In this scenario, both Democrat and Republican primaries have no clear heir-apparent.
On the Democratic side, the final four are Cuomo, O'Malley, Warren, and Schweitzer. Hillary has decided not run, and a few of the other possible candidates from swing states also decline (Hickenlooper, Warner). In the end, it's Cuomo vs. the non-Cuomo candidates.
On the Republican side, the final four are McDonnell, Martinez, Christie, and Jindal. Rubio ends up dropping out, and other candidates have also dropped (Ayotte, Sandoval, Perry, Santorum). In the end, the Republicans surprisingly go with Susana Martinez, who not only is Hispanic and female, from a Dem-leaning swing state, but seems to balance the tea-party brand, non-crony capitalism, no major gaffes, and is highly popular with the moderate/populist leaning independents. (This assumes she has no major scandals and is re-elected).
After the GOP nominates a woman for POTUS, the Dems counter with nominating Amy Kobluchar for several reasons (woman, midwest region, and liberal to balance out the moderate Cuomo.)
the GOP decides to go with Gov Bob McDonnell for several reasons (crucial swing-state, regional balance, popular governor, and white-male balance). With the way things are going in Washington, it's fresh to have two non-insiders running.
Who wins?
My thoughts:
There is Obama/Dem fatigue, and the Republicans do well in midterms (house remains Rep, senate is still Dem but gains are made there) have made inroads with minority demographics (they can only go up from where they are now), young people, women, and the economy is not bad but still mediocre.
I gave Susana a 327-211 victory (A Obama-esque 2012 victory in reverse). Honestly, this is the best I can see Republicans doing given the solid Dem nature of the west coast, and most of the northeast.
I gave her PA because it was the pivotal state this year, and there could be an argument made for a Republican trend. I gave her WI (mirror image of NC?) and Republicans always try for it; maybe Cuomo's lack of midwest appeal won't be enough to keep it Dem this time, so Republicans finally break through.
I also gave her IA, FL, OH, NH due to national trends. VA goes red bc of McDonnell and national trends.
I think she would win all three of the SW trifecta (NV, NM, CO ). Nevada likes voting for the winner, homestate advantage in NM, and Colorado is the most likely to flip out of those 3.
Thoughts?
Poll
