NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regime change in NYC then? Of course Thompson would represent that as well.

[bedstuy]

If de Blasio does win and governs like he campaigned (I suspect he will be much more moderate and really would be that "progressive"), I think the high end home prices for NYC suburbs will surge as the high income residents in NYC might just move to these high end suburbs. 

No. 

What's with DeBlasio apparently winning Borough Park? I was also going to ask about all the Thompson strength in Staten Island. Interestingly DeBlasio won the North Shore, though doesn't that also have lots of Park Slope/Greenwich Village style liberals?

De Blasio represented some of Boro Park in the City council, right?

[Bacon King]

De Blasio represented some of Boro Park in the City council, right?

Yep. 39th District: Borough Park, Carroll Gardens, Cobble Hill, Gowanus, Kensington, Park Slope, and Windsor Terrace

[Badger]

Did de Blasio win every borough?

Looks like it. Although Staten Island is very close. Italians liked Thompson.

From my rough calculation of the numbers listed on the neighborhood map, I agree BDB won in narrowly over Thompson. Big margins on the North Shore did it for him.

Speaking as someone who remembers NYC's race-based tribal politics of the late 80's & early 90's, these results are such a sea change. The Williamsburg Hasidim voting overwhelmingly for a black guy. Ditto for the white neighborhoods on the Island. Bensonhurst is now a largely Asian neighborhood. The white Italian cleans up in Harlem and other black neighborhoods against said black opponent. Neat!

[Zioneer]

Hynes may have the Republican line, but he won't be using it:

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Thank goodness.  This was the race with the highest chance of a disastrous outcome, and the voters did the right thing.

Excellent! Hynes is a creep or defender of creeps. He needed to go, and quickly.

[bedstuy]

Did de Blasio win every borough?

Looks like it. Although Staten Island is very close. Italians liked Thompson.

From my rough calculation of the numbers listed on the neighborhood map, I agree BDB won in narrowly over Thompson. Big margins on the North Shore did it for him.

Speaking as someone who remembers NYC's race-based tribal politics of the late 80's & early 90's, these results are such a sea change. The Williamsburg Hasidim voting overwhelmingly for a black guy. Ditto for the white neighborhoods on the Island. Bensonhurst is now a largely Asian neighborhood. The white Italian cleans up in Harlem and other black neighborhoods against said black opponent. Neat!

I totally agree.  I've lived in a black neighborhood in Brooklyn for the past few years.  I see glimpses of the old style of black racial politics, the nation of Islam guys, the corrupt do-nothing politicians, mau-mauing and posturing being put above actual results, the politics of victimhood and blaming the establishment or white people instead of working together to build something.

But, that attitude among actual people is pretty much gone, despite what Bill O'Reilly says.  And in New York City, we've become such a diverse city that identity politics can't really work in city wide elections.

[Lief 🗽]

What's up with the neighborhood in the Upper East Side that Thompson did so well in? It seems to be mostly whites, but apparently some different sort of white than the rest of the UES (which otherwise voted for Quinn). I know the area used to have a lot of Central European immigrants, but I thought it had been mostly gentrified by now.

[Badger]

According to the NYT's neighborhood results map, 98% of the vote is reported. Scrolling over the neighborhoods to see where the remaining outstanding votes are offers some hope for Thompson.

In DBD's favor, only 84% of Carroll Garden--which as someone pointed out, is the area he represented in City Council--is in, and he's dominating with over a 55% share so far (and Thompson running a weak 3rd, fwiw).

Van Cordtland Village in northern Bronx has a similar share in, where DeBlasio currently matches his citywide total of 40.2%. There are a number of neighborhoods with over 90% reported, and although he's leading in almost all, there are a number he's falling short of 40% (e.g. Richmond Hill--he's leading with 97% in, but with only a 33.6% share). Still, it appears there are more such neighborhoods where he's substantially enough over 40% (e.g. Morningside Heights, Dumbo) to probably make a net percentage gain from where he currently stands, though the cumulative aid from VCV and these mostly-reported neighborhoods combined will likely be minimal.

From there, things start to look brighter for Thompson. The worst "offenders" for outstanding votes are a strip of neighborhoods from Washington Heights (South) running east across the river to East Tremont (Highbridge, Mount Hope and East/West Concourse). They have anywhere from 78% to only 53% reported according to the map. DeBlasio is probably still narrowly beating Thompson in the total vote of these combined 5 neighborhoods, but he's only reaching the mid to high 30's, percentage-wise.

If the reported trends continue, Carroll Gardens and the other mostly reported neighborhoods won't be enough to keep his vote % from dropping when those (relatively) Thompson-friendly neighborhoods fully report. Considering how close the margin is, it may very well be enough to ultimately drop DeBlasio below 40%.

