2013 Elections in Germany

[ERvND]

So what you're actually saying is that you want to see FPTP introduced in Germany.

Yes, that's indeed what I propose. As long as you have proportional representation, the establishment of splinter groups is encouraged. But install FPTP and you'll see how fast SPD, Greens and Pirates would overcome their mutual reservations.

Of course, the introduction of a FPTP system in Germany is something we will never see. The Grand coalition should have introduced it in the 60s. Now, it's too late, and discussing it would really be pointless.

[You kip if you want to...]

So what you're actually saying is that you want to see FPTP introduced in Germany.

Yes, that's indeed what I propose. As long as you have proportional representation, the establishment of splinter groups is encouraged. But install FPTP and you'll see how fast SPD, Greens and Pirates would overcome their mutual reservations.

Um, no.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

[Supersonic]

So what you're actually saying is that you want to see FPTP introduced in Germany.

Yes, that's indeed what I propose. As long as you have proportional representation, the establishment of splinter groups is encouraged. But install FPTP and you'll see how fast SPD, Greens and Pirates would overcome their mutual reservations.

Um, no.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

What an excellent reason in favour.

[MaxQue]

So what you're actually saying is that you want to see FPTP introduced in Germany.

Yes, that's indeed what I propose. As long as you have proportional representation, the establishment of splinter groups is encouraged. But install FPTP and you'll see how fast SPD, Greens and Pirates would overcome their mutual reservations.

Of course, the introduction of a FPTP system in Germany is something we will never see. The Grand coalition should have introduced it in the 60s. Now, it's too late, and discussing it would really be pointless.

And you're the very reason why SPD is in decline. People having silly hopes of hegemony.

[You kip if you want to...]

Angela Merkel is popular.

She'd be reelected Chancellor under any electoral system and she'd be reelected even if the SPD and the Greens merged tomorrow.

That's politics. Sometimes your side loses and if you're on the German left, a lot of the time your side loses.

[Tender Branson]

A couple of "election ?" posters from the NPD:



"Money for the [German] grandma, instead of Sinti & Roma."

"Asylum home ? No, thanks. Today we are tolerant, tomorrow we are strangers within our own country."



"Secure living. Stop the asylum-flood."

"Maria, instead of Scharia."

"Fighting crime. Secure the borders !"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/right-wing-protests-over-asylum-shelter-in-berlin-a-917832.html

[Tender Branson]

Where can I find the German "Wahlkabine" ?

[ZuWo]

CDU and SPD have released their official television ads, which will be aired on ARD and ZDF during the next weeks. As expected, the CDU ad solely focuses on Merkel, her popularity and a couple of feel-good platitudes while the Social Democrats desperately try to come across as the party for social justice. Not surprisingly, Steinbrück doesn't play a major role in their ad.

Both ads can be watched here.

[minionofmidas]

Where can I find the German "Wahlkabine" ?

http://www.wahl-o-mat.de/bayern2013

Not weighting questions for relevance, I got a Pirate-Left-Green three way tie at 78.9%!
SPD 63.2%
NPD 51.3% (lol)
FW 50.0%
FDP 47.4%
CSU 42.1%

Federal one not yet online, due to be released on the 29th.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

http://www.wahl-o-mat.de/bayern2013

FDP 73,3 %
PIRATEN 68,9 %
SPD 66,7 %
DIE LINKE 66,7 %
GRÜNE 64,4 %
FREIE WÄHLER 60 %
CSU 51,1 %
NPD 38,9 %

Except for the FDP (lol) this about matches up with what I would have guessed.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.titanic-magazin.de/cdu-wahlplakat-generator/

[Leftbehind]

At the mercy of Google translate, and not bothering to weight, I got:

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[ERvND]

And you're the very reason why SPD is in decline.

Ok, I admit it. It's been me the whole time. Next, I'll ruin the Greens.

But seriously, the underlying reason for the SPD's decline is that the very idea of Social Democracy has come to an end. It achieved most of its objectives in the 1970s, and this was when its downfall began. The short boom of the 1990s was no longer fueled by social democratic, but by neoliberal ideas.

Today, there is nobody left who'd vote for a social democratic party: The industrial working class has almost diappeared; the welfare dependent proletarians have stopped voting at all; the rich vote conservative or liberal, and if they are culturally leftist, they vote green.

