French referendum: exit poll in details

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The second thing, says the pollster, is the entry in the campaign of Laurent Fabius, Former socialist PM and a leader of the "no".

[Umengus]

The second thing, says the pollster, is the entry in the campaign of Laurent Fabius, Former socialist PM and a leader of the "no".

Some people say that he's just an opportunist... the truth is not far

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

May 12 & 13, 1016

Meth: by phone,...

Who is the best "no leader"?

-Laurent Fabius (socialist): 40%
-Marie-George Buffet (communist): 32%
-Philippe De Villiers (souverainist-right): 31%
-Olivier Besancenot (extreme left): 30%
-Jean Marie Le Pen ("extreme right"): 25%

Who is the best "yes leader"?

-Nicolas Sarkozy (right): 46%
-Jacques Chirac (President): 35%
-Francois Hollande (socialist): 24%
-Francois Bayrou (center-right): 23%
-Jean Pierre Raffarin (PM): 21%

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

May 13 & 14 (last ipsos poll: May 6 & 7), 972

Meth: By phone, quota, stratification

1) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 49% (-1)
-no: 51% (+1)

-Did not say: 22% (+2)
-Turnout: 58% (-3)

2) By party ID (be careful)

-left voters: yes: 41% (-2)
                   no: 59% (+2)
                   -socialists: yes: 50% (-2)
                                     no: 50% (+2)

-right voters: yes: 72% (-4)
                      no: 28% (+4)
                    -UMP: yes: 72% (-5)
                              no: 28% (+5)

-extreme right voters: yes: 14% (-4)
                                    no: 86% (+4)

2) Is it your final vote?

-yes: 66% (=)
               -for yes voters: 83% (=)
               -for no voters: 85% (+2)
-no: 12% (-2)
               -for yes voters: 17% (=)
               -for no voters: 15% (-2)
-Did not say: 22% (+2)

3) The sensitivity of the undecided voters

-yes: 22% (-2)
-no: 23% (-8)
-did not say: 55% (+10)

4) Do you prefer a yes win or a no win?

-a "yes win": 39% (-2)
-a "no win": 44% (+2)
-did not say: 17% (=)

5) If the "no" wins, do you think that there will be a new negociation?

-yes: 62%
-no: 30%
-did not say: 8%

6) The knowledge of the Constitution (last poll April 1 & 2)

- entirely read it: 12% (+7)   yes: 12% (+6)
                                              no: 13% (+6)
                                              did not say: 8% (+7)

-Some extracts: 46% (+27)  yes: 46% (+23)
                                             no: 49% (+25)
                                             did not say: 43% (+22)

- Not read it but informed on principles: 30% (-9)
                                              yes: 36% (-14)
                                              no: 28% (-13)
                                              did not say: 26% (+1)

- no information on the Constitution: 11% (-25)
                                              yes: 6% (-14)
                                              no: 10% (-19)
                                              did not say: 21% (-41)

7) For people who have read some extracts, the Constitution is...(last poll: April 1 & 2)

-very good: 2% (=)
-good: 45% (-8)
-bad: 34% (+5)
-very bad: 10% (-1)
-did not say: 9% (+4)


Comments of the pollster:

-The decisive thing will be the turnout of the "no voters" (not a surprise). If it's like in April 2002 (mobilization in the last week), the "no" should win)

-It's the third inversion of tendency (is it english?)

-the "no" will be very strong at extreme (not a surprise).

-the "yes" campaign is, for now, a failure.

-"no voter": popular and active
 "yes voter": 60+, rich people, skilled

-people think that the "yes" will win. Not a good thing for a "yes momentum" last week says Pollster. 

-people have worries if the yes wins.

-the social environment has lots of incidences. There is also a fear of tomorrow.

-Renegociation is possible for voters.

-A reading of the constitution is not a advantage for the "yes" (its a surprise. Lors of "yes leaders" think and say that if you read the text, you will agree)

-The "no" has lots of advantages but does not benefit from it yet fully.

My comment: you can observe a decrease (-7% in 15 days) of the "yes" amongst right voters. Giacometti, Ipsos pollster, said before that socialists had to vote at 55% to see a "yes win". The great question will be the turnout: if it's a good turnout (maybe 70%, like in 2002)), I think that the "no" will win.