Again, this is assuming the numbers on the NYT's neighborhood map is correct, and keep in mind their precinct map has numerous obvious errors (like Cedrico getting over 97% of the vote in an 1100+ vote precinct, etc.).

EDIT: Believe it or not, the map's listing of some of these neighborhood's reported vote in is actually being updated regularly. The reported vote for some of the Bronx neighborhoods I mentioned just jumped several percentage points. DeBlasio maintains at 40.2% overall for now....

[Badger]

Just checked the precinct map for Williamsburg in the Comptroller's race. The Hasidem do NOT like Spitzer apparantly! I'm sure Stringer being Jewish didn't help, but he was getting mid-to-low single digits.

[traininthedistance]

What's up with the neighborhood in the Upper East Side that Thompson did so well in? It seems to be mostly whites, but apparently some different sort of white than the rest of the UES (which otherwise voted for Quinn). I know the area used to have a lot of Central European immigrants, but I thought it had been mostly gentrified by now.

Yorkville is surprisingly middle-class and not-rich, at least by the standards of NYC.  The areas far East, near the river, are a pain to get to from anywhere and as such remain a good deal less expensive than the other white parts of Manhattan.

[cinyc]

According to the NYT's neighborhood results map, 98% of the vote is reported. Scrolling over the neighborhoods to see where the remaining outstanding votes are offers some hope for Thompson.

In DBD's favor, only 84% of Carroll Garden--which as someone pointed out, is the area he represented in City Council--is in, and he's dominating with over a 55% share so far (and Thompson running a weak 3rd, fwiw).

Van Cordtland Village in northern Bronx has a similar share in, where DeBlasio currently matches his citywide total of 40.2%. There are a number of neighborhoods with over 90% reported, and although he's leading in almost all, there are a number he's falling short of 40% (e.g. Richmond Hill--he's leading with 97% in, but with only a 33.6% share). Still, it appears there are more such neighborhoods where he's substantially enough over 40% (e.g. Morningside Heights, Dumbo) to probably make a net percentage gain from where he currently stands, though the cumulative aid from VCV and these mostly-reported neighborhoods combined will likely be minimal.

From there, things start to look brighter for Thompson. The worst "offenders" for outstanding votes are a strip of neighborhoods from Washington Heights (South) running east across the river to East Tremont (Highbridge, Mount Hope and East/West Concourse). They have anywhere from 78% to only 53% reported according to the map. DeBlasio is probably still narrowly beating Thompson in the total vote of these combined 5 neighborhoods, but he's only reaching the mid to high 30's, percentage-wise.

If the reported trends continue, Carroll Gardens and the other mostly reported neighborhoods won't be enough to keep his vote % from dropping when those (relatively) Thompson-friendly neighborhoods fully report. Considering how close the margin is, it may very well be enough to ultimately drop DeBlasio below 40%.

Again, this is assuming the numbers on the NYT's neighborhood map is correct, and keep in mind their precinct map has numerous obvious errors (like Cedrico getting over 97% of the vote in an 1100+ vote precinct, etc.).

EDIT: Believe it or not, the map's listing of some of these neighborhood's reported vote in is actually being updated regularly. The reported vote for some of the Bronx neighborhoods I mentioned just jumped several percentage points. DeBlasio maintains at 40.2% overall for now....

There are also at least 19,000 absentee votes that haven't been counted at all and won't be until Monday.  De Blasio may do better or worse than his citywide average in the absentees.  They don't always fall the same way as the election day vote.  There also should be some provisional ballots which may or may not be counted in the end.

But I think de Blasio will end up with over 40% and avoid a runoff.  He's at 40.24% with 99% in.  There simply weren't many votes in the missing Bronx precincts (where de Blasio performed poorly) compared with the other precincts that were out.  And assuming there are 19,000 good absentees, de Blasio would only need to win 32% of them to stay above 40%.  If all 47,000 outstanding absentees are returned and Democratic and valid,  he'd need to win 37% of them.  So the range is 32-37%, with the likely needed result on the lower end because not all absentees will be returned, Democratic and vaild.

[Badger]

Good analysys cinyc. I didn't mention the absetees as, unlike outstanding votes from largely reported neighborhoods, they're much harder to predict likely trends.

That said, anyone have any insight as to likely trends for absentees and/or provisionals?

[patrick1]

What's with DeBlasio apparently winning Borough Park? I was also going to ask about all the Thompson strength in Staten Island. Interestingly DeBlasio won the North Shore, though doesn't that also have lots of Park Slope/Greenwich Village style liberals?

Eh, I would peg DeBlasio's strength in Northern Staten Island more on the diversity of the area. A lot of the 'older school' whites remaining in area would likely not be participating in a D primary and you have large black population around St George especially- and we know that deBlasio did great there.

