MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still don't buy Brown winning this. I'm not used to bold predictions, but I feel like I'll make an exception this time.

[krazen1211]

Rep. Stephen Lynch has reached out to key allies in the labor movement and told them unequivocally he will run for Senate if Sen. John Kerry, as expected, is tabbed as Secretary of State.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Rep. Stephen Lynch has reached out to key allies in the labor movement and told them unequivocally he will run for Senate if Sen. John Kerry, as expected, is tabbed as Secretary of State.

Oh good Lord.

[Keystone Phil]

Lynch getting in has to be a serious blow to Brown though maybe that would depress turnout amongst more liberal voters (and the already low turnout in a Special is beneficial to Brown, too).

[RogueBeaver]

The progressive Dems will throw up a challenger or 2 to Lynch and we'll get another demolition derby. Brown runs the loser (s) attack ads against the winner.

[krazen1211]

Lynch getting in has to be a serious blow to Brown though maybe that would depress turnout amongst more liberal voters (and the already low turnout in a Special is beneficial to Brown, too).

Yes, that was my thought as well. That said, I suspect that Lynch would not lose his own Congressional district against Brown the way Coakley did.

A clown car primary is to be expected as Democrats are now in the minority in the House.

[Holmes]

Warren had 14 months to chip away those numbers. With the time frame of a special election low name rec is the major problem to be overcome.

In most countries (and rightly so), most elections are only 4 - 6 weeks long. A lot of movement can happen in the final few weeks. Americans are just used to a state of permanent campaigns.

[Keystone Phil]

The progressive Dems will throw up a challenger or 2 to Lynch and we'll get another demolition derby. Brown runs the loser (s) attack ads against the winner.

Oh, right. I keep forgetting about the primary though I wonder if Lynch would squeak by with a ton of more liberal candidates splitting up the vote on the left.

[Brittain33]

Lynch trying to run is not a surprise - he's put out feelers before. The question is whether the unions support him or whether he's completely burned his bridges with his equivocation on Obamacare. If he decides to run (with or without the support) and wins the primary (because Markey, Capuano, and a pure liberal run), move this seat to Likely R.

[Badger]

It might be too soon, but what about that Kennedy that just got elected? Obviously he'd be running on his name, but I imagine he'd like an upgrade eventually.

Like an upgrade eventually? Sir, the man is a Kennedy! He's entitled to that upgrade at birth! It was an incredibly humbling move that he even ran for the House in the first place. See, the talk should at least be about him running for the Senate and President soon enough. It's really unfair to expect him to settle for a position that bores him. But if he just wants to sort of hang out in an office where he has no interest of serving, doesn't intend to "work a day in his life," etc. and have a nice easy ride, he is more than welcome to. And he won't be questioned. He's a Kennedy and we will admire him...because, you know, we're told that we should. 

If, for whatever heinous reason, a Senate run doesn't work out, Joseph Kennedy XLIII can very easily and without consequence move to a state he's never lived in and run to represent voters he doesn't know even if he can't vote for himself. This is the least that can be done for a member of "America's Royal Family."

Phil, the meme of Republicans scoffing at the Kennedy clan is tired to put it mildly. I realize we may feel the need to overcompensate attacking the one liberal wealthy family who rides on their birthright to success, especially after we nominate a monied chump like Romney for pesident, but it's still old.

[Keystone Phil]

It might be too soon, but what about that Kennedy that just got elected? Obviously he'd be running on his name, but I imagine he'd like an upgrade eventually.

Like an upgrade eventually? Sir, the man is a Kennedy! He's entitled to that upgrade at birth! It was an incredibly humbling move that he even ran for the House in the first place. See, the talk should at least be about him running for the Senate and President soon enough. It's really unfair to expect him to settle for a position that bores him. But if he just wants to sort of hang out in an office where he has no interest of serving, doesn't intend to "work a day in his life," etc. and have a nice easy ride, he is more than welcome to. And he won't be questioned. He's a Kennedy and we will admire him...because, you know, we're told that we should. 

If, for whatever heinous reason, a Senate run doesn't work out, Joseph Kennedy XLIII can very easily and without consequence move to a state he's never lived in and run to represent voters he doesn't know even if he can't vote for himself. This is the least that can be done for a member of "America's Royal Family."

Phil, the meme of Republicans scoffing at the Kennedy clan is tired to put it mildly. I realize we may feel the need to overcompensate attacking the one liberal wealthy family who rides on their birthright to success, especially after we nominate a monied chump like Romney for pesident, but it's still old.

Ok, that's nice but it isn't just a meme. Some of us don't slober over garbage. And you should certainly know better than to think I would ever try to overcompensate in response to nominating Romney. I made it clear throughout that I thought it was a huge mistake and never pretended to like the guy so bashing the Kennedy's has nothing to do with covering up a Romney mess I helped expose.