I made a prediction on the basis of 2002 results (16 candidates, good to have a effective overview of the french population). I will give my prediction in details later. But my result (not scientific of course) is a "no win" with 51%

 

[Umengus]

CSA poll (18th poll!)

May 14 & 16 (last poll May 7 & 9), 1002

Meth: by phone, quotas, stratification

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 49% (-2)
-no: 51% (+2)

Turnout: 63% (+3)

B) By party ID (be careful, especially when *)

-extreme left*: yes: 11%
                        no: 89%
-left: yes: 44%
        no: 56%
          -communists*: yes: 17%
                                  no: 83%
          -socialists: yes: 49%
                            no: 51%
          -green: yes: 32%
                     no: 68%

-right: yes: 74%
           no: 26%
           -UDF: yes: 73%
                     no: 27%
           -UMP: yes: 82%
                     no: 18%
           -RPF/MPF*: yes: 18%
                              no: 84%

-extreme right*: yes: 13%
                           no: 87%

-without party id: yes: 41%
                             no: 59%

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

May 11, 12, 13 (last poll: May 9 & 10); 1000

Meth: face to face, quotas, stratification

1) Are you interested by the referendum?

-yes: 60% (-9)
-no: 40% (+9)

2) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-5)
-no: 53% (+5)

-did not say: 25% (-3)

3) By party ID

-left and extreme left voters: yes: 41%
                                               no: 59%
               -Communist: yes: 11%
                                    no: 89%                
               -socialists: yes: 46%
                                 no: 54%
                -green: yes: 51%
                             no: 49%

-right and extreme right voters: yes: 61%
                                                   no: 39%

                     -UMP: yes: 72%
                                no: 28%

                      -UDF: yes: 75%
                                no: 25%
               
                      -extreme right: yes: 13%
                                               no: 87%

-without party ID: yes: 37%
                             no: 63%
 
4) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 77% (+8)
-no: 21% (-8)

My comment: be careful with sofres poll. Bad reputation.

[ATFFL]

Comments of the pollster:

-It's the third inversion of tendency (is it english?)

-the "no" will be very strong at extreme (not a surprise).

-"no voter": popular and active
 "yes voter": 60+, rich people, skilled

-the social environment has lots of incidences. There is also a fear of tomorrow.

Let me help with some of the translation again.  I think "third inversion of a tendency" means "third change in the trend."  First "no" had all the momentum and "yes" was collapsing.  Then "yes" rebounded to get back to even or a slight lead.  Now "no" has the momentum again, or, at least, is firming up support.

I'm pretty sure he meant "extreme right" since the left wing seemst to be favoring "yes" or evenly split.

I'm not sure what he means by the no voters being popular.  Populist, maybe.  Not real sure here.

Not clear on "the social environment has lots of incidences. There is also a fear of tomorrow." either.    Could mean indicators showing how people will vote.  That people who are fearful of tomorrow are more or less likely to support the EU Constitution.

Thanks again for posting all of these polls.

[Gustaf]

Generally fear for the future indicates more scepticism to change.

And, yes, great thanks for all those polls.

[minionofmidas]

"Popular" = working class, I'd guess.

[Umengus]

"Popular" = working class, I'd guess.

indeed. Difficult to know the real number of working class in France. Some people think that it's 70%, others people say that there is a great middl-class (80%),... I think that it's the greatest politic problem in France and in Europe.

[Umengus]

Comments of the pollster:

-It's the third inversion of tendency (is it english?)

-the "no" will be very strong at extreme (not a surprise).

-"no voter": popular and active
 "yes voter": 60+, rich people, skilled

-the social environment has lots of incidences. There is also a fear of tomorrow.

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Correct

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Extreme left too. There is a difference between extreme left and communists/socialists/green (I know, it's difficult to admit for you but it's Europe)

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There are lots of social problems in France. This country is in crisis: look at unemployement ( officially +10%), insecurity in the streets ("cités"), immigration, justice, inequality between rich and poor,.... Lots of people think that the country is on a bad track. It was different before.

In fact, the French situation is the same than in Belgium. IMO, it's the best explanation to explain why Le pen was second in 2002. It's the best explanation to explain a part of the "no success" in France. But a part only.

