Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[peterould]

Sorry - I meant Turkish.

Surprised by those polling figures on Faymann / Strache. Genuinely thought Strache had the upper hand on Faymann (in the same way he did in 2008 when my left leaning aunt described Faymann as "Schleimig"). I certainly thought Faymann did himself no favours when he denied those Turkish language posters and came across as shouty and unwilling to accept his actions.

Hmmmmm..... perhaps I'm a closet populist.... Someone find me a blue balloon.

[Tender Branson]

Sorry - I meant Turkish.

Surprised by those polling figures on Faymann / Strache. Genuinely thought Strache had the upper hand on Faymann (in the same way he did in 2008 when my left leaning aunt described Faymann as "Schleimig"). I certainly thought Faymann did himself no favours when he denied those Turkish language posters and came across as shouty and unwilling to accept his actions.

Hmmmmm..... perhaps I'm a closet populist.... Someone find me a blue balloon.

About 99% of Green debate watchers and the big majority of ÖVP and "other party" watchers will always vote against Strache, because the FPÖ is so unlikable ...

[ERvND]

Are there any political allegations over the poacher shooting? Is the government held responsible by the media?

[Tender Branson]

Are there any political allegations over the poacher shooting? Is the government held responsible by the media?

No.

The government has not really much to do with a situation ("regular criminal", no terrorist) like that, other than the Interior Minister maybe who gets informed by the local police, the COBRA and the military, if needed.

The fact that the poacher was acting so irrational and that he had night-vision and long range rifles and that he knew the woods much better than the police/special forces, made the situation so explosive. He snipered the 4 people dead, out of the woods, using the nightvision. Not even the COBRA people were prepared for that. He basically saw them as deer.

The incident will be investigated of course, if there's anything that the police/COBRA might have done different, but the common strategy was to catch the poacher red-handed, while in the woods. Of course nobody knew that he would sniper them to death ...

[Tender Branson]

Got a (racist) mailer from the FPÖ yesterday that includes a comic about "Austrian fairytales/myths/legends" - in which they put the "Daham statt Islam and other stuff again".

It's a mailer for young voters (16-30), but I didn't find it online so far.

Maybe I take a picture of 1 page and put it on here later.

[peterould]

Got a (racist) mailer from the FPÖ yesterday that includes a comic about "Austrian fairytales/myths/legends" - in which they put the "Daham statt Islam and other stuff again".

It's a mailer for young voters (16-30), but I didn't find it online so far.

Maybe I take a picture of 1 page and put it on here later.

Yes please!

[Tender Branson]

New poll by meinungsraum.at for "NEOS":

28% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
19% FPÖ
15% Greens
  7% TS
  4% NEOS
  2% BZÖ
  1% Others

http://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/wahlumfrage.php?uid=337

New Karmasin young voter (16-30) poll for "Heute":

[Tender Branson]

Got a (racist) mailer from the FPÖ yesterday that includes a comic about "Austrian fairytales/myths/legends" - in which they put the "Daham statt Islam and other stuff again".

It's a mailer for young voters (16-30), but I didn't find it online so far.

Maybe I take a picture of 1 page and put it on here later.

Yes please!

Excerpts (it has ca. 20 pages):

http://imageshack.us/a/img198/8038/sbz6.jpg

http://imageshack.us/a/img4/6248/kuel.jpg

http://imageshack.us/a/img594/5691/ytef.jpg

http://imageshack.us/a/img542/6797/ehu7.jpg

[Tender Branson]

New NEOS ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLWyHyzL5Ek

[Leftbehind]

F**k off, NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll by Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies (sample = 1000):

27% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
20% FPÖ
15% Greens
  7% TS
  3% NEOS
  3% BZÖ
  1% Pirates
  1% Others

74% of those polled say they will "definitely vote" in the election.
25% are still deciding or won't vote
  1% have no opinion

ÖVP-voters, old people and rural people are the most likely to vote.

