French referendum: exit poll in details

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not that it would matter much, but a poll about the EU constitution was finally conducted in Germany.

Support 59%
Oppose 15%
Undecided 26%

Polling institute: Infratest-dimap

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

May 6 & 7 (last Ipsos poll: April 29 & 30), 936

Meth: By phone, quota, stratification

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 50% (-3)
-no: 50% (+3)

-did not say: 20% (=)

Turnout: 61% (+2)

B) By party ID (be careful as usual...)

-left voters: yes: 43% (-3)
                   no: 57% (+3)

              -socialists: yes: 52% (-4)
                                no: 48% (+4)

-right voters: yes: 76% (-3)
                     no: 24% (+3)

              -UMP: yes: 77% (-3)
                        no: 23% (+3)

-extreme right voters: yes: 18% (-1)
                                    no: 82% (+1)


B) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 66% (=)
            -for "yes voters": 83% (-3)
            -for "no voters": 83% (+3)
-no: 14%
            -for yes voters: 17% (-3)
            -for no voters: 17% (+3)
-did not say: 20% (=)

C) The "sensitivity" of undecided voters

-yes: 24%
-no: 31%
-did not say: 45%

D) Do you wish a "yes win" or a "no win"?

-A "yes win": 41% (-5)
-A "no win": 42% (+7)
-Did not say: 17% (-2)

E) With the EU constitution, do you think that...(last poll: April 15 & 16)

-Life conditions will be better: 25% (-2)
-life conditions will be worse: 54% (-1)
-no change: 13% (+3)
-did not say: 8% (=)

F) A no win...

-would weak the position of France in Europe: 47% (+1)
-wouldn't weak...: 48% (+5)
-did not say: 5% (-6)

G)  Who are doing the best campaign?

-the "no leaders": 44% (+3)
-the "yes leaders": 33% (+1)
-none: 6% (-3)
-both of them: 3% (+1)


MY comment: thes "yes comeback" was (and is) due to the media propaganda. It fells down a little. The impact of the Jospin interviews fells down too. If it's week is a good week for the "yes" (end of war and reconcialition with Germany, the ratification by Germany), in theory, the next week will be a good week for the "no" with demonstrations at May 16 against the government.

PS: Good new for the "yes": French PM was at the hospital during several days. Good new for the "no": he has just left.
 

[Umengus]

CSA poll

May 7 & 9 (last CSA poll: April 30 and May 1,2), 1006

Meth: by phone, quota, stratification

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 51% (=)
-no: 49% (=)

-Turnout: 60% (+4)

B) By Party ID (be careful)

-extreme left: yes: 23%
                     no: 77%

-left: yes: 45% (+3)
        no: 55% (-3)
        -communists: yes: 12%
                              no: 88%

        -socialists: yes: 51%
                          no: 49%
   
        -green: yes: 41%
                     no: 59%

-right: yes: 76% (-3)
           no: 24% (+3)
          -UDF: yes: 73%
                    no: 27%

          -UMP: yes: 83%
                    no: 17%

          -RPF/MPF: yes: 33%
                           no: 67%

-extreme right: yes: 15%
                         no: 85%

-without party id/did not say: yes: 46%
                                                no: 54%

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

May 6 & 7 (last sofres poll: April 27 & 28), 1000

Meth: by phone, quota and stratification

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 52% (=)
-no: 48% (=)

B) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 69% (+6)
-no: 29% (+16!)

C) Are you interested by the referendum?

-yes: 68% (+7)
-no: 32% (-7)

[Umengus]

Holland referendum June 1st

De Hond Poll

Meth: By internet (margin of error: 3%)

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 37% (-1)
-no: 42% (+2)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Getting veeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy close

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In Germany there's a massive lead in favor.

[Bono]

In Germany there's a massive lead in favor.

To bad they wont have a referendum.

[minionofmidas]

In Germany there's a massive lead in favor.

We're used to not getting involved in these affairs...the general reaction in this country seems to be, "Well, EUish things have always worked out just well in the past, no matter what some have said. Besides, this has too much fine print. I refuse to care."

[Umengus]

Holland referendum June 1st

Interview-NSS poll

May, 600

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 22% (-8)
-no: 37% (+5)
-undecided: 41% (+3)

Turnout: 39% (+2)

Mijn kommentaar: god verdom!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

41% undecided? Ooh...

[Umengus]

I don't know very well Holland politics but I think that there is a great problem with (muslim) immigration.

