Who is the most vulnerable governor in America?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In two years, that is. I didn't bother including Chafee, since his demise is almost a given.

[Napoleon]

LePage

[RogueBeaver]

GOP: LePage
Dems: Quinn

[Svensson]

Scott and Malloy. Quinn would be vulnerable did he not have the Chicago machine in his corner.

[Skill and Chance]

1. LePage
2. Scott
3. Quinn
4. Haley (GOP primary)
5. Malloy (D+8 high-turnout state just may save him)

Corbett seems to be getting some traction back, so he narrowly avoids the list.

[Franzl]

LePage

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

In two years, that is. I didn't bother including Chafee, since his demise is almost a given.

What the hell Chafee did (or did not) to deserve such a horrible approvals?

[CountryRoads]

Corbett.

[Maxwell]

Corbett, LePage, and Scott all are in deep sh**t. As are Quinn and Malloy on the D side. They will probably not win re-election.

Also, Kitzhaber's approvals have jumped as of late, and I don't think he's quite at risk anymore.

[hopper]

Quinn has a 50% shot of re-election. He won in a Republican Wave Year too in 2010 and liberal Cook County is where the majority of votes are! Quinn just won 3 counties last time out and still win the election!

[hopper]

I think Lepage on the R side and Malloy on the D side of the ledger.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Neil Abercrombie for Dems and Scott for Republicans. 

Quinn has a 50% shot of re-election. He won in a Republican Wave Year too in 2010 and liberal Cook County is where the majority of votes are! Quinn just won 3 counties last time out and still win the election!

Yeah, but Republicans nominated an ultra-conservative in Bill Brady who alienated the Chicago suburbs.  Although Brady carried the Collar Counties, his margin wasn't wide enough to win.  I think Quinn will run again, but he probably won't win unless Republicans nominate a bad candidate to challenge him like they did with Brady in 2010.  If Dan Rutherford runs, then I expect him to win it all. 
I'm pretty certain that Snyder won't run again, since he said that if he accomplishes his agenda in four years, then he won't run again.  Bill Schuette will run, win the GOP nomination, and then win the general election. 
Corbett may run again, but he will almost certainly face a primary challenger and may very well lose there. 
LePage hopefully will retire, but if not, he still probably has a decent chance of winning against anyone except Eliot Cutler.  Scott will run, but he may very well get primaried.  If not, he'll probably lose the general election, but I probably wouldn't lose sleep over that one. 
If Chafee runs again, he will probably lose another three-way race with a strong candidate for either major party.  He may even finish third in such a scenario; I'm not counting him out yet because I don't know of any Democrats or Republicans who could pose a serious challenge. 
I don't see what Nikki Haley did to get such awful numbers, but if she runs, she will lose, either in the primary or the general election. 
As for Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii, he is supposedly one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  I'm suprised he's not on this list, although, like Haley, I don't know what he did to deserve it.  The only problem is that I don't know of anybody who could be a serous challenger to him on the GOP side.
I could see Kitzhaber losing, but I don't know of any Republicans who would run very strong against him. 

Of course, it's too early to assume anything, but this is my preliminary analysis.

[Mr.Phips]

Neil Abercrombie for Dems and Scott for Republicans. 

Quinn has a 50% shot of re-election. He won in a Republican Wave Year too in 2010 and liberal Cook County is where the majority of votes are! Quinn just won 3 counties last time out and still win the election!

Yeah, but Republicans nominated an ultra-conservative in Bill Brady who alienated the Chicago suburbs.  Although Brady carried the Collar Counties, his margin wasn't wide enough to win.  I think Quinn will run again, but he probably won't win unless Republicans nominate a bad candidate to challenge him like they did with Brady in 2010.  If Dan Rutherford runs, then I expect him to win it all. 
I'm pretty certain that Snyder won't run again, since he said that if he accomplishes his agenda in four years, then he won't run again.  Bill Schuette will run, win the GOP nomination, and then win the general election. 
Corbett may run again, but he will almost certainly face a primary challenger and may very well lose there. 
LePage hopefully will retire, but if not, he still probably has a decent chance of winning against anyone except Eliot Cutler.  Scott will run, but he may very well get primaried.  If not, he'll probably lose the general election, but I probably wouldn't lose sleep over that one. 
If Chafee runs again, he will probably lose another three-way race with a strong candidate for either major party.  He may even finish third in such a scenario; I'm not counting him out yet because I don't know of any Democrats or Republicans who could pose a serious challenge. 
I don't see what Nikki Haley did to get such awful numbers, but if she runs, she will lose, either in the primary or the general election. 
As for Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii, he is supposedly one of the most unpopular governors in the country.  I'm suprised he's not on this list, although, like Haley, I don't know what he did to deserve it.  The only problem is that I don't know of anybody who could be a serous challenger to him on the GOP side.
I could see Kitzhaber losing, but I don't know of any Republicans who would run very strong against him. 

Of course, it's too early to assume anything, but this is my preliminary analysis.

2010 was the biggest GOP wave in over a century.  Brady should have been able to beat Quinn then.  If Quinn is that unpopular, Democrats will primary him with someone like Hynes or Madigan who would easily win the general. 

[Blue3]

In two years, that is. I didn't bother including Chafee, since his demise is almost a given.

What the hell Chafee did (or did not) to deserve such a horrible approvals?