[ATFFL]

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Extreme left too. There is a difference between extreme left and communists/socialists/green (I know, it's difficult to admit for you but it's Europe)

Oh, I know that.  You guys get some real whackos on either end out there.  Thought he meant just the righties since there was no extreme left in the partisan breakdown.

There are lots of social problems in France. This country is in crisis: look at unemployement ( officially +10%), insecurity in the streets ("cités"), immigration, justice, inequality between rich and poor,.... Lots of people think that the country is on a bad track. It was different before.

In fact, the French situation is the same than in Belgium. IMO, it's the best explanation to explain why Le pen was second in 2002. It's the best explanation to explain a part of the "no success" in France. But a part only.

Gotchya.  I was not clear on that was how the people were now percieving it since the government tries to give the impression everything is under control.  'course, all governments do that.

Like I said, you get some real characters out there.  THough a LePen victory would have lead to some interestng outcomes.  Like the US going to war with France over Iraq. 

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, the successes of France's Trotskyite parties recently are...weird. And pretty much unparalleled the world over.

[Angel of Death]

I think you guys should start paying close attention to the Dutch. There's a good chance now they'll reject the constitution even if the French were to approve it three days earlier.
It's only a consultative referendum, but if the turnout is above 30 percent, then the parliament has said it'll accept the result.

[Umengus]

Yeah, the successes of France's Trotskyite parties recently are...weird. And pretty much unparalleled the world over.

History can explain that I think: After the WWII, French communists were the biggest party in France. Lots of workmen, employees,... voted for this party. In the same time, left-moderate catched teachers, middle class,... In 1969 presidential election, French communists did 20% but not enough to run at the second turn. At this time, France is gaullist, centrist or communist. Left moderate is very weak.

Communists and left moderates understand that to win the power in the "V Republique system", they must be united. And they did it (not in a party of course but in an agreement: "le programme commun"). The result of this is the fact that socialists become bigger than communists. In 1981, France Mitterand becomes President. There are communists ministers in his government. In 1997, communists are in the Jospin government but are weak, even if they are essential to have the majority. In 2002 presidential election, Robert Hue, communist candidate, do 3,9 %.

Hence, where are the "communists voters"? at extreme right (Le pen was first amongst workmen and unemployemed in 2002)  and at extreme left: Laguiller (5%) and Besancenot (4%). Besancenot is a young postman. He was unknown in 2002 but he did a "very good" campaign (1% in polls at the beginning, 4% in last).

[minionofmidas]

Yeah...in a sense it's not really unparalleled. There's left-wing fringe parties (that aren't all that fringey) almost everywhere in Europe after all. The French Communists, and the Greens too, are reliable partners of the Socialists, often with electoral pacts. The left-wing protest vote goes somewhere else as a response...

[Umengus]

BVA poll

May 18 (last poll: April 27,28,29,30/face to face), 963

Meth: by phone, quotas, stratification

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 47% (-1)
-no: 53% (+1)

-Did not say: 19% (-9%)

B) By Party ID

-left voters: yes: 34% (-12)
                    no: 66% (+12)         
               
                 -socialist voters: yes: 47% (-6)
                                            no: 53% (+6)

-right voters: yes: 66% (+11)
                      no: 34% (-11)

                  -UDF: yes: 84% (+11)
                            no: 16% (-11)
         
                  -UMP: yes: 84% (+6)
                            no: 16% (-6)

C) If the "no" wins, will there be a renegociation?

-yes: 69%
-no: 22%
-did not say: 9%

D) Popularity of the President (last poll: in april)

Have you a good opinion of Jacques Chirac?

-yes: 39% (-9)
-no: 56%
-Did not say: 5%

E) Popularity of Jean Pierre Raffarin (last poll: in april)

Have you a good opinion of Jean Pierre Raffarin?

-yes: 21% (-7)
-no: 72% (+8)
-Did not say: 7% (-1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Minister criticised Chirac over referendum

Patrick Wintour, chief political correspondent
Friday May 20, 2005
The Guardian

A no vote in next week's French referendum on the European constitution would be caused by the inept leadership and unpopularity of the French president, Jacques Chirac, Tony Blair was warned last month in a memo drawn up by his then Europe minister, Denis MacShane.

The document, which was circulated to key ministers including the foreign secretary, Jack Straw, and the industry secretary, Patricia Hewitt, was leaked yesterday at a sensitive moment in the French referendum campaign.


