MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Vosem]

I also don't think Brown will run (if he was going to, I think he would've already announced), but it's absurd to say he wouldn't start off the instant, heavy front-runner. And I really don't see how any of the Democrats would beat him, as first they would have to get through a very competitive primary, none of them has been elected statewide before, and all three have obvious problems (Markey apparently lives in Maryland; Capuano is outsider-y and apparently has difficulty fundraising; and much of the MADP hates Lynch for voting against Obamacare) that would prevent them from mopping up the Dem-leaning undecideds. Without winning them -- by a significant margin, too -- I doubt any Democrat can defeat Brown. Obviously, Brown isn't going to beat Markey by 18 points, but I don't see how Markey can possibly defeat Brown. Never even mind the other two.

[RogueBeaver]

1 down, 2 to go. If Capuano and/or Downing jump in, could well be a Donk version of the WI-Sen Pub primary.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm sticking with my bold prediction--that Brown sits this one out, and Weld tilts at this windmill.

I invite him, with relative seriousness, to try. Weld was a decent governor, but until very recently hadn't lived in Massachusetts for quite some time (granted, Markey has a similar problem, but Markey has always represented Massachusetts and never tried to run for governor of another state). The state has I think passed him by.

[tmthforu94]

He also endorsed Obama - I don't see that sitting too well with MA Republicans.

[RogueBeaver]

Rothenberg: primary would be healthy for MA Dems.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/rothenberg_are_democratic_insiders_missing_the_boat_in_massachusetts_as-220620-1.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[RogueBeaver]

Frank: I really, really want that seat. If these appointments work anything like Veepstakes, this might actually be hurting him IMO.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/barney-frank-pushes-for-senate-seat-85894.html?hp=l11

[RogueBeaver]

Brown still undecided, apparently Capuano is leaning against.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/10/brown-undecided-on-senate-bid-this-year/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_politicalticker+%28Blog%3A+Political+Ticker%29

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If Brown stays out could Tisei be a potential contender for the Rupublicans?

[RogueBeaver]

Third time certainly wouldn't be the charm for him, if he did decide to run. No one else will move until the seat is vacant, so Markey has things to himself for now. I'd be surprised if Brown stayed out since all the indicators say yes and he's never struck me as the sort to get last-minute cold feet.

[RogueBeaver]

Frank endorses Markey in the primary.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2013/01/frank-backs-markey-in-mass-senate-special-153853.html

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The perception at least as far as I'm able to tell is that Brown's staying undecided for long enough that it's not really helping him.

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe he's waiting to see if another Dem jumps in. That's the only non-logistical reason I can think of.

[Dan the Roman]

The perception at least as far as I'm able to tell is that Brown's staying undecided for long enough that it's not really helping him.

The situation for the Republican brand has deteriorated dramatically in the last four weeks to an extent that is noticeable even  to Brown. The fight over the debt limit, the gun control battles, the return of Iraq/Foreign policy, and an impending government shutdown all are combining to create almost an exact inverse of the environment in which he ran last time.

I think the cold feet are less a sign of indecision, since he had already decided to get in a few weeks ago, but rather genuine second thoughts.

[minionofmidas]

The perception at least as far as I'm able to tell is that Brown's staying undecided for long enough that it's not really helping him.

The situation for the Republican brand has deteriorated dramatically in the last four weeks to an extent that is noticeable even  to Brown.

I think Brown's more attuned to that than the average Republican, in Congress or in this thread, actually.

[RogueBeaver]

Mixed reports on whether Frank's public lobbying has hurt him, but apparently Lynch and Brown are all but in.

http://nationaljournal.com/congress-legacy/barney-frank-s-public-hunt-hurts-his-senate-chances-20130111

[RogueBeaver]

Downing is out, LCV endorses Markey.

http://atr.rollcall.com/massachusetts-league-of-conservation-voters-endorses-markey/

[RogueBeaver]

Brown is mulling both jobs, but the state GOP would prefer he run for Senate.


http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=596F8D14-F1D9-4ADC-AE2A-7EED634CFDA6

[Benj]

If Brown stays out could Tisei be a potential contender for the Rupublicans?

Maybe, but he'd lose. He couldn't even beat Tierney, who was hugely damaged (and also in a less Democratic seat than the state). Also, Tisei, being gay, can't assemble the coalition of voters Brown did.

[Nichlemn]

If Brown stays out could Tisei be a potential contender for the Rupublicans?

Maybe, but he'd lose. He couldn't even beat Tierney, who was hugely damaged (and also in a less Democratic seat than the state). Also, Tisei, being gay, can't assemble the coalition of voters Brown did.

What about the uncertainty/turnout issues of special elections?

[RogueBeaver]

Unions not endorsing yet.

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/truth_squad/2013/01/markey_gets_thumbs_down_union_big

[Benj]

If Brown stays out could Tisei be a potential contender for the Rupublicans?

Maybe, but he'd lose. He couldn't even beat Tierney, who was hugely damaged (and also in a less Democratic seat than the state). Also, Tisei, being gay, can't assemble the coalition of voters Brown did.

What about the uncertainty/turnout issues of special elections?

Only to an extent. It would be literally impossible for the electorate to be more favorable to Republicans than the electorate that elected Brown was. Since Brown didn't win by much, that leaves little margin for error. Thus, a successful Republican candidate will have to both manage something approaching the 2010 turnout and keep the Brown coalition together. Tisei can do neither of those things.

He can't get 2010 turnout because he doesn't excite the Republican base like Brown did. He's not pretty, he's not dynamic, he's not charismatic. He feels like a career politician. No one's going to get stoked about voting for him. In addition, the Democrats are highly unlikely to be as disillusioned about their candidate as they were about Coakley--possible, but highly unlikely.

He can't maintain the Brown coalition because he's gay. The Brown coalition depended on socially conservative Democrats crossing over in order to stick up their fingers at Patrick/Obama/the Kennedys over Obama defeating Clinton, over gay marriage, over abortion, etc. They're not going to cross over to vote for a gay man, no matter what his views on other issues are. Period, end of story.

[Miles]

Capuano is out.

I doubt Lynch enters in; the progressive/liberal bloc of primary voters can unite around Markey as opposed to being fractured.

[RogueBeaver]

So a clear field it is. Now we await Brown's entry.

[Gass3268]

I'm starting to doubt that Brown will run. I think he's going to go for the Governor next year instead.

[Beet]

Unions not endorsing yet.

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/truth_squad/2013/01/markey_gets_thumbs_down_union_big

“The field is weak at best, and in a special election beating Brown will take a lot of work and a lot of money,” he said, adding that U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry’s potential confirmation as secretary of state is likely to send Brown right back to Capitol Hill. “This scenario is man-made and it shows the lack of respect that those people have in Washington for the amount of work we did in the Brown-Warren election. To re-create the scenario is a slap in the face to all the people who volunteered their time, door-to-door and made donations.”

The bitterness must be pretty significant out there for him to slam the president like that to the press.