That's why I'd prefer a merger into a broader, more loosely defined "left" movement, structurally akin to the American Democrats. On it's own, the SPD will soon vanish, that's a given.

[You kip if you want to...]

And you're the very reason why SPD is in decline.

Ok, I admit it. It's been me the whole time. Next, I'll ruin the Greens.

But seriously, the underlying reason for the SPD's decline is that the very idea of Social Democracy has come to an end. It achieved most of its objectives in the 1970s, and this was when its downfall began. The short boom of the 1990s was no longer fueled by social democratic, but by neoliberal ideas.

Today, there is nobody left who'd vote for a social democratic party: The industrial working class has almost diappeared; the welfare dependent proletarians have stopped voting at all; the rich vote conservative or liberal, and if they are culturally leftist, they vote green.

That's why I'd prefer a merger into a broader, more loosely defined "left" movement, structurally akin to the American Democrats. On it's own, the SPD will soon vanish, that's a given.

Unlikely, they'll just change to suit the times, as all large parties do.

[Leftbehind]

the welfare dependent proletarians have stopped voting at all

Could that possibly be because social democrats have largely washed their hands of them? It's funny, some of social democrats most loyal defenders seem to have absolutely no faith in social democracy, or in your case seem to think it's redundant now it's achieved all of its goals (I'm astounded by that claim - I thought it was far more ambitious than the bog-standard liberalism it's reverted to).

[ERvND]

Unlikely, they'll just change to suit the times, as all large parties do.

The neoliberal re-orientation ("third way", "Agenda 2010" in Germany) was such an attempt to suit the times. We see the results.

Maybe the SPD will survive as a special interest party for specific social groups (though I can't think of any right now), but its days as a major party are clearly over. Retaining more than 5% of the vote nationwide will be seen as a success in 20 to 25 years' time.

[Franknburger]

A new poll on an election that is a bit less clear in outcome than the Federal one - Hesse state, held together with the federal election (infratest dimap, 21.08., 2009 in brackets):

CDU         39 (37.2)
SPD         31 (23.7)
Grüne      14 (13.7)
FDP           5 (16.2)
Linke         4  (5.4)
Others       7  (3.7)

45 red-green vs. 44 black-yellow (though, if Linke makes it in, possibly another grand coalition).

There is a lot of additional findings available at
http://www.hr-online.de/website/specials/landtagswahl-hessen/index.jsp?rubrik=78229&key=mediathek_49409049&type=g&xtcr=1&xtmc=Hessentrend%20August , which I would love to publish here, but I don't get the diagrams embedded (Tender, you appear to be quite good at this - want to give it a try?)

Anyway, some key results:

Time for change?  53% yes

Next government should be led by:
SPD   51%
CDU  39%

Party ratings (% very content & content):
Grüne     48%
CDU       46%
SPD        42%
FDP        20%
Linke      12%  
[This is quite a surprise - 48% green approval, yet they are losing compared to previous state polls]

Most important issues for Hesse:
Education                 37%
Labour market          22%
Family/ child care      12%
Transport                 12%
Social inequality        10%
Energy                       8%

Vote will be determined by
State issues              48%
Federal issues           37%
Both equally             13%

And, as a bonus, here the latest FPTP map from http://www.election.de

Standard scaling - safe, likely, lean. Blue is CDU, red is SPD. Not much surprise here: CDU picks up the Catholic Fulda area in the East-central corner, and most of the Frankfurt suburbs. SPD takes Protestant northern Hesse, and has a slight advantage in the industrialised areas to the south-west of Frankfurt.

[ERvND]

Could that possibly be because social democrats have largely washed their hands of them?

Yes. This was, of course, part of their attempt to win over middle-class voters via the "third way". There was some success in it initially, but ultimately, this strategy failed big time. The very poor / welfare dependent classes abandoned the SPD completely, whereas the middle class did not really catch on. The situation right now is rather funny: While large parts of society hate the SPD because of its welfare cuts, the middle class still tends to percieve it as the party of the lazy, the moochers and the welfare recipients (which it has, under all historic circumstances, never been).  

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It's quite simple, actually: Social Democracy has always been a skilled labour and lower middle class movement. It promised to create a society in which the members of these classes should, by hard work and education, be able to achieve some prosperity. During the 1960s and 1970s, they effectively created this society. Education opportunities increased vastly, the classes got more permeable, many of their core supporters gained some wealth.

