2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

Time for another "poll of polls", covering Allensbach (21.8.), FORSA (28.8.), infratest dimap  (29.8.), FG Wahlen (29.8.), EMNID (25.8.), INSA/TNS (26.8.):

CDU:        40.2 (40.3)
SPD:        24.8 (24.8 )
Grüne:     12.3 (12.8 )
Linke:        7.8  (8.0)
FDP:          5.7  (5.3)
Pirates       2.5  (3.2 )
AfD            3.0  (2.0)
Others       3.8  (3.6)

Time for the next "poll of polls" update, this time covering Allensbach (4.9.), FORSA (4.9.), infratest dimap  (5.9.), FG Wahlen (5.9.), EMNID (1.9.), and INSA/TNS (2.9.):

CDU:        40.0 (40.2)
SPD:        25.0 (24.8 )
Grüne:     11.2 (12.3)
Linke:        8.4  (7.8 )
FDP:          5.5  (5.7)
Pirates       2.6  (2.5)
AfD            3.2  (3.0)
Others        4.1 (3.8 )

45.5 black-yellow vs. 44.6 red-red-green, and AfD slowly getting traction.

We also have a few more state-level polls for the Federal election (2009 results in brackets):

Berlin (Forsa, 30.8.)
CDU:        27 (22.8 )
SPD:        19 (20.2)
Grüne:     19 (17.4)
Linke:      18 (20.2)
FDP:          5 (11.5)
Pirates       4   (3.4)
AfD           4    (--)
Others       4   (4.5)

Compared to the FORSA poll of June 31, Linke gain 3 points at the expense of SPD (-2) and Grüne (-1). CDU loses 3 points towards AfD (+2) and FDP (+1).  If that is representative of urban trends as a whole...

Rheinland-Pfalz (infratest dimap, 5.9.)
CDU:        45 (35.0)
SPD:        30 (23.8 )
Grüne:     10   (9.7)
Linke:       2    (9.4)
FDP:         5  (16.6)
Pirates      n.a  (1.9)
AfD           3     (--)
Others       5    (3.7)

Encouraging for the SPD, but not so for the Greens...
They also polled a hypothetical state election, which would have SPD at 34 (+4 compared to federal) and CDU and FDP each 2 points less than for the federal election.

Finally, a fresh infratest dimap poll on the Bavaria state elections:
CSU:        47 (43.4)
SPD:        21 (18.6)
Grüne:     11   (9.4)
Linke:       3    (4.3)
FDP:         3    (8.0)
FW           7   (10.2)
Others      8    (6.1)

Compared to their last poll from July 17, Grüne lose 4% (SPD +3, Others +1).
--
I seriously hope the Greens will finally get that it is pretty stupid to run the campaign together with the SPD (today had another joint Steinbrück- Göring-Eckhard event)!

[palandio]

Some numbers on Eastern Bavarian turnout in federal elections.
turnout in Niederbayern (Lower Bavaria) minus turnout in Bavaria as a whole:
1949: +2.3%
1953: +0.5%
1957: -0.8%
1961: +-0.0%
1965: -0.1%
1969: -1.9%
1972: -2.0%
1976: -2.0%
1980: -2.5%
1983: -2.5%
1987: -4.1%
1990: -5.5%
1994: -5.1%
1998: -4.7%
2002: -2.5%
2005: -4.2%
2009: -6.4%

I don't know why...

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria state elections poll:



Solid 48-38 absolute majority for the CSU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Bavaria state elections poll:



Solid 48-38 absolute majority for the CSU.

The same poll showed that 58% of the Bavarian voters (and even 31% of the CSU voters) oppose an absolute majority for the CSU. Which means that Bavaria is either going to vote schizophrenic or some of the CSU voters are going to give a tactical vote to either FDP or Free Voters.

[minionofmidas]

The polling trend over the campaign has certainly been for the Greens to lose and lose, to SPD and Left, and everything else being basically stable.

[ZuWo]

What a bizarre story!

German newspapers report that a man tried to blackmail Steinbrück for having illegally employed a Philippine cleaning lady 14 years ago. According to Spiegel, Steinbrück and his wife deny these allegations and have already informed the police.