[sg0508]

Just my opinion, but I think it would be a mistake for Scott Brown to jump into this right away after that dreadful senate campaign in Nov.  I think he did some damage to his image, despite his overall ratings.

I think the smarter thing to do would be to wait two years and run for Governor. Even where turnout would be down in a special election, that poor campaign has to be fresh in the minds of many.

[© tweed]

is Warren allowed to resign (or refuse to take office) and then run again?

[Badger]

It might be too soon, but what about that Kennedy that just got elected? Obviously he'd be running on his name, but I imagine he'd like an upgrade eventually.

Like an upgrade eventually? Sir, the man is a Kennedy! He's entitled to that upgrade at birth! It was an incredibly humbling move that he even ran for the House in the first place. See, the talk should at least be about him running for the Senate and President soon enough. It's really unfair to expect him to settle for a position that bores him. But if he just wants to sort of hang out in an office where he has no interest of serving, doesn't intend to "work a day in his life," etc. and have a nice easy ride, he is more than welcome to. And he won't be questioned. He's a Kennedy and we will admire him...because, you know, we're told that we should. 

If, for whatever heinous reason, a Senate run doesn't work out, Joseph Kennedy XLIII can very easily and without consequence move to a state he's never lived in and run to represent voters he doesn't know even if he can't vote for himself. This is the least that can be done for a member of "America's Royal Family."

Phil, the meme of Republicans scoffing at the Kennedy clan is tired to put it mildly. I realize we may feel the need to overcompensate attacking the one liberal wealthy family who rides on their birthright to success, especially after we nominate a monied chump like Romney for pesident, but it's still old.

Ok, that's nice but it isn't just a meme. Some of us don't slober over garbage. And you should certainly know better than to think I would ever try to overcompensate in response to nominating Romney. I made it clear throughout that I thought it was a huge mistake and never pretended to like the guy so bashing the Kennedy's has nothing to do with covering up a Romney mess I helped expose.

Oh trust me, Phil: I know Romney is at least one thing we share opinions on.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

is Warren allowed to resign (or refuse to take office) and then run again?

Well then another special would just be held for that seat later. What'd be the point?

[NewYorkExpress]

Given the way the GOP has been lately what are the odds Kerry's actually confirmed as State... After torpedoing Susan Rice, and essentially torpedoing Hagel for Defense, I don't think the GOP stops there... this Special may still be moot...

[RogueBeaver]

Nate Silver rates Brown's odds.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/us/politics/playing-the-odds-for-a-scott-brown-senate-comeback.html?gwh=8EC41DA2E7F36DA5D255332DDCFF2917

[© tweed]

is Warren allowed to resign (or refuse to take office) and then run again?

Well then another special would just be held for that seat later. What'd be the point?

bleed Brown's sponsors.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

WBUR poll shows Brown with 58% approval and leading Dem Congressmen by 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20/wbur-special-senate-election-poll

If we have to go through this again, Begich and Landrieu had better win their states.

This seat is up again in 2014, though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

is Warren allowed to resign (or refuse to take office) and then run again?

Somehow I can't see the average voter approving of that.

[RogueBeaver]

Brown's getting encouragement from his fellow Pub senators.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=D690C5BB-A743-4188-8411-DF5F9BE6D05B

[Psychic Octopus]

Ben Affleck for Senate.

[Ogre Mage]

It's no surprise that GOP senators are trying to get Brown to run.  That was their whole point in scuttling Rice's nomination in the first place.

[nolesfan2011]

I'm still not fully sure Brown would run, especially if a stronger Dem jumps in the race.  He may wait and run for gov in 14 when the wounds from the Warren elex aren't so raw and in memory.  Plus his popularity factor plays better at the state level rather than the federal elve.

Warren only won because she nationalized the race.

I think it will be Weld on the GOP side, as a bit of a token.

On the Dem side I hope it will be Capuano or Markey, they would both be fine Senators.

With Rice bowing out for the SoS nom, the overwhelming favorite for the job is John Kerry. This will of course trigger a special election. Per MSNBC First Watch:

"Here’s what you would need to know: The special would take place 145 to 160 days after Kerry resigns his seat. So if Kerry steps down on Jan. 21, the special election primary would have to take place between Friday, May 3 and Saturday, May 18. The special general would then have to take place between Friday, June 14 and Saturday, June 29."

Scott Brown is almost assuredly running and getting the GOP nom. So, handicap the race. Who gets in on the Dem side? Who likely wins the primary? What are the likely odds between Brown and the likely Dems in the special general? Will Patrick jump in?

Speculate away!

[nolesfan2011]

Yep, also in the case of Patrick, he would only run if Brown were to win the special (to knock him off again). that is my view at least.

Also Lynch is running on the Dem side but won't get out of a primary.

LOL @ people who think Brown would be the favorite to win. 2010 was a massive upset, against an absolutely awful dem candidate and in a climate of extreme unpopularity at the time. That's not going to happen again easily.

That's Likely-D at best, Safe-D if a big guy runs.