Honestly, no idea. His approval rating has basically been stuck at the number that got him elected in 2010 (which was a 4-way race). Maybe his approval is staying low because of our high unemployment? Idk. Some more Democrats should support him for being more liberal than our own Democrats. Some more Republicans should support him for his fiscal responsibility, including the landmark Pension Reform. I don't know why he hasn't gotten more support, and I've lived in Rhode Island my entire life. Though, if there is another 3 or 4-way campaign, he could squeak by another victory, and he does have 2 years for some kind of bounce.

[Miles]

In two years, that is. I didn't bother including Chafee, since his demise is almost a given.

What the hell Chafee did (or did not) to deserve such a horrible approvals?

Honestly, no idea. His approval rating has basically been stuck at the number that got him elected in 2010 (which was a 4-way race). Maybe his approval is staying low because of our high unemployment? Idk. Some more Democrats should support him for being more liberal than our own Democrats. Some more Republicans should support him for his fiscal responsibility, including the landmark Pension Reform. I don't know why he hasn't gotten more support, and I've lived in Rhode Island my entire life. Though, if there is another 3 or 4-way campaign, he could squeak by another victory, and he does have 2 years for some kind of bounce.

I like him, but he has no base on either side.

[pbrower2a]

Paul LePage is a horrible match for his state. If he runs for re-election he could lose 70-30 or worse. Except that Elizabeth Warren has better manners, he fits Maine about as well as Elizabeth Warren would fit Alabama. Governor Quinn, Illinois? The record for Illinois governors in recent years has been atrocious. It has usually led to a criminal record. Barack Obama wisely chose to run for the US Senate. 

[Incipimus iterum]

Dems:Pat Quinn, he should have Let Lisa Madigan run for Governor
Gop: Rick Scott, Paul Lepaige

[coloradocowboi]

Here are my calls on a scale of 1-10, 1 being the least vulnerable, 10 being the most.

AZ: If Jan Brewer gets her dictatorship- 2
FL: 7, This is by no means a slam dunk. In a midterm year, with lower minority turnout, Scott could eke out a win. Also, Dems need a stronger candidate than Nan Rich or Charlie Crist. Rich lacks the state name recognition and Crist is damaged goods. If Crist runs, trust me that those Republicans will be a lot nastier about the gay rumors than the Dems ever were.
IA: 3 Branstad has an edge.
ME: 10, Whether its Cutler or a Dem, LePage is a goner
MI: 2 Snyder might be one of the strongest. He has avoided controversy for the most part.
OH: 5 This will be a tossup.
PA: 6 Corbett is stronger than Dems think, but still beatable.
SC: 7 Haley is not popular and will face a strong primary. Even if she gets through this it might batter her too much to beat her Dem opponent.
WI: 4 Dems hate him but I don't see Scott Walker going anywhere.
CA: 4 No Repub can win here, but Dems are getting tired of Jerry Brown.
CO: 2 It isn't likely, but he is actually not well liked in his own party. Hickenlooper will likely stay, but keep an eye on his interaction with the new ultra-Dem legislature.
CT: 4 Mallow is definitely vulnerable, but CT is too blue.
HI: 5 Abercrombie is not well liked.
IL: 5 Pat Quinn has demographics on his side but is woefully incompetent.
NH: 4 Maggie Hassan could be vulnerable we don't know yet.
RI: 8 Lincoln Chafee is in serious trouble

In order (most to least vulnerable)
Maine, Rhode Island, S. Carolina, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Hawaii, Connecticut, New Hampshire, California, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan

[pbrower2a]

Wow! Quinn is down 64-25 in  Illinois, which should be good for a defeat in a primary election.

[politicallefty]

I voted for LePage here, for reasons others have already mentioned. I probably would've picked Rick Scott were it not for the pathetic state of the Florida Democratic Party. It'd certainly be nice if they can get their act together and take him out.

[Donerail]

I really don't see Scott as that vulnerable. He won't get primaried; the Republicans like money too much, and would prefer a self-funder. It is a midterm as well (though the noises I'm getting are that Scott on the top of the ticket could have the effect of canceling out the typical R edge). Normally, it'd be an easy pickup, but the FDP has a special gift of being able to lose elections that they really should win. If someone like Charlie doesn't run, the Democrats don't really have any decent candidates (Alex Sink isn't great, Rod Smith isn't great, South Florida isn't great, the mayors have very limited name recognition, and Bob Graham is too old).

[Dereich]

I really don't see Scott as that vulnerable. He won't get primaried; the Republicans like money too much, and would prefer a self-funder. It is a midterm as well (though the noises I'm getting are that Scott on the top of the ticket could have the effect of canceling out the typical R edge). Normally, it'd be an easy pickup, but the FDP has a special gift of being able to lose elections that they really should win. If someone like Charlie doesn't run, the Democrats don't really have any decent candidates (Alex Sink isn't great, Rod Smith isn't great, South Florida isn't great, the mayors have very limited name recognition, and Bob Graham is too old).

This. PPP's last numbers had Scott down 48/44 against generic D and practically the whole FDP bench are generic or worse. Even Crist isn't doing much better then that, and it IS a midterm year. One comforting thing for FL Dems though is that Scott is almost as bad at campaigning/improving his image as they are.

I say this race starts as barely leans-D, maybe toss-up.

[SPC]

LePage, unfortunately.

[hopper]

LePage, unfortunately.

LePage is a poor fit politically idealogy wise for the state of Maine. If you are Olympia Snowe you might want to go and primary LePage. At least if your Snowe you don't have to deal with the Tea Party or Harry Reid if you are the Governor of Maine!

[CatoMinor]

Has there been any polls out showing LePage in trouble?