[Tender Branson]

New NRW poll for the federal election:



2009 result:

33% CDU
29% SPD
15% FDP
10% Greens
  8% Left
  2% Pirates

Damn, Greens are now even starting to lose vs. 2009 ...

[Hash]

Why are the Greens starting to crash and burn?

[Tender Branson]

What a bizarre story!

German newspapers report that a man tried to blackmail Steinbrück for having illegally employed a Philippine cleaning lady 14 years ago. According to Spiegel, Steinbrück and his wife deny these allegations and have already informed the police.

Steinbrück = Romney ?

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/oct/18/mitt-romney/illegal-immigrants-did-lawn-care-mitt-romney

[Beezer]

Why are the Greens starting to crash and burn?

Turns out running on a platform of raising taxes isn't such a good idea after all...

[Franknburger]

Why are the Greens starting to crash and burn?

Turns out running on a platform of raising taxes isn't such a good idea after all...

The tax increase issue is part of the story. I am seeing the following main reasons:

1.) Essentially, the Greens have been trying to emulate the SPD. Aside from increasing the income tax rate for top earners, their positions include introducing legal minimum wages, controlling rent increases, extending pre-school child care etc. There also have been a number of joint events, including SPD leader Gabriel speaking at the Green party conference, and Steinbrück and Grüne leader Göring-Eckhard speaking together in public. At the same time, Grüne leadership, especially Trittin, have strongly declined any possibility of a black-green coalition.
The effects are two-fold: For once, the Greens have managed to sufficiently link themselves to Steinbrück to be affected by his low popularity. Secondly, those who prefer the above programme may as well vote SPD, while those who sympathize with the programme but feel it not being "left enough" go to Linke.

2.) The Greens have not been able (or willing) to make their original points in public. Energy policy is still a disaster, with some roots in the legislation that was originally enacted by the red-green government, and erratic amendment by both the grand coalition and black-yellow (pro-solar, anti-solar, pro-nuclear, anti-nuclear, failed privatisation of the power grid, etc.). However, Trittin, who stands for the original legislation, has not been willing to concede the original legislation's failures and come up with a reasonable reform proposal, allowing Steinbrück (a traditional pro-coal protagonist) to step in. Infrastructure is another disaster (Stuttgart 21, Berlin-Brandenburg airport, etc.), which the Greens have so far failed to exploit (presumably in order to not endanger the agreement found with the SPD). The same applies to the whole NSA affair (to which, of course, the SPD is linked as well from their grand coalition times).

3.) Tied into this is the overall election dynamics. A red-green majority, which still seemed possible in Spring, has become very unlikely by now. Black-green has been successfully killed by the Green leadership. For those that are not favouring black-yellow, this is leaving (a) a grand coalition and (b) red-red-green as possible outcomes to decide on. If you are favouring a grand coalition, you try to strengthen the SPD, hoping for a strong CDU loan vote to FDP that may have both major parties come out in similar strengths, as in 2005. When favouring red-red-green, you try to overcome the SPD blockade to such a coalition by strengthening the Linke.

4.) The Green leadership is becoming overaged. Trittin, now aged 60, has already been minister in the first Schroder cabinet in 1998. Most other party seniors such as Kretschmann, Roth,
Kühnast are as well close to or above 60. Karin Göring-Eckhard represents a somehow younger generation, but has not been able to gain much profile so far, a.o. because the Grüne slot in TV debates has always been taken by Trittin.
This is quite problematic for a party that has traditionally been gaining from the youth vote. Defection to the Pirates, but also other smaller parties like, e.g., "Die PARTEI" (the German variant of Italy's 5-stars movement) could be substantial (note the small but steady increase in the "others", non Pirate and non-AfD vote in the polls).

5.) Finally, the whole campaign has been crappy. Aside from their b&w poster series, which mostly ran on the internet only, posters were a disaster (go back a few pages on this thread for an extensive discussion). The party base appears to have become complacent - here in the northern Hamburg periphery, which is a traditional Green stronghold, e.g., election posters have only started to appear a few days ago. I miss any signs of professional PR/media work, in contrast to the CDU ("Steinbrück gaffes") but also the SPD.  

