Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[minionofmidas]

The ORF Chancellor debate yesterday was won by Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ), says the IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung:

I like how they polled people on what aspect the candidates were better, but "sprachlich verständlicher"? Wtf? "He spoke Tyrolean. I can only understand High German and Viennese."

[Tender Branson]

The ORF Chancellor debate yesterday was won by Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ), says the IMAS poll for the Kronen Zeitung:

I like how they polled people on what aspect the candidates were better, but "sprachlich verständlicher"? Wtf? "He spoke Tyrolean. I can only understand High German and Viennese."

"sprachlich verständlicher" ("rhetorically more comprehensible") is likely a category that the pollster only included because of Frank Stronach's Styrianadian slang ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is out with another "bleak atmosphere" ad, called "Election day is pay-day !"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJsluapqhtQ

[peterould]

The FPÖ is out with another "bleak atmosphere" ad, called "Election day is pay-day !"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJsluapqhtQ

Oh I would love to be able to embed videos on this forum. We need less FPÖ and more of this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpKM7CHBhoU

:-)

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is out with another "bleak atmosphere" ad, called "Election day is pay-day !"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJsluapqhtQ

Oh I would love to be able to embed videos on this forum. We need less FPÖ and more of this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpKM7CHBhoU

:-)

I'm no fan of Austrian "country-music" ...

[Franknburger]

The FPÖ is out with another "bleak atmosphere" ad, called "Election day is pay-day !"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJsluapqhtQ

Oh I would love to be able to embed videos on this forum. We need less FPÖ and more of this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpKM7CHBhoU

:-)

I can live without both

[Tender Branson]

The final days of the campaign are so boring that this is the most interesting news:

* All ballots in Vorarlberg look like this:



Do you find the error ?

[peterould]

The final days of the campaign are so boring that this is the most interesting news:

* All ballots in Vorarlberg look like this:



Do you find the error ?

SeptemPer.

Brilliant!

[ERvND]

I just checked Bad Aussee, Altaussee and Grundlesee. I come from such a horribly socialist part of the country....

:-)

As a Bavarian Social Democrat, I can tell you it's a great relief for me that there are rural districts somewhere in the world with a "left" plurality. In Bavaria, that's completely unimaginable; the only thing you can check is whether the CSU broke 60, 70 or even 80%.

[Tender Branson]

How are the Austrian "exit polls" and projections on Sunday done ?

Unlike in the German federal election, there is actually no kind of exit poll here that leads to the first projection by SORA at 5pm.

In Germany, the "projectors" Infratest Dimap and FGW survey more than 30.000 people when they leave their voting precinct. This data is then used to create the first projection. This makes sense, considering that in Germany all precincts have to stay open until 6pm. Therefore the projectors cannot use any data on already counted cities, unlike in Austria, where polls close individually.

SORA uses already counted precincts until 5pm for their first projection, analyzes trends from these precincts relative to the 2008 results and then creates the 5pm projections.

Usually, only 20% of the vote is "in" at 5pm - mostly very small, rural towns - so the margin of error for this first projection is ca. +/- 3%.

To minimize the margin of error in the first projection, SORA also uses their telephone "election day survey", which asks ca. 1500 voters how they voted, what their motives were and other important stuff.

As more precincts come in, the SORA projections get more and more accurate and the margin of error is going down.

Which means that after 1 hour, at 6pm, the margin of error is usually at ca. 1-2% anymore.

After 2 hours, the margin of error is down to ca. 1% and by 8pm (after 3 hours of vote counting), we should already have a preliminary final result - meaning that all votes are counted (excl. postal & absentee ballots, which will be counted on Monday & Thursday).