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Its publication will embarrass Downing Street, which has been anxious not to appear to intervene in the close-fought French battle.
The memo, dated April 8 and also sent to the prime minister's European adviser, Kim Darroch, accused the French political class of a "lack of leadership in explaining, defending, promoting the EU ... not as extension of France and French interests".

"Bashing a commission president is now a French as much as it was a British pastime," it claimed.

Mr MacShane, a knowledgeable pro-European, lambasted the French yes campaign for "the incoherence of its campaign with its mixed messages and lack of enthusiasm or positive argument for the treaty."

He also claimed that French ministers were undertaking a belated bid to turn the position around by "making crude UK-bashing arguments".

In his note Mr MacShane, who lost his job as Europe minister in the reshuffle - after the memo was written - went on to urge the prime minister to change the tone of British relations with Europe.

"[Britain's] EU presidency in 1998 was when the new Labour government walked on water," he said. "That is no longer the case ... John Bull and Whitehall-speak needs to be parked for the six months of the presidency.

"Britain's Europe policy will need a step change to move away from the defensive-boastful language of red line, vetoes, [and claiming] Britain is way ahead of the rest of Europe," he wrote.

"If the UK is to rise to the responsibility of helping to lead Europe out of crisis we will have to find more of Churchill's magnanimity and worry less about the Rothermere-Telegraph shadows in the cave".

If France did vote yes, Mr MacShane added, Britain would have to run a distinctive pro-Euro campaign in which the comedian Eddie Izzard, Sir Digby Jones, director general of the CBI, and Brendan Barber, general secretary of the TUC, would be more important than any cabinet minister.

French opposition to the constitution stemmed from the hugely unpopular EU enlargement, he said, which French voters believe is diverting "their CAP cash to eastern Europe and the Balkans".

He argued that the French regarded Turkey, a poor Muslim nation, as "a threat to secular, rich, nationalist France".

He also warned Mr Blair that there was no prospect of a successful renegotiation of the treaty in the event of a French no vote, a view widely shared in the Foreign Office.

He claimed that in the event of a no, "the treaty ratification timetable will be dead.

"The Dutch referendum is on June 1, but whichever way they vote will be irrelevant," he wrote. "The Danish ambassador told me yester day there would be no point in having the referendum planned for September 27 in Denmark. His fellow Nordic and Baltic colleagues at the breakfast all agreed the treaty would be dead."

He added that if French voters do reject the constitution French politicians would demand an alternative that Britain could not sign up to.

"They would demand a wholly unacceptable rewriting of the treaty in favour of protectionist, illiberal and anti-business policies."

Signs that the French intend to take a relatively aggressive stance in event of a no vote were confirmed yesterday when Mr Chirac led new calls for a renegotiation of Britain's EU budget rebate, first negotiated by Margaret Thatcher.

President Chirac has met his German and Polish colleagues to demand changes to the £3bn British rebate as a matter of urgency.

Mr Chirac, eager to shore up his authority in the event of a no vote, is also likely to demand a change of tone in British calls for a deregulated labour market. Some in Paris may also call on France to revert to its traditional close relationship with Germany.

In a speech today, the new Europe minister, Douglas Alexander, will show no sign of planning to relent on Britain's pro-economic reform campaign in the EU.

He will promise that the British presidency, which begins in July, "will take action to help business by advancing the better regulation agenda. We will act to assist the financial services industry."

[Umengus]

1) Macshane is foolish too. Not a good thing to say that opponents are "neo-cons" (in english: neo-stupid)

2) Bashing a commission president is now a French..."

It's correct but who is responsible? Barroso because he gave only a small job to a french in his commission and he carries out a neoliberal politic, very unpopular in France or Jacques Chirac?

Pollsters say that French are not against Europe, but are against a neoliberal Europe (neoliberalism in France: 4%, like communism!). The EU constitution being liberal, not impossible that they vote against. It's logical in fact...

Lots of foreigners say that the EU constitution is a "French constitution" (because the writer is Former President Giscard D'estaing) but you must know that it's not the case for French people. Not a surprise, when you know the ditch between elites and people.

[Bono]

1) Macshane is foolish too. Not a good thing to say that opponents are "neo-cons" (in english: neo-stupid)

2) Bashing a commission president is now a French..."