[Middle-aged Europe]

In my opinion, the Greens had to deal with a couple of negative PR events and they were either unable to deal with it in an effective manner and/or they were were underestimating of how much of an negative impact it would have.

None of these events were objectively really bad. But they didn't know how to respond in the right way.

Tax raises: The tax platform of the Greens would actually lead to tax decreases for 90% of the population as have several independent "fact checks" have shown. The problem is how to communicate why some tax raises will lead to 90% of the population paying fewer taxes. You simply can't, because there's almost no way how to frame "tax increase" positively.

Pedophilia: All of the stuff had happened back in the 1980s and 90% of it had been already out in the open for a long time. It just wasn't common knowledge because nobody had used it (to that extent) as a campaign issue up until now. Again, the Greens were hit by it totally unprepared and they didn't really know how to handle it in public communication. In all likelihood, you can't really handle it anyway, because pedophilia is a red-button issue.

Veggie-Day: The Greens are supporting the introduction of a meat-free day in public cantinas. Again, this shouldn't be much of a problem because Germany's Agriculture Ministry (currently led by the CSU) is already supportung and funding Veggie-Day campaigns in places like Hanover. The Greens don't support anything here which isn't already happening. But again, the Green leadership was overwhelmed by the "Greens want to ban your meat" accusations and didn't know how to deal with it in an effective manner.

[minionofmidas]

That reminds me of 1998.

Of course, the study commission on the pedophilia thing's result is basically "we got the wrong party - that was the FDP".

There's other, underlying factors of course. There's a lot of only vaguely disaffected center-right middle-class ever-voters who'll vote SPD or Greens in a second-order (state, local) election but are coming home federally - and a lot of them told pollsters they would vote Green federally post-Fukushima. Meanwhile the Greens aren't attracting all that many of those people only now tuning in.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Addendum: Maybe the main problem of the Greens was and is a certain underlying naivete when it comes to the mechanisms of an election campaign.

I think the initial reaction to the pedophilia stuff must have been something along the lines: "This is just a smear campaign with old stories from the 80s, what matters are the issues and the voters are of course going to realize that..."

It may true that it is a smear campaign with old stories from the 80s, but its a fundamental mistake to assume that it won't have any effect on the voters just because of that. They assume that the average voter works and thinks like a well-informed, emotionally detached political analyst or scientist or something.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-08/merkel-says-danger-spd-may-break-vow-and-ally-with-left-party.html

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there’s a danger that the opposition Social Democrats and the Greens may break a pledge not to ally with the anti-capitalist Left Party in a bid to take power.

-----------------
Good line of attack since it seems that polls all mostly want a Merkel led government but support for a CDU/CSU/SPD government seems to outnumber a CDU/CSU/FDP government.  So I guess one week before the election Merkel is coming out and saying that if you vote for a CDU/CSU/SPD  government by voting for SPD you could end up with SPD/Green/Left government.

[jaichind]

Something occurred to me about this election.  It seems that the polls seems to show a neck-to-neck race between CDU/CSU/FDP and SPD/Green/Left with the understanding that if SDP/Green/Left comes out ahead then Merkel will have to go for a Grand Alliance.  If so its it not possible that CDU/CSU/FDP vote share falls below  SPD/Green/Left but because of overhang seats for CSU/CSU,  CDU/CSU/FDP trumps SPD/Green/Left in terms of seats.  Of course this is assuming that AfD does not cross 5%.  It seems that there is a reasonable chance this might happen since the CDU/CSU lead over SPD seems significant and tactical voting by FDP and AfD voters for CDU/CSU on the first ballot is likely to occur.   How likely do people on this thread think it is likely to occur.