In consequence, exactly those people who had benefitted the most from Social Democracy began to turn against it. Being rather successfull, but in an uncertain economic environment (the 70s and 80s), they suddenly had nothing more to win - but a lot to lose. Now hoping to stop social upward mobility, they turned to conservatism and neoliberalism. Meanwhile, the remaining lower classes were shaken off so badly that they lost all hope of social advancement.

So it's not by accident that the last social group that still hopes to climb the social ladder - naturalized foreigners, especially Turks - is also the last group that still predominantly supports the SPD. All others are either too rich or too poor to be appealed by Social Democracy.  

[Hans-im-Glück]

My result for the Wahl-o-mat (Bavaria)

DIE LINKE 86 %
GRÜNE     78 %
PIRATEN   77 %
SPD          70 %
FDP          55 %
FREIE WÄHLER   55 %
NPD         42 %
CSU         42 %

[Tender Branson]

I got ca. 80% Greens, 75% SPD, 70% Pirates, 65% FW - with the CSU last (NPD actually not last - maybe that's because they have some "reasonable" (left) positions on social issues).

I found the dancing nights question funny.

[minionofmidas]

the welfare dependent proletarians have stopped voting at all

Could that possibly be because social democrats have largely washed their hands of them? It's funny, some of social democrats most loyal defenders seem to have absolutely no faith in social democracy, or in your case seem to think it's redundant now it's achieved all of its goals (I'm astounded by that claim - I thought it was far more ambitious than the bog-standard liberalism it's reverted to).

Many of the 60s educated moderate Social Democrats do or did think so; some reacted downright offended in the 90s when the existence of "equality of opportunity" was denied by young folks. I've met them, among my teachers among others.
Of course, virtually all of the achievements re equality of the 60s and early 70s has been dismantled over the past twenty years. We probably have to thank Kohl's congenital inertia it didn't happen sooner and faster (and as a result, have to thank Kohl's congenital inertia for our relative economic prosperity right now. And thus for Merkel's reelection. )

[minionofmidas]

if Linke makes it in, possibly another grand coalition).

No.

The state CDU is about as reliable and as desirable a coalition partner to the state SPD as most state NPDs.

Everyone's being coy about it and no one's ruling out anything, but the likeliest outcome is the NRW model, the second likeliest is that Janine Wissler becomes the first Communist minister in West Germany since the Berlin blockade, and the one the Left say they fear (unrealistically imho) is black-green, not a grand coalition.
The thing is that the government parties and SPD/Greens (statewide personnel) have essentially not spoken to each other once since 2009.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With general regards to one line of discussion, as recently as 2005, the SPD polled 34% across Germany and as recently as 1998 managed 41%. And whatever may have changed irrevocably since, and whatever longterm factors may well (and certainly actually do)* lurk around, it is pathetic to blame the party's current lousy (federal) electoral situation entirely on things that are 'inevitable' or in some other way totally out of their control.

_{*And certainly do... but those in Germany are not quite the same as those in Austria or Britain or wherever, because the postwar SPD was never quite so utterly dependent on working class voters living in working class communities.}

[ERvND]

With general regards to one line of discussion, as recently as 2005, the SPD polled 34% across Germany and as recently as 1998 managed 41%. And whatever may have changed irrevocably since, and whatever longterm factors may well (and certainly actually do)* lurk around, it is pathetic to blame the party's current lousy (federal) electoral situation entirely on things that are 'inevitable' or in some other way totally out of their control.

1998, 2002 and 2005 showed how much impact a popular leader and good campaigner (in this case, Schröder) can have. No doubt, such things can and will happen again. The general trend, however, remains intact. Just take a look at the following chart (SPD trendline by me). It shows that the SPD has been in a more or less steady decline since 1972. The seven-year-interval between 1998 and 2005 constitutes a deviation, after which the vote share reverted back to the trendline. So, the 23% result in 2009 was actually no shocking, outrageous aberration, but completely in line with a trend that's been going on for over 40 years now.

[minionofmidas]

So which elections did you actually use for the trendline? Only 72 to 90 presumably, since even including 1994 would presumably destroy the neatness of the graph?
And the fact that East Germans have been entitled to vote since 1990? It ever crossed your mind? Not to mention this being based on percentage of votes cast rather than eligible voters?