It's correct but who is responsible? Barroso because he gave only a small job to a french in his commission and he carries out a neoliberal politic, very unpopular in France or Jacques Chirac?

Pollsters say that French are not against Europe, but are against a neoliberal Europe (neoliberalism in France: 4%, like communism!). The EU constitution being liberal, not impossible that they vote against. It's logical in fact...

Lots of foreigners say that the EU constitution is a "French constitution" (because the writer is Former President Giscard D'estaing) but you must know that it's not the case for French people. Not a surprise, when you know the ditch between elites and people.

It is funny, that in france the EU constitution is "neoliberal"(whatever that means), and in the UK the constiution is neo-social democrat.
Just goes to show how different it can be depending on your point of view.
Personally, I don't agree with most arguments made in France against the EU constitution, but as long as it gives the "NO" a win, I don't care.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1) Macshane is foolish too

Oh yes. He's known for it

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Which is more or less MacShane's point

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

May 19 & 20, 845

Meth: by phone,...

A) Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 48% (+2)
-no: 52% (-2)

-Did not say: 8% (-4)

B) Are you sure of your vote?

-yes: 78% (+6)
-no: 22% (-6)

[Umengus]

Ifop poll (Languedoc Roussillon and Aveyron, south of France)

May 11-16, 2004 (325 in Aveyron, 325 in Lozère, 325 in Aude, 350 in Hérault and 350 in guard)

Meth: By phone, quotas and stratification

1) Do you approve the EU constitution? (Languedoc-Roussillon)

-yes: 47%
-no: 53%

-did not say: 16%

2) Do you approve the EU constitution? (Aveyron)

-yes: 46%
-no: 54%

-did not say: 20%

3) By "departements" (subdivisions of L-R)

A) Aude

-yes: 44%
-no: 56%

-did not say: 13%

B) Gard

-yes: 39%
-no: 61%

-did not say: 19%

C) Hérault

-yes: 53%
-no: 47%

-did not say: 16%

D) Lozère

-yes: 52%
-no: 48%

-did not say: 21%

E) Pyrénées Orientales

-yes: 46%
-no: 54%

-did not say: 13%

4) Comparaison with Maastricht referendum

-national level: yes: 51%
                         no: 49%

-languedoc-Roussillon: yes: 46,4%
                                     no: 53,6%

5) Have you read the constitution?

-yes: 62% (16 ++ 46+)
-no: 34%
-don't have: 4%

6) Factors of the votes in France (question: for the following topics, are there much , a little, or not significiant in your vote?)

Answer: much significiant

-Economic and Social situation in France: 58%
-European construction: 59%
-Turkey: 34%
-Fear of Europe too liberal:not asked
-Chirac: 27%
-Raffarin: 23%

7) Factors of the vote in Languedoc Roussillon

-economic and social situation in France: 57%
-European Construction: 55%
-Constitution content: 53%
-Fear of Europe too liberal: 41%
-Turkey: 34%
-Chirac: 23%
-Raffarin: 20%

8 ) Factors of the vote in Aveyron

-economic and social situation: 50%
-Euroepean construction: 43%
-Constitution content: 40%
-Fear of Europe too liberal: 33%
-Turkey: 28%
-Chirac: 20%
-Raffarin: 18%

9) Factors of the vote of "yes voters" in L-R and Aveyron

-European construction: 77%
-Constitution content: 55%
-economic and social situation in France: 46%
-Chirac: 24%
-Fear of Europe too liberal: 23%
-Turkey: 23%
-Raffarin: 16%

10) Factors of the vote of "no voters" in L-R and Aveyron

-Social and economic situtation in France: 66%
-Fear of Europe too liberal: 58%
-Constitution content: 49%
-Turkey: 40%
-European construction: 37%
-Raffarin: 24%
-Chirac: 22%

[Umengus]

Dutch referendum June 1

A) NSS-interview

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 37%
-no: 63%

B) De Hond poll

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 40%
-no: 60%

[Angel of Death]

Dutch referendum June 1

A) NSS-interview

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 37%
-no: 63%

B) De Hond poll

Do you approve the EU constitution?

-yes: 40%
-no: 60%

TNS NIPO

Expected turnout: 38% (enough for Parliament)

All eligible voters
Yes: 18% (-4%)
No: 36% (+12%)

Certain voters
Yes: 27% (+1%)
No: 54% (+16%)