Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[eric82oslo]

eric82oslo, I find your hatred and descriptions of FrP completely irrational. FrP are considerably more moderate than they were in, say, 1989. Them entering government will likely be about as harmless as SV entering government was in 2005. Dansk Folkeparti is in my view to the right of FrP. And, lastly, there are educated people who vote for FrP as well (albeit not many).

Educated doesn't mean non-egoistic. Of course there are educated people out there who are extremely narcisistic and self-loving.

[DC Al Fine]

I notice that KrP & Venstre are making decent gains. Do they take votes mostly from Hoyre, or Frp?

[Viewfromthenorth]

I notice that KrP & Venstre are making decent gains. Do they take votes mostly from Hoyre, or Frp?

Not actually sure. Both parties are appealing to the "want a new government but are really afraid of FrP" segment, which is probably going to be quite successful. I'd guess mostly Høyre, though KrF may appeal more to rural and working-class voters who would otherwise vote FrP.

[eric82oslo]

I notice that KrP & Venstre are making decent gains. Do they take votes mostly from Hoyre, or Frp?

Not actually sure. Both parties are appealing to the "want a new government but are really afraid of FrP" segment, which is probably going to be quite successful. I'd guess mostly Høyre, though KrF may appeal more to rural and working-class voters who would otherwise vote FrP.

Yeah, KrF seems to be doing an amazingly horrific election in the Bible Belt of Southern Norway, only getting around 8%, while they almost always get between 20% and 25% there. It's quite clear that almost all of the Christian voters in the south have deserted the party in favor of Frp, which is the only other big Norwegian party which still advocates Christian conservative and ridiculous values like hating on gays.

[Lurker]

There's a new poll by Norfakta showing a clear majority for the Conservatives+ Progress Party, with 27,4% and 21,9% respectively.

These results are massively different from what today's VG poll shows, which gives them a combined 41,5%. Obviously, one of these pollsters will have eggs on their face two days from now.

[HansOslo]

Erick82: You seem to harbor a lot of the same prejudice against FrP as you accuse them as having against immigrants. I don’t see how you can claim that Carl Ivar Hagen is the worst Norwegian ever after Anders Behring Breivik. Anders Breivik killed close to 80 people in cold blood. Carl Ivar Hagen has created a political party, based on a set of political ideas. Those ideas are obviously different from yours, but they are still completely legitimate, just as legitimate as the social democracy of AP, and Høyre’s “liberal conservatism”.

Regarding today’s poll: It looks like the poll overstates FrP’s numbers. They might be doing better than the 13-15 % we have seen recently, but 21 % is probably a bit too much.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Today, FrP managed to make me angry for the first time in this election campaign. They are for the most part somewhat moderate these days, with the exception of some elephants in a china shop like Christian Tybring-Gjedde. But today they proposed that to be allowed to bring a foreign spouse into Norway, you should be required to earn 426 000 kr (Around $70 125) a year after taxes.

Now, I understand what they are trying to avoid. They are trying to avoid pro forma marriages that only exist to give the foreign spouse a free ticket into Norway. That could become a problem if it is not already and it needs to be stop. But to do this, Frp proposes to exclude almost every rank-and-file worker in the public sector from being allowed to marry a foreigner and still live in Norway. You're a nurse who met this really nice Canadian guy while you were studying in the US? Forget it.

What almost angers me more is that FrPs immigration spokesperson, Morten Ørsal Johansen, claims that nobody can make a living off of today's limit of 246 000 kr (around $40 500). What planet does this guy live on? Thousands of Norwegian families live off of smaller incomes than that. It almost reminds me of the Romney campaign classifying families earning $250000 as "middle class".

I think a period of responsibility will do FrP good. Voters will realize how far out some of their economic policies are, as well as being able to see that their wild promises on immigration and transportation will be impossible to carry out when placed in a position of responsibility.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a very quick note from your friendly neighbourhood dictator: debate is good, but certain... er... rhetorical flourishes (particularly those more than verging on hyperbole) should, perhaps, be avoided.