[Franknburger]

Something occurred to me about this election.  It seems that the polls seems to show a neck-to-neck race between CDU/CSU/FDP and SPD/Green/Left with the understanding that if SDP/Green/Left comes out ahead then Merkel will have to go for a Grand Alliance.  If so its it not possible that CDU/CSU/FDP vote share falls below  SPD/Green/Left but because of overhang seats for CSU/CSU,  CDU/CSU/FDP trumps SPD/Green/Left in terms of seats.  Of course this is assuming that AfD does not cross 5%.  It seems that there is a reasonable chance this might happen since the CDU/CSU lead over SPD seems significant and tactical voting by FDP and AfD voters for CDU/CSU on the first ballot is likely to occur.   How likely do people on this thread think it is likely to occur.

The whole commie-scare stuff is so old - we had it in each election since 1990, and it never worked. Essentially, those people you can scare off with it are anyway voting CDU. Moreover, the Linke may be fiscally irresponsible, but is definitely not anti-capitalist. Don't forget as well that the largest nationalisation of the last fifty years, namely taking over several major banks, occurred under Merkel's rule (grand coalition).

As to the overhang seats-they have been declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court (violating the principle of equal elections), so the reformed election law provides for full compensation. The only open question in this respect is how many additional compensation seats, in addition to the regular 598, the new parliament will include. The latest prediction is for 634 seats in total.

In fact, it is a bit more complicated:
1. FPTP seats are credited directly to each party.
2. (for calculation purposes only:) All regular seats are distributed proportionally at state level according to Ste. League.[ This is the stage where, in smaller states, there still may be a kind of overhang. In Bremen (5 regular seats), e.g. a party may need close to 20% to gain a seat (in 2009, both FDP and Linke, while each getting almost 10%, failed to win a seat there). In fact, the FDP is unlikely to gain any seat in the five smallest states.] If a party has won more FPTP seats in a state than she would get according to proportional distribution, her seat number is increased accordingly.
3. (for calculation purposes only:) For each party, the seat numbers per state are added up to a federal total, the so-called minimum seat number.
4. The total seat number is raised to the number required so that each party gets at least its minimum seat number when proportionally distributing the federal vote according to Ste.  League (there is a formula for that somewhere, but I am too lazy to look it up right now).
5. Federal party seats calculated in step 4 are allocated to states according to Ste. League, based on the party votes received in each state (here, turnout comes in play!). FPTP seats are always allocated to the state where they were won, eventually reducing the number of seats available for proportional distribution among the remaining states.

At current polling, and assuming neither Pirates nor AfD will surpass the 5% threshold, the following overhang mandates appear likely:

Brandenburg SPD up to 2 (6-8 FPTP, current polling has them at 6 PV)
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: CDU 1 - set to gain all 6 FPTP seats, but only entitlement for 5 PV seats.
Saarland CDU 1 - set to gain all 4 FPTP seats, but only entitlement for 3 PV seats.
Sachsen-Anhalt CDU 1 - set to gain all 9 FPTP seats, but only entitlement for 8 PV seats.
Thuringia CDU 1 - set to gain all 9 FPTP seats, but only entitlement for 8 PV seats.

All other states are either having the CDU/CSU too close to 50% of the five-party vote (Bavaria, Baden-Würtemberg, Saxony, Rheinland-Pfalz), or are too dispersed in terms of likely FPTP winners (NRW, Hesse, Berlin, Lower Saxony). The 2005 decrease in Hamburg and Bremen constituencies, combined with strong Grüne/ Linke showing, should deny the SPD their traditional overhang mandates there.

Schleswig-Holstein, which has not been polled federally since the last election, is some kind of a wildcard (state level/ local elections are not the best indicator here due to the ballot presence of the Danish minority party SSW). I personally expect heavy CDU losses here (see my thread on this spring's local elections), which, combined with effective gerrymandering by our previous black-yellow state government, may give another overhang mandate to the CDU.

[peterould]

Hi folks,

Sorry to jump in on an already busy forum.

Can anyone point me to an accurate description of the Electoral System that will be used next weekend. Have any of the proposed changes been introduced? What are the total number of seats for each Land? That kind of thing.

Thanks in advance!

Update - Sorry, just noticed that someone right above me has answered most of my questions!

[Yeahsayyeah]

I think Syria might be some hidden issue in the last weeks damaging the Greens. "True pacifists" defecting to the Left Party because they don't trust the Greens on war-and-peace-issues anymore and more conservative bourgeois types seeing them still "unreliable" in foreign politics (The party was almost disrupted over Kosovo in 1998/99).