[Beet]

I don't know very well Holland politics but I think that there is a great problem with (muslim) immigration.

Would the constitution somehow make it harder to restrict immigration?

[M]

If the constitution fails in some country, won't they just wait a while and then ask 'em again, and again, till they get the answer they like? That's how everything else works in the EU.

[Umengus]

I don't know very well Holland politics but I think that there is a great problem with (muslim) immigration.

Would the constitution somehow make it harder to restrict immigration?

Constitution says no controls at the internals borders (ArticleIII-166).

And there is also the problem of Turkey.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know very well Holland politics but I think that there is a great problem with (muslim) immigration.

Would the constitution somehow make it harder to restrict immigration?

Constitution says no controls at the internals borders (ArticleIII-166).

But that's already the case anyways.
What we need - what is indeed the logical first step after Schengen - but definitely won't happen anytime soon, is standardized immigration and work-permit rules across the EU (okay, across the Schengen area). Legal status in one Schengen country should automatically entail legal status across the area.
As I said, not gonna happen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Constitution was passed today by the German Bundestag.

Yes: 569
No: 23
Abstain: 2
Not Voting: 7

Of the "Nay" votes, 20 came from ranks of the the CDU/CSU, two from the PDS (they only have two MP´s) and one from an independent (formerly CDU).

[Umengus]

Constitution was passed today by the German Bundestag.

Yes: 569
No: 23
Abstain: 2
Not Voting: 7

Of the "Nay" votes, 20 came from ranks of the the CDU/CSU, two from the PDS (they only have two MP´s) and one from an independent (formerly CDU).

A parody of democracy...

[Notre Dame rules!]

Constitution was passed today by the German Bundestag.

Yes: 569
No: 23
Abstain: 2
Not Voting: 7

Of the "Nay" votes, 20 came from ranks of the the CDU/CSU, two from the PDS (they only have two MP´s) and one from an independent (formerly CDU).

A parody of democracy...

how so?

[minionofmidas]

Probably because he thinks such important things should be voted on by the people.
Or maybe just because there wasn't a single defector voting his conscience from the government ranks.
The CDU/CSU leadership would have much preferred it if there hadn't been any on their side, either, btw. They were trying pretty hard to convince as many as possible.

[Umengus]

Probably because he thinks such important things should be voted on by the people.

exactly

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

May 9 & 10 (last poll: May 6 & 7), 1000

Meth: by phone, quotas and stratification

A) Do you approve the EU constiutiton?

-yes: 52% (=)
-no: 48% (=)

-did not say: 27% (-1)

B) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 69% (=)
-no: 29% (=)
-without opinion: 2% (=)

C) Are you interested by the referendum?

-yes: 69% (+1)
-no: 31% (-1)

D) By Party ID

-Left voters: yes: 43%
                    no: 57%
               -socialists: -yes: 50%
                                 -no: 50%

-Right voters: yes: 68%
                       no: 32%
               -UDF: yes: 70%
                         no: 30%

               -UMP: yes: 81%
                          no: 19%

-Extreme right voters: yes: 7%
                                    no: 93%

[Umengus]

The Dutch referendum June 1st

A Government (?) poll

Last days (last poll: one month ago), 800

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 39% (-12)
-no: 40% (+10)

Turnout: 81% (?)

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

May 12 & 13 (last poll May 3 & 4), 858

Meth: by phone, quota and stratification

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 46% (-4)
-no: 54% (+4)

-Did not say: 12% (+3)

B) Are your sure of your vote?

-yes: 72% (-4)
        -yes voters: 67% (-7)
        -no voters: 76% (-1)

-no: 28% (+4)
        -yes voters: 33% (+7)
        -no voters: 24% (+1)

C) By party ID

-left voters: yes: 36% (-11)
                    no: 64% (+11)
             -socialists voters: yes: 37% (-17)
                                          no: 63% (+17)

More coming soon...

Comments of the Ifop pollster: The rise of the "no" amongst left voters is due to 2 things: the "Pentecote Monday" confusion (last year, it's was a "day off", this year it's a work day). People are not happy (but last year, they supported the measure (the goal of the measure is to finance a fund for old people). Today, they are against).

The second thing, says the pollster, is the entry in the campaign of Laurent Fabius, Former socialist PM and a leader of the "no".

My comment: polls are erratic

[Umengus]

Dutch referendum

De Hond poll, thousands internet users and corrected to be representative.

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 45% (-2)
-no: 55% (+2)

MoE: 3%