Regular programming has resumed.

[Franknburger]

If I am not mistaken, the election is tomorrow. How about a bit of preliminary information such as

- Poll opening and closure
- When will the first projections be available? How precise are they typically?
- Around which time can we expect to have fairly stable results?
- Websites where live results will be reported
- Regions/ constituencies to look out for (bellweathers etc.)

Thanks in advance.

[Viewfromthenorth]

If I am not mistaken, the election is tomorrow. How about a bit of preliminary information such as

- Poll opening and closure
- When will the first projections be available? How precise are they typically?
- Around which time can we expect to have fairly stable results?
- Websites where live results will be reported
- Regions/ constituencies to look out for (bellweathers etc.)

Thanks in advance.

Polls open at 9 and close at 9 nationwide. Some polling stations are open today as well (Oslo and some other municipalities), and almost 850 000 people have voted in advance.

The exit poll at 9 o'clock is usually quite accurate on the amount of seats each side gets, though it varies somewhat between the parties (i.e. last time Venstre got 10 seats in the exit poll, lost 8 of them, but they were distributed among the rest of the right-wing parties)

Stable results...midnight-ish. However there is one factor that's important, and that is that we have no idea whether Oslo's vote counting system will work. And also, a high number of advance votes, as mentioned.

Any Norwegian news site (nrk.no, aftenposten.no, vg.no, tv2.no, dagbladet.no, etc) will have good results. I would try to follow NRK or TV2.

Bellwethers aren't all that common in Norway seeing as though we have a list system, however there are some traditionally "red" counties that may see a larger right-wing contingent than usual in this election: Telemark, Østfold, Buskerud, Nordland. Should any of these counties flip to a majority for the right, and also Oslo, we can be pretty sure of the winner. Many of the other counties (Akershus, the Agders, all of Western Norway except Sogn og Fjordane for the right; Northern Norway, the Trøndelags, Hedmark and Oppland for the left) will not be likely to change much.

[Tender Branson]

Persons eligible to vote by county and age:

http://www.ssb.no/en/valg/statistikker/stemmerettst/hvert-4-aar/2013-09-03?fane=tabell&sort=nummer&tabell=132883

[Tender Branson]

What's interesting too (from Statistics Norway):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ssb.no/en/valg/statistikker/stemmerettst/hvert-4-aar/2013-09-03#content

[eric82oslo]

If I am not mistaken, the election is tomorrow. How about a bit of preliminary information such as

- Poll opening and closure
- When will the first projections be available? How precise are they typically?
- Around which time can we expect to have fairly stable results?
- Websites where live results will be reported
- Regions/ constituencies to look out for (bellweathers etc.)

Thanks in advance.

There are a few news and records available this year already before the election officially closes tomorrow.

1. A new record of early voters has been set. This years number of 842,400 early voters - which make up almost 25% of the entire electorate, is a vast improvement from the past record sat in 2009, being about 180,000 votes higher than that one. This will make the early projections, to be released by NRK when the election halls close down at 9 o'clock CET tomorrow, even more reliable than ever before. New of the year is that NRK will no longer organize an election day poll, as analysis from the 2009 election showed that already then, with fewer early voters than this year, the early projections were in fact closer to the actual result than the various election day polls released by various media outlets.

2. In addition to the early votes cast, in 12 municipalities across the country, voters have been able to cast their vote through internet. This is the very first time this has been possible in a parliamentary election, although it was already tried out in a similar amount (10) of municipalities in the 2011 local elections, with very satisfying results and a high turnout. Preliminary results point to a very high turnout this time around as well in the 12 municipalities in question. The biggest cities/municipalities taking part in this trial this time are Sandnes (together with Stavanger Norway's 3rd most populous city), Fredrikstad (together with Sarpsborg Norway's 5th biggest city), Ålesund (Norway's 10th largest city), Bodø (2nd largest city in Northern Norway), Larvik, Mandal and Hammerfest (historically Norway's northern-most city). The remaining 5 municipalities taking part are just minor towns/municipalities.

