The following analysis was requested privately by an Atlasian citizen and PPP received the permission of ScottSurveys CEO Governor Scott to conduct it on his firm's data. ScottSurveys: Potential Northeast Gubernatorial Election #2
This poll was conducted over 3 days, from December 21st, 2012 to December 24th, 2012. All registered Northeastern voters were encouraged to participate in the survey. Voters could cast up to one vote. Votes could not be changed, but results were available for all to view. Percent values in parentheses next to total votes for each candidate are calculated by number of votes received by the candidate divided by the total number of votes multiplied by 100%.
Results
Total Voters- 15
Scott (Liberal-DE)(Incumbent)8 (53.3%)
Simfan34 (TPP-NY) 6 (40.0%)
Other
1 (6.7%)
Undecided
0 (0%)
Potential Candidates
Scott (Liberal-DE)(Incumbent)- Scott, the widely respected chairman of Atlasia's Liberal Party, has been blessed with a highly succesful and illustrious career in the politics of the Northeast region. Serving three full terms and another partial term in the region's Assembly before winning two terms as the region's Senator, he has accumulation much goodwill. Known for his chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he was elected Governor of the region in October and has partaken in a highly lauded tenure, during which he comforted the region in crises including Hurricane Sandy and the Sandy Hook massacre, passing legislation to rebuild and protect the Northeast along with numerous electoral and governmental reforms. He is more or less considered a mainstream member of the Atlasian centre-left. Governor Scott, also the owner and CEO of ScottSurveys, has affirmed his decision to seek re-election numerous times, receiving wide support across Atlasia. However, a minor controversy was created by the revelation by Atlasia's favorite tabloid (The Laborinth) revealed he had been considering running as part of a Presidential ticket with Mideast Federalist Governor Tmthforu94. He has since confirmed this rumor to be true, but he has stated he will not be running due to his commitment to The People of his region.
Simfan34 (TPP-NY)- As much as Governor Scott is known for his stability, outgoing At-Large Senator Simfan34 is known for being an interesting, albeit highly intelligent figure in Atlasian Politics. After a series of failed attempts to win election to the Northeast Assembly and the Regional Senate succeeding a fairly moderate tenure as Lieutenant Governor, Simfan34 finally won election to the Assembly in May, where he became a well-respected legislator, eventually rising to the position of Speaker. In November 2012, he ran for the At-Large Senate in a special election necessitated by two vacancies in the body. Running a widely-hailed campaign featuring many campaign events, concrete proposals, and support from the newly created TPP party, which he had recently joined, he squeaked past Pacific Governor Spamage to win a seat. His service in the Senate, while certainly active, has remained semi-controversial as a result of positions which have sometimes put him at odds with other members of the Senate, but he has remained a pioneer in Education Reform. Simfan34 is also well-known for his founding of the now-defunct Whig Party (which united much of the Atlasian Right), publishing of the Atlasian Post, and experience in the shipbuilding industry. After not seeking a full term in the December At-Large Elections, he has now created an Exploratory Committee to possibly seek the Governorship in February.
Analysis
This poll was the second in a pair conducted by ScottSurveys and represents a tightening from a previous result, which showed Senator Simfan trailing the Governor by 22 points (it should be noted that poll had higher response). While Scott remains in a comfortable 13.3 point lead and over 50%, it appears that he could actually now face a spirited race for re-election in the left-leaning Northeast Region. While a PPP analysis of Northeastern registered voters seems to show that an actual defeat for the Governor remains unlikely, a bullish TPP source stated in private that he sees Senator Simfan as having a strong "35%" chance in this race. Due to the previous strengths and commitment he has shown as a politician on the campaign trail, we agree he cannot be underestimated, although he is facing a fight on very difficult terrain. Well-connected Liberals have dismissed Simfan's chances at victory, although they have told PPP that the Governor respects Simfan's strengths as a statesman and would take a challenge very seriously. A supporter of TPP Senator suggested that while he'd offer his certain backing, he does not think the Senator would have any hope of victory, but thinks that he would receive at least 7 voters; a substantial number nonetheless. A prominent Laborite in the region told us that he would think Simfan's stumbling blocks are much too high and envisioned a clear victory for Scott, based on his personal popularity and the demographics of the Northeast.
After some internal mulling, PPP came to the conclusion that Governor Scott remains very much in the driver's seat for the upcoming election and would likely win a clear, but not overwhelming victory. Senator Simfan34 would make for a formidable challenger and create a stiff situation for the Governor, though it's unclear whether he will actually run and even unlikelier that he could actually win, despite his proven strengths in the past, especially against a well-liked incumbent in a region not particularly favorable to his ideological views. Despite this, we hesitate to count him out entirely.
There, we rank the aforementioned matchup as a
LIKELY LIBERAL HOLD.
Poll