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/3942855/file

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll by meinungsraum.at for "NEOS":

28% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
19% FPÖ
15% Greens
  7% TS
  4% NEOS
  2% BZÖ
  1% Others

http://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/wahlumfrage.php?uid=337

New Karmasin young voter (16-30) poll for "Heute":

Well, if it isn't Belinda Stronach making an appearance in the top left corner. What does it say about her?

[Sozialliberal]

Well, if it isn't Belinda Stronach making an appearance in the top left corner. What does it say about her?

She gave a speech in Vienna on Tuesday to support her dad's election campaign.

[ERvND]

Excerpts (it has ca. 20 pages):

TL;DR

I can't imagine a 16 year old reading through this whole crap. Such flyers are expensive, but not very effective.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ gaining ...

New Karmasin poll for Heute (sample = 800):



21% and rising. The difference between ÖVP and FPÖ is now just 2% anymore, well within the margin of error.

The graphic says that the poll was done Sept. 19-21, which must be an error.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for "Ö24":

[Tender Branson]

In the ORF debates yeterday, the one with Strache/FPÖ vs. Bucher/BZÖ was a tie, according to the IMAS debate poll and Strache and Bucher had very much in common and didn't rule out a coalition together. In the past years, both didn't really like each other but now it seems they have buried their problems ...



In the second debate, Glawischnig/Greens easily beat Stronach/TS:

[Zanas]

Is it me or it seems the BZÖ is getting a tiny little bit back on their feet ? And also Neos seems to experience a little swelling also, albeit not a surge.

[Tender Branson]

Is it me or it seems the BZÖ is getting a tiny little bit back on their feet ? And also Neos seems to experience a little swelling also, albeit not a surge.

Maybe ...

BZÖ-leader Bucher is not that polarizing as Strache and has some appeal to ÖVP voters too.

Besides he's a good debater. But he's carrying the baggage of the "old BZÖ", despite saying he got rid of the Haider-folks and presented a new team.

And NEOS can count on the late deciders: If swing voters see them as a good option on election day, anything could be possible for them. But we have to remember that the LIF gained during the 2008 campaign as well, polled 3-4% and then got only 2% on election day.

[Tender Branson]

Because the ORF is idiotic and is not showing debates between NEOS, Pirates and KPÖ - the political blog neuwal.com is currently hosting 3 debates between them, incl. the frontrunners from NEOS and KPÖ:

http://neuwal.com/live

Kreisky vs. Taus style ... (no moderator)

[Tender Branson]

NEOS vs. KPÖ debate now over.

KPÖ vs. Pirates starts in a few minutes.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the Standard (sample = 1000, Sept. 18-19):

26% SPÖ
23% ÖVP
19% FPÖ
15% Greens
  7% TS
  4% BZÖ
  3% NEOS
  1% Pirates
  1% KPÖ
  1% Others

http://derstandard.at/1379291526979/SPOe-geht-mit-Vorsprung-in-letzte-Woche

[Tender Branson]

According to the Interior Ministry, all votes should be counted until 7 or 8pm next Sunday.

Polls close at 5pm, so it'll take ca. 2-3 hours to count the ballots.

[Tender Branson]

The election is getting really interesting in the final week after all ...

The new OGM poll for the "Kurier" shows the following:



http://kurier.at/politik/inland/ogm-umfrage-regierungsmehrheit-von-rot-und-schwarz-wackelt/27.740.154

...

49% for the SPÖVP "Grand Coalition"
49% for the Opposition (FPÖ/Greens/TS/BZÖ/NEOS)

Threshold is 4%.

Plus: The poll says that 76% of those polled will "definitely vote" next Sunday, 8% are "likely to vote" and the rest will "not vote" or remain undecided.

OGM is historically one of the best pollsters, so we should weight their results a little bit more than other pollsters.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I've always wondered why in Germany and Austria polls close so early. Most other countries seem to at least be open til 8pm, if not longer.

Also it'd be sort of facinating to see seven parties win seats in parliament. It'd be a new record for Austria, right?