3. 9 out of the 19 election regions, the so-called "fylker", which is the second highest administrative level (similar to US states), have experienced either a gain or a loss of parliamentary representatives compared to the 2009 election. Oslo has gained 2 new members; up from 17 to 19, making it very lucrative for smaller parties like The Greens and Red to compete for votes in the capital. The other 3 "fylker" with a gain of one member each are Akershus, Hordaland and Rogaland. All 4 among the most southern of the Norwegian "fylker". Similarily, all 5 "fylker" losing parliamentary members this time are among the more "northern" of Norway's fylker, clearly indicating that we're seeing a rapid shift of where people are chosing to settle. Many towns in the north are becoming more and more deserted while Oslo at the same time is seeing an unprecedented growth. The 5 fylker experiencing a loss of members (1 each) are Troms, Nordland, Nord-Trøndelag, Sogn og Fjordane and Hedmark. All 5 traditionally strong regions for the governing Farmers' Party/Rural Party (Senterpartiet), at the same time as Oslo is by far the party's weakest fylke. This might imply that Senterpartiet might do an unusually bad election, even worse than the polls have been suggesting. The parties most likely to benefit from these changes are the minor parties like Red, The Greens, Liberal Party and Socialist Left, as well as the Conservative Party due to having a strong hold in the big cities of Oslo, Bergen (Hordaland) and Stavanger (Rogaland), as well as the Oslo suburbs in Akershus. A parliamentarian member from Oslo is almost certain for The Greens at this stage. Two members from the capital are also quite possible in fact. They also have about a 50% chance, if not more, of obtaining a member from Hordaland. Green representatives from Akershus and Sør-Trøndelag are also definitely possible, although slightly more remote possibilities. Red is very likely to get a member from Oslo.

4. Aftenposten, Norway's biggest news paper, released an article this evening which said that Statistics Norway had looked at the 2009 results and found out that Gjerdrum in Akershus - in the middle of Oslo and the Oslo suburb of Lillestrøm at one end and the national airport Gardermoen at the other extreme - was the county/municipality closest to the national results in 2009. They were also second closest in 2005 and third closest in 2001. It is a municipality on the verge between the urban and rural divide, which might explain why it's currently regarded as the utmost bellweather county of Norway. The article: http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/Her-bor-valgprofetene-7304142.html#.Ui0uufI4VYc

5. It's not exactly a news, yet the Norwegian election system for the national parliament is heavily undemocratic in one aspect; the fact that not only the population of each region/county/state/fylke decide how many members each fylke will get, but also the size of each fylke. This is a huge contrast to many other Western countries, including the US and Australia, where only the population of each congressional county decides the outcome of elections (like in elections for the House of Representatives in the US). This makes for very odd and uncomfortable outcomes of parliamentary elections. While Finnmark, the least populous fylke, has only 53,000 voters in this election, the capital Oslo has 435,000 eligible voters. This means that Oslo has 8.2 times as many voters. Yet Oslo has "only" 19 members of parliament, while Finnmark has as many as 5. This again means that Oslo only has 3.8 times as many members. In other words, a vote in Finnmark is worth more than double of a similar vote in Oslo. This is not exactly democracy in action, and does of course favor the rural parties (mostly Senterpartiet) heavily, but also the big, national parties (traditionally Labour, in this election also the Conservatives, although to a slightly lesser extent as they're still considered more of an urban party). More on these changes here: http://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stortingsvalget_2013#Endringer_f.C3.B8r_valget

This is the number of members awarded to each fylke in the 2013 election:

Oslo: 19
Akershus: 17
Hordaland: 16
Rogaland: 14
Sør-Trøndelag: 10
Østfold, Buskerud, Møre og Romsdal, Nordland: 9
Vestfold, Oppland, Hedmark: 7
Vest-Agder, Troms, Telemark: 6
Nord-Trøndelag, Finnmark: 5
Sogn og Fjordane, Aust-Agder: 4

