as in a normal list system. Say if you have approximately a fourth of the vote in Sogn og Fjordane, you get one of the four district seats from there. The 4% threshold is for the so-called "levelling seats" (utjevningsmandater) which exist because the district system alone favors major parties. There are 19 levelling seats, one for each county, and they are distributed among the parties to provide something approaching proportional representation.

[jaichind]

When does the polls close?  It is 6:44Pm already.  Will there be exit polls.  Based on what I know my understanding is that H+FrP+KrF+V will exceed their 2001 results and this will be the largest right wing majority in modern Norway election history.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When do the polls close?

[Viewfromthenorth]

Polls in most of the country close at 9 PM. Exit poll will be published on both NRK and TV2 then. By the way, NRK is making their election night feed accessible outside of Norway:

http://www.nrk.no/valg2013/

[Tender Branson]

Any word on turnout so far ?

[Tender Branson]

http://live2.tv2.no/nyheter/valg2013

... is pretty good.

Has a live stream embedded, together with results/exit poll on the right side.

[Lurker]

Alright some predictions

- Ap will be the largest party.
- H and Krf will under-preform slightly from polls, Frp and V will over-preform slightly.
- MdG will pass 4%, SV will fall below 4%.
- The next government will consist of H+Frp+Krf+Sp. (This is a bold one)  

I understand it's easy to look at the Norwegian election and see it simply as a case of voters being bored, however:

- Arrogance among the governing parties
- A general sense that they are only managing, not governing, or presenting any visions whatsoever
- The peripheries feeling neglected at the same time as the cities feel they are being neglected as well
- As well as fatigue

Is going to be what defeats the government.

So exactly the same reason the Alliance government will loose next year over here in the brother land. Our peoples are more alike than either side would like to admit.  

Seems to be the most common reason for government defeat in Scandinavia - there's no clear correlation between strenght of the economy and performance of the government at elections. Of course, the same applies to the 2005 election where the centre-right government lost and also the Swedish election of 2006.

As for your prediction - why would the right-wing cooperate with Sp instead of Venstre?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As for your prediction - why would the right-wing cooperate with Sp instead of Venstre?

I just have a hunch that even though the battle ax between Venstre and Frp has officially been buried there might be trouble when the winners try to create a government together. The Centre Party is traditionally closer to the right, and as I've understood it there are elements of the party who very much wishes to return it to the centre-right camp, and they seem much less principally opposed towards Frp than Venstre does.
 
Sure it's unlikely, but that's why I called it a bold prediction.      

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Right, party vote prediction:

Ap: 30,4%
H: 25,8%
Frp: 17,7%
V: 5,7%
Sp: 5,6%
Krf 5,3%
MdG: 4,0%
SV: 3,8%
R: 1,2%

[joevsimp]

the numbers don't quite stack up for the traditional H, KrF, V, SP coalition do they? I think that SP have also burned a few bridges going all out against Hoyre's agricultural policies lately

[jaichind]

NRK exit polls

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

[jaichind]

NTB exit poll

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

(seems to be same as NRK)

[jaichind]

With these exit poll results I think the H+FrP+KrF+V vote share should be slightly below 54%, which will exceed their 2001 vote share of 52.1% which was the largest right-wing vote share in modern Norway elections.

[jaichind]

These exit polls has 93 for center-right opposition and 75 for center-left goverment.  I assume the last seat goes to Red Party?

[jaichind]

TV2 exit polls just has  93 for center-right and 74 for center-left.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

NTB exit poll

Christian Dem  10 seats
Liberal              8 seats
Center party    13 seats
Socialist left      7 seats
Progress          31 seats
Labor              55 seats
Conservative    44 seats

(seems to be same as NRK)

That's because it's not an Exit Poll.
Apparently, not all polls close at the same time in Norway, and this is a projection based on the votes already counted. But it includes no votes from Oslo, which makes it a bit pointless.

[jaichind]

Interesting.  All the English language news media seems to say (example Bloomberg)  "The Conservative Party and its partners the Progress Party, the Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats, are set to win 94 seats of the 169 in parliament, according to the average of exit polls by state broadcaster NRK, NTB and TV2. Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg’s Labor-led three-party coalition won 74 seats, the polls showed after voting closed at 9 p.m. local time."

Which refered to them as exit polls.  If they are just results without Oslo then that is something very different.

[jaichind]

Ah.  I see it.  DPA "Oslo (DPA) -- Norway's ruling red-green coalition will lose its parliamentary majority, according to projections based on partial results, issued just after polling stations closed Monday.
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's Labour Party and its two junior partners were set to get 76 seats, compared to the 86 they had in the outgoing 169-seat legislature.
The opposition bloc led by Erna Solberg, leader of the Conservative Party, was projected to win 93 seats. Her potential coalition partners include the right-wing populist Progress Party, the Liberals and Christian Democrats.
Statistics Norway's projection was based on about 16 per cent of the vote, but did not include tallies from the capital, Oslo."

So the exit polls are based on, but not equal to,  16% of the vote which does not include Oslo.  I assume these projections takes into account some sort of relationship between the votes coming in so far and what that might imply about Oslo's vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oslo usually votes a tad to the right of the rest of the country, but only a tad.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Listening to Krf leaders speech. Nynorsk doesn't sound like Norwegian, it sounds like a strange wimpy dialect of Swedish. <.<

[jaichind]

The results are based on a count of 24.9 percent of the votes released so far today. The participation level was 72.8 percent, subject to change.

                           Count        2009 Election
-------------------------------------------------------
Government and supporters
Labor Party                 30.0%             35.4%
Socialist Left Party         3.9%              6.2%
Center Party                 5.9%              6.2%
-------------------------------------------------------
Opposition alliance
Conservatives               26.8%             17.2%
Christian Democrats        5.9%              5.5%
Liberal Party                  4.6%              3.9%
Progress Party              16.9%             22.9%
-------------------------------------------------------

[Jens]

The Greens gains a mandate in Oslo and is thus in parliament for the first time ever (doesn't look like they will break the 4 % threshold though)