The Green campaign never got traction this time. Maybe they overestimated the possible energization of their participative elements (members choosing the top candidates and so called "key projects" as parts of their electoral platform). The second actually seemed to have no impact at all. I am not clear weither the first helped (replacing Claudia Roth by Karin Göring-Eckart who was very pro Agenda 2010 back then and does not fit the main campaign theme of social justice very well.

The climate is also quite hostile to environmental policies this time. Nuclear energy has ceased to be a mobilizing issue with Merkel's CDU now backing a nuclear power phase out after their 180 degree turn caused by Fukushima) and the and the issue of nuclear power repository is down due to a new started moderation process.
On the other hands the Greens are perceived as responsible for high electric energy costs (of course, there are side effects of the Renewable Energy Act but they are only part of the story). And the recommendation of a veggie day did not help either, but I think the people maybe scared by this don't vote Green, anyway. (This is imho also true for the "The Greens are a bunch of child molesters!" crowd).

Because of the political climate I think switching to a "environmental policies first" platform would not have helped. The "rising taxes" meme did'nt help either (although they actually want to decrease taxes for most of the people). Honesty isn't rewarded by voters, as you can see here. *g*

The Greens had a desideration for rebranding their social policies (european meaning). Most of the party still wants to be left wing and the perception of being the party for "latte machiato mothers" only waiting for the right time to flip to the CDU did severely hurt their self-conception, even more after the financial crash of 2008/09. Emphasizing social policies (universal health care, minimum wage, tax the rich) fit the political climate very well then and it was a long term strategy. It did not work out this election due to a poor campaign (wrong female top candidate, dull spots and posters, not that convincing answers to many campaign issues), an unfavourable political climate (The CDU/FDP administration was succesfull in painting the image that "Germany is well of due to superhero Merkel and the European crisis does not need to bother us at all for she has the right strategy to lead us through it". Well, it's their own fault that the Green's didn't even try to find neither an accurate answer to that nor to emphasize a different strategy to deal with the European economical crisis. One commentary at Spiegel Online today states this would have been a possible way to give them a unique selling point as the justice party, though I am not sure this would have worked out in good election results, either.
And, last but not least,  the lack of a real option to get in power after the election does not help them at all. (Of course, this will be a problem as long as red-green rejects the Left Party).

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think Syria might be some hidden issue in the last weeks damaging the Greens. "True pacifists" defecting to the Left Party because they don't trust the Greens on war-and-peace-issues anymore and more conservative bourgeois types seeing them still "unreliable" in foreign politics (The party was almost disrupted over Kosovo in 1998/99).

I don't think so... anyone who had a beef with the Green Party over Kosovo or Afghanistan has already left back then. Any re-alignment over these issues happened already in 1999-2001. Anyone who remained with the party isn't that pacifistic anyway (except Ströbele). Not that the Greens are pro-military strike with regards to Syria anyway.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Something occurred to me about this election.  It seems that the polls seems to show a neck-to-neck race between CDU/CSU/FDP and SPD/Green/Left with the understanding that if SDP/Green/Left comes out ahead then Merkel will have to go for a Grand Alliance.  If so its it not possible that CDU/CSU/FDP vote share falls below  SPD/Green/Left but because of overhang seats for CSU/CSU,  CDU/CSU/FDP trumps SPD/Green/Left in terms of seats.  Of course this is assuming that AfD does not cross 5%.  It seems that there is a reasonable chance this might happen since the CDU/CSU lead over SPD seems significant and tactical voting by FDP and AfD voters for CDU/CSU on the first ballot is likely to occur.   How likely do people on this thread think it is likely to occur.

The whole commie-scare stuff is so old - we had it in each election since 1990, and it never worked. Essentially, those people you can scare off with it are anyway voting CDU. Moreover, the Linke may be fiscally irresponsible, but is definitely not anti-capitalist. Don't forget as well that the largest nationalisation of the last fifty years, namely taking over several major banks, occurred under Merkel's rule (grand coalition).