However, if each vote had counted equally in all parts of the country, meaning that geographically tiny fylker like Oslo and Vestfold had not get punished as they are today, the number of members would instead have looked like this:

Oslo: 20 (+1)
Akershus: 18 (+1)
Hordaland: 16 (almost 17)
Rogaland: 14
Sør-Trøndelag: 10
Østfold: 10 (+1)
Buskerud: 9
Møre og Romsdal: 9
Nordland: 8 (-1)
Vestfold: 8 (+1)
Hedmark: 7
Oppland: 7
Telemark: 6
Vest-Agder: 6
Troms: 6
Nord-Trøndelag: 5
Aust-Agder: 4
Sogn og Fjordane: 4
Finnmark: 3 (-2) [in fact they would only get 2.5, which I decided to round up to 3]

In other words, the three northernmost fylker would lose 3 members, while Oslo, Akershus, Østfold and Vestfold would all gain one member each. In fact one more fylke would have to give up on one of its members, but I'm not quite sure which one it would be. Doesn't feel fair to punish the smallest one of them all, Finnmark. The easiest solution would probably be to increase the number of members with one or a handful.

If it was up to me, I would have made three major changes to the current electoral system in Norway:

1. Reduce the number of fylker from today's 19 to a more managable 10. Then you could merge the smallest fylker like Finnmark, Sogn og Fjordane and Aust-Agder with their neighbours. It would drastically heighten the number of members from each fylke and thus make the process more democratic almost everywhere.
2. Get rid of the "mountains and fjords deserve a vote as well". Only actual human beings should be able to have a say in democratic processes. Thus Oslo should be just as valueble as Finnmark. In USA, the equivalent would be that Washington D.C. residents or voters in NYC should have just as much say in the electoral process as Sarah Palin and her Alaskan compatriots.
3. Reduce the threshold from today's 4% to only 1% or the very maximum 2%. In fact, the threshold shouldn't have to be any higher than 0.7% in fact, since there are as many as 167 parliamentarians in the Norwegian "Stortinget".

[Viewfromthenorth]

On the subject of bellwethers, today's Aftenposten has an article about Gjerdrum, which has come rather close to reflecting the national result. Unsurprisingly, it's a very middle-class suburb of Oslo with a strong rural element.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/Her-bor-valgprofetene-7304142.html#.Ui13gD-9LoY

[Tender Branson]

1. A new record of early voters has been set. This years number of 842,400 early voters - which make up almost 25% of the entire electorate, is a vast improvement from the past record sat in 2009, being about 180,000 votes higher than that one. This will make the early projections, to be released by NRK when the election halls close down at 9 o'clock CET tomorrow, even more reliable than ever before. New of the year is that NRK will no longer organize an election day poll, as analysis from the 2009 election showed that already then, with fewer early voters than this year, the early projections were in fact closer to the actual result than the various election day polls released by various media outlets.

Encouraging, but not necessarily meaning more turnout overall.

We had a state election in my state in May, where absentee ballot requests increased by 35% compared with the 2009 state election.

Yet overall turnout decreased from 74% to 71% in the election.

...

Still, I believe that this election will see slightly higher turnout than last time, because the Right seems to be energized for a possible government change.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Higher turnout is likely both due to the right being energized and due to the Labour Party mobilizing heavily at the last minute.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just finished a very pretty new county base map.

[eric82oslo]

Higher turnout is likely both due to the right being energized and due to the Labour Party mobilizing heavily at the last minute.

Also due to July 22 (youth turnout increased by 10 percentage points in 2011, I think from 50% to 60% or something like that), the fact that the High School Election showed the highest turnout ever recorded, the fact that it's easier than ever to cast a vote (due to the new e-election and a longer early voting period than ever before; 2 full months) and the fact that all major newspapers in Norway (about 20) have held an intense campaign for at least a month urging everyone to use their voice and vote (nothing like this has been tried out before, at least not on this massive scale & cooperated effort; they've also been clever using tons of humour and a professional PR company to get their message out).