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone like to do the hardcore Wahlkabine with 83 questions and 13 parties giving answers (all, except the Team Stronach) ?

http://parteivergleich.eu/index.php?Seite=Nationalratswahl

[Yeahsayyeah]

KPÖ in front of the Trotzkyites in front of Green. ÖVP last by far. Typical result for a German left wing Greenie, I guess. ;-)

[Tender Branson]

Just a reminder:

Political scientists like Peter Filzmaier estimate that if the FPÖ wants to finish ahead of the ÖVP they need to be ahead of the ÖVP by ca. 0.5-1.0% on Sunday, because the postal/absentee count lowers the FPÖ percentage historically, while the ÖVP percentage increases.

So, basically, if the 1st 5pm projection shows:

23.1% FPÖ
22.5% ÖVP

... the ÖVP could still come out ahead of the FPÖ either on Monday (postals are counted) or Thursday (absentees are counted).

[Tender Branson]

Bloomberg has a new article out:

Election May Nudge ‘Complacent’ Austria to Revamp Social System

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

Today was the last day to request absentee ballots. The numbers are now out:

668.658 total absentees were requested.

That's up from the 586.451 in the 2008 election, or up by 14%.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/nationalrat/2013/files/Ausgestellte_Wahlkarten_NRW2013_Vergleich.pdf

That means that turnout will increase by 8.5-9% compared with the Sunday count (total absentees account for 10.5% of eligible voters and historically about 80-85% who requested absentees have also sent them back).

[Tender Branson]

An increase in absentee ballot requests does not necessarily mean higher total turnout in the election.

In fact I predict that turnout could actually drop to ca. 73-75%, down from 79% in 2008.

But we'll see ...

[peterould]

Are we expecting one final round of polls tomorrow and then that's it? Nothing on Sunday I presume.

[Tender Branson]

Are we expecting one final round of polls tomorrow and then that's it? Nothing on Sunday I presume.

There are no polls coming out anymore.

That's what Ö24 is reporting: Pollsters and the news media have stopped commissioning polls for the final week, because they don't want to influence the decision making process of voters so close to election day.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The OGM/Kurier poll from Sunday was the final poll.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-people out with new controversial Facebook-postings:



"We have to stay out !"

The sign shows 2 (Muslim) people with headscarves.

Usually that sign is on the entrances of Austrian shopping centers, showing that dogs have to stay out of the store so they don't take a sh*t in that store ...  

http://www.news.at/a/fpoe-immer-aerger-mit-facebook

[njwes]

Wow. Was that posted by the official FPO admins or just by one of their FB followers? If the former, that's pretty awful.

[peterould]

Are we expecting one final round of polls tomorrow and then that's it? Nothing on Sunday I presume.

There are no polls coming out anymore.

That's what Ö24 is reporting: Pollsters and the news media have stopped commissioning polls for the final week, because they don't want to influence the decision making process of voters so close to election day.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The OGM/Kurier poll from Sunday was the final poll.

Gosh, then it's going to be VERY hard to predict the final outcome...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'No Blacks, No Dogs, No Irish'

[Tender Branson]

Wow. Was that posted by the official FPO admins or just by one of their FB followers? If the former, that's pretty awful.

The latter. Even though the Facebook followers that klicked "like" or forwarded the pictures were sometimes low-level FPÖ-members, such as FPÖ-leaders of some small town.

[Tender Branson]

Are we expecting one final round of polls tomorrow and then that's it? Nothing on Sunday I presume.

There are no polls coming out anymore.

That's what Ö24 is reporting: Pollsters and the news media have stopped commissioning polls for the final week, because they don't want to influence the decision making process of voters so close to election day.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The OGM/Kurier poll from Sunday was the final poll.

Gosh, then it's going to be VERY hard to predict the final outcome...

But you can still try, in the prediction thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179604.0

[Tender Branson]

There will be more than 11.000 "Sprengel" (voting precincts) on Sunday, in 2.354 towns/cities - for a total of 6.384.296 eligible voters.

That's an average of 500 eligible voters per precinct (if absentee voters are already subtracted), or 400, if we consider the turnout of ca. 80%.