Well, the "beware of Red-Red-Green!" stuff is aimed at mobilizing CDU/FDP core voters anyway. Recently, there were some reports that the CDU is concerned that CDU voters are assuming that the election is already decided and will stay home on election day as a result.

[Yeahsayyeah]

@Old Europe: My impression ist that members and voters of the party (not so much rank and file) is still quite anti-militaristic to pacifist. I don't know if Syria is the issue here (so I called it "hidden issue") but I tried to find something which would explain the late Linke surge and the Green decrease at the same time. Of course this doesn't need to be a direct voter stream, but if so, what else could explain such a stream at this point of the campaign?

As the Greens seem to have a very reliant core voter base which votes by conviction it could be that the average Green voter just decided earlier and now the former undecided break heavyly against them.

On the other heand infratest had some polls in the last weeks were state and federal elections were polled. Greens were always higher in the state polls (up to 4 percent). So this must be due to federal issues or the campaign.

[Middle-aged Europe]

@Old Europe: My impression ist that members and voters of the party (not so much rank and file) is still quite anti-militaristic to pacifist. I don't know if Syria is the issue here (so I called it "hidden issue") but I tried to find something which would explain the late Linke surge and the Green decrease at the same time. Of course this doesn't need to be a direct voter stream, but if so, what else could explain such a stream at this point of the campaign?

Even if this is the case, the fact remains that the Green leadership isn't supporting military intervention in Syria and it isn't much of an campaign issue overall... because nobody is supporting war in Syria, not even the CDU. In the latest Emnid poll, the Left even dropped by a percentage point again.

[jaichind]

Franknburger, Thanks a bunch for your info on overhand seats.  That was very useful for me to learn.

As for the Linke scare tactics by Merkel I agree that CDU/CSU does it every election but I would think given how close CDU/CSU/FDP vs SPD/Green/Linke this might have an affect on the leaning SPD/pro-Schroeder wing voter.  This would be the group of voters that would be for SPD but also for a CDU/CSU/SPD government.  I would imagin this is the same group that would be for a SPD/FDP government in 1998 if that were possible.  If this bloc of possible SPD voter does not exist then why should SPD just come out in favor of a SPD/Green/Linke government in case a SPD/Green majority is not possible.  The fact it does not might be for historical reasons but it might be for reasons that SPD coming out with might lose votes. 

[Franknburger]

As for the Linke scare tactics by Merkel I agree that CDU/CSU does it every election but I would think given how close CDU/CSU/FDP vs SPD/Green/Linke this might have an affect on the leaning SPD/pro-Schroeder wing voter.  This would be the group of voters that would be for SPD but also for a CDU/CSU/SPD government.  I would imagin this is the same group that would be for a SPD/FDP government in 1998 if that were possible.  If this bloc of possible SPD voter does not exist then why should SPD just come out in favor of a SPD/Green/Linke government in case a SPD/Green majority is not possible.  The fact it does not might be for historical reasons but it might be for reasons that SPD coming out with might lose votes. 

I don't think there is much support for the grand coalition among SPD voters (of whom there aren't that many at the moment, anyway). FG Wahlen (ZDF) had 29% preferring a grand coalition, 18% preferring black-yellow, which is a total of 47% and in the range of combined CDU-FDP support.

Why could a grand coalition be preferred by most CDU voters? First of all, it worked surprisingly well in 2005-2009, while black-yellow has been quite a disaster. Secondly, on certain issues, most notably security vs. civil rights, but also health, housing rents, even minimum wage, CDU and SPD are much closer to each other than CDU and FPD. Thirdly, a reasonable part of CDU leaners are in fact not supporting the party, but Angela Merkel,  and might agree with a good part of the SPD's agenda (look at my comparison of federal and state election polling a few pages back, which shows that the federal CDU is regularly overpolling the state level CDU by some 3-4%, while it is the opposite for the SPD).

Under this scenario, it actually makes sense for the SPD to rule out red-red-green, hoping for some "Merkel fans" to switch back to the SPD in order to prevent four more years of black-yellow. As soon as these voters realise they might in fact support red-red-green, they are lost for the SPD.