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, Stoltenberg's Labour Party manages a surprise and defeats the Conservatives by 5-10% today and that the government comes within 5-10% as well (a win would be shocking).

The Stoltenberg-government has not really earned such a big defeat, like the polls are predicting: Unemployment in Norway is 3.5%, the oil fund for future pensions is worth 500 Bio. $ right now and tripled under the Stoltenberg-government, the average Norwegian earns ca. 6000$ a month, the social safety net works well.

Hopefully, Norway voters take a second look today and forget that these "small first-world problems" that the Conservatives and other opposition parties are talking about, are in fact what they are - small and meaningless in a global perspective - and give the Stoltenberg government another chance.

[DC Al Fine]

Hopefully, Stoltenberg's Labour Party manages a surprise and defeats the Conservatives by 5-10% today and that the government comes within 5-10% as well (a win would be shocking).

The Stoltenberg-government has not really earned such a big defeat, like the polls are predicting: Unemployment in Norway is 3.5%, the oil fund for future pensions is worth 500 Bio. $ right now and tripled under the Stoltenberg-government, the average Norwegian earns ca. 6000$ a month, the social safety net works well.

Hopefully, Norway voters take a second look today and forget that these "small first-world problems" that the Conservatives and other opposition parties are talking about, are in fact what they are - small and meaningless in a global perspective - and give the Stoltenberg government another chance.

They've been in power for what, 8 years? Government fatigue kicks in eventually.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully, Stoltenberg's Labour Party manages a surprise and defeats the Conservatives by 5-10% today and that the government comes within 5-10% as well (a win would be shocking).

The Stoltenberg-government has not really earned such a big defeat, like the polls are predicting: Unemployment in Norway is 3.5%, the oil fund for future pensions is worth 500 Bio. $ right now and tripled under the Stoltenberg-government, the average Norwegian earns ca. 6000$ a month, the social safety net works well.

Hopefully, Norway voters take a second look today and forget that these "small first-world problems" that the Conservatives and other opposition parties are talking about, are in fact what they are - small and meaningless in a global perspective - and give the Stoltenberg government another chance.

They've been in power for what, 8 years? Government fatigue kicks in eventually.

Yes, but that is no legitimate reason IMO for a change of horses.

Just because a government is boring, but still manages the state well, you just simply vote for Conservatives ...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Just because a government is boring, but still manages the state well, you just simply vote for Conservatives ...

If that was true shouldn't you vote for either SPÖ or ÖVP instead of the Greens, since they have also been objectively quite good in government if you look at employment and similar numbers?

[Tender Branson]

Just because a government is boring, but still manages the state well, you just simply vote for Conservatives ...

If that was true shouldn't you vote for either SPÖ or ÖVP instead of the Greens, since they have also been objectively quite good in government if you look at employment and similar numbers?

Not really, because I have never been a SPÖVP voter before, always Greens.

But it seems in Norway, people are actually leaving the AP for the Right !

And besides, SPÖVP have their own corruption problems too and the employment/economic picture is not nearly as rosy as they try to portray (bank bailouts, 100.000 unemployed more since Faymann took over, Alpine bankrupcy etc.) ...

Maybe Norway has some important problems too regarding the current government that I as an outsider don't know ... (so, please tell me).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Live stream from NRK, Norwegian National Television.

Works for us foreigners. Enjoy.

Maybe Norway has some important problems too regarding the current government that I as an outsider don't know ... (so, please tell me).

I'll leave that to the Norwegians to explain. They have the expertise knowledge after all.
I'll just say that voters sometimes can be cruel and irrational. After all the Swedish government hasn't done anything particularly wrong in the last two years either, and is objectively very successful, but has still gone from having their own majority in polls to barely breaking 40%.   

[Viewfromthenorth]

I understand it's easy to look at the Norwegian election and see it simply as a case of voters being bored, however:

- Arrogance among the governing parties
- A general sense that they are only managing, not governing, or presenting any visions whatsoever
- The peripheries feeling neglected at the same time as the cities feel they are being neglected as well
- As well as fatigue

Is going to be what defeats the government.