[Lief 🗽]

Good analysys cinyc. I didn't mention the absetees as, unlike outstanding votes from largely reported neighborhoods, they're much harder to predict likely trends.

That said, anyone have any insight as to likely trends for absentees and/or provisionals?

I suspect they'll hurt de Blasio. 1) A lot of them were made before de Blasio had surged (though IIRC his surge started a few weeks ago so this might be less of an issue), and 2) A lot of them are organized by union people, who mostly endorsed Thompson over BDB with a few exceptions.

[cinyc]

Good analysys cinyc. I didn't mention the absetees as, unlike outstanding votes from largely reported neighborhoods, they're much harder to predict likely trends.

That said, anyone have any insight as to likely trends for absentees and/or provisionals?

I suspect they'll hurt de Blasio. 1) A lot of them were made before de Blasio had surged (though IIRC his surge started a few weeks ago so this might be less of an issue), and 2) A lot of them are organized by union people, who mostly endorsed Thompson over BDB with a few exceptions.

New York is a for-cause absentee state.  I suspect a lot of the absentees are from nursing homes and the like, which could split any which way.  De Blasio was at exactly 40% among seniors in the exit poll.

The problem for Thompson is that he needs to really suppress de Blasio in the absentees to win.  And as de Blasio's percentage continues to increase (now up to 40.33%), the chances get even slimmer.   The range of what de Blasio needs to remain over 40% has been lowered to 29% (if only the 19,000 absentees currently in are valid and Democratic) to 36% (if all 47,000 absentees are returned, Democratic and valid - highly unlikely).  Absentees need to be postmarked yesterday but can be delivered until at least next week.

Of course, that doesn't take into account the remaining 48 precincts, any provisional ballots not yet counted and any canvassing errors (which are more likely than in recent elections because NYC used the old lever machines where columns and digits can easily get transposed).

[bedstuy]

Could Thompson just concede and let us avoid this pointless process?

[cinyc]

Could Thompson just concede and let us avoid this pointless process?

Yes - but given his recent statements that every vote should be counted, he's not going to.  There is precedence for conceding.  Anthony Weiner conceded the 2005 mayor's race to Fernando Ferrer when it wasn't clear if there would be a runoff.

In any event, there will be a citywide Democratic runoff election in three weeks, anyway, because no Public Advocate candidate received more than 40%.

[© tweed]

Yes - but given his recent statements that every vote should be counted, he's not going to.  There is precedence for conceding.  Anthony Weiner conceded the 2005 mayor's race to Fernando Ferrer when it wasn't clear if there would be a runoff.

Weiner was facing an uphill at best general election if he did somehow win and protecting his future, knowing he'd run for mayor again and that he'd have just as good if not much better shot at winning.  Thompson is in no such position.

[Eraserhead]

Many prominent Democrats are urging Thompson to call it a day:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/nyregion/for-thompson-pressure-to-let-de-blasio-win.html?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytmetro

[Flake]

So the night when Weiner lost his campaign for mayor, the woman he sexted came to his campaign headquarters at the time of his concession speech. Seems awkward right? But that’s not the last of it.

He went into the McDonalds close by with this woman, and they were both in there for a few minutes.

After the incident of whatever-the--they-were-doing, he went to his car and flipped the bird at the journalists from the inside of his car.

What a graceful way to leave politics. If he leaves politics (please dear god leave politics).

[Flake]

Also, I'm looking at the map, and there's a precinct between Riverdale and Washington Heights (District 72-050) and they voted for Credico by a huge margin, he won with 97.2% of the vote in that district and it accounted for 1/12 of his total votes.

[DINGO Joe]

Also, I'm looking at the map, and there's a precinct between Riverdale and Washington Heights (District 72-050) and they voted for Credico by a huge margin, he won with 97.2% of the vote in that district and it accounted for 1/12 of his total votes.

That has all the earmarks of someone keying in the wrong info.  Instead of 1102 votes, Credico probably had 2 votes. 

[DINGO Joe]

So the night when Weiner lost his campaign for mayor, the woman he sexted came to his campaign headquarters at the time of his concession speech. Seems awkward right? But that’s not the last of it.

He went into the McDonalds close by with this woman, and they were both in there for a few minutes.

After the incident of whatever-the--they-were-doing, he went to his car and flipped the bird at the journalists from the inside of his car.

What a graceful way to leave politics. If he leaves politics (please dear god leave politics).

Hopefully, her 15 minutes are up too

[Flake]

I think you're right.

[Badger]

I think you're right.

Yeah, like I said earlier the NYT precinct map has a number of mistakes like that, though that's probably their most egregious.