2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

BTW, the ZDF live-stream does not work abroad, at least not here.

Phoenix works.

Not that I need it anyway, because I have all of those channels on my cable-TV in HD.

[Diouf]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10269105/German-anti-euro-party-attacked-as-election-campaign-hots-up.html

AfD leader and other high-standing member of the party assaulted by "hooded activists". These so-called anti-fascists are a disgrace; if anything they are themselves quite close to fascism. We often have the "pleasure" of bunches of these hooded German thugs in Denmark when the extreme left wants to protest something; this was the case at the 1 May demonstrations this year and several other times when right-wing groups are organising demonstrations and/or meetings.

[Tender Branson]

ARD live stream works abroad too:

http://live.daserste.de/int/index.html#programm

Merkel vs. Steinbrück debate starts in ca. 1 hour.

[Oak Hills]

ARD live stream works abroad too:

http://live.daserste.de/int/index.html#programm

Merkel vs. Steinbrück debate starts in ca. 1 hour.

It works here.

[Tender Branson]

As expected Steinbrück opens the debate in a robotic way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Somewhat surprisingly, Stefan Raab turns out to be the most aggressive of the moderators. So far, it's more of a Merkel/Raab debate rather than a Merkel/Steinbrück debate.

It's also a bit silly that Merkel is wearing a Black-Red-Gold necklace.

[Tender Branson]

Moderator to Steinbrück: ''75% of Germans are happy with the way things are going for them and in the county. For you, frankly, that sucks."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Somebody was fast, twitter account mocking Merkel's necklace:

https://twitter.com/schlandkette

[Tender Branson]

Raab vs. Steinbrück is pretty good.

[Tender Branson]

Somebody was fast, twitter account mocking Merkel's necklace:

https://twitter.com/schlandkette

Whats the big deal about it ?

US politicians for example wear pins with the US flag all the time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Whats the big deal about it ?

US politicians for example wear pins with the US flag all the time.

It looks silly.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thank god it's over!

[Franknburger]

ARD half-time poll - Who was more convincing: 44 Merkel, 43 Steinbrück. Undecided lean Steinbrück.

[Tender Branson]

Post-debate poll shows Merkel winning the first half of the debate by 1%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No effect then.

[ZuWo]

According to ARD polling, Steinbrück "wins" the debate by 49-44%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BILD puts it best:



The most remarkable things in the debate were co-moderator Stefan Raab and Merkel's necklace.

[Franknburger]

According to ARD polling, Steinbrück "wins" the debate by 49-44%.

And, maybe more importantly, Steinbrück performed better than expected for 60%. He also leads with respect to "better arguments", but lost the sympathy question.

[You kip if you want to...]

Low expectations. See: Obama/Romney 1st debate.

[ZuWo]

ZDF says Merkel has won by 40-33%.

[Franknburger]

Forsa (RTL) has Merkel 44 - Steinbrück 43, which is pretty much a tie.

Nevertheless, looking at the previous polling, with some 60-30 Merkel preference, and their parties' current averages, I would say the debate went to Steinbrück.

Won't move much, however. According to the ARD poll, only 10% see their vote affected (some 40% said it enforced their decision, close to 50% see no impact).  Might be 1-2 points SPD gain in the end, insufficient to pull it out, but maybe enough to refuse another black-yellow majority.

Tomorrow's Green-FDP-Linke debate (20:15 CET summer time, ARD, live stream should be available) might actually be more interesting. The Greens need to stop their downward trend and defection of western voters to the Linke.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm betting 50 Euros that Brüderle is going to mention "Red-Red-Green" at least fifteen times in tomorrow's debate.

[RogueBeaver]

Le Monde concurs with the polls: a draw. Am I the only one surprised that Steinbruck didn't gaffe? Then again, he's basically run out of demographics to offend.

[Franknburger]

Le Monde concurs with the polls: a draw. Am I the only one surprised that Steinbruck didn't gaffe? Then again, he's basically run out of demographics to offend.

Oh, not quite. Tonight it was the public servants, who got pension cuts announced by Steinbrück, and Merkel was quick to speak about the policemen and fire-fighters in public service (she initially also included teachers as hard-working, underpaid public servants before she realised that German teachers are anything but underpaid in international comparison).

Demographically, it was mostly a debate on pensioners' votes. Steinbrück was quite good in addressing concerns of single parents and also of health-service workers, Merkel had her 'policemen moment', but I don't recall any of the two ever having used the word "middle class".

German commentators agreed that Merkel had her weakest point when it came to the NSA affair, where she acted anything but convincingly. Steinbrück was also good in pointing out that overdue reforms, especially as concerns health insurance and old-age care, had not been tackled over the last four years. Quite a problem for Merkel, as this concerns one of the FDP resorts, which she could neither criticise openly, nor defend (since there is nothing defendable on the health minister's performance).

[Tender Branson]

The debate was roughly Obama vs. Romney's 1st debate - just not as clear.

Here are some charts from ARD's pollster:

"Who did you find more convincing in the debate ?"



"Who would you vote for Chancellor ? (before the debate, after the debate)"



We'll see how this translates into the next election polls, but they said that Steinmeier had similar results in the 2009 debate and then the SPD got the lowest result ever.