Wisconsin Megathread

[MasterJedi]

The generally conservative Wisconsin State Journal endorses Rebecca Dallet.

Nice

He's going to lose again, they can't hold it for a hypothetical bill passing.

[Gass3268]

The generally conservative Wisconsin State Journal endorses Rebecca Dallet.

Nice

He's going to lose again, they can't hold it for a hypothetical bill passing.

He really doesn't want the attack ads this fall of canceling an election that was already called.

[MasterJedi]

The generally conservative Wisconsin State Journal endorses Rebecca Dallet.

Nice

He's going to lose again, they can't hold it for a hypothetical bill passing.

He really doesn't want the attack ads this fall of canceling an election that was already called.

You have to wonder if Republicans are thinking they will be in power forever. They probably think they will be, then when it turns they will go agro about all the changes they made.

[windjammer]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

[YE]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

Totally ignoring Supreme court/special results I see.

[Gass3268]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

The Driftless area is very swingy and they didn't crater there.

Senate is probably Lean R, Assembly is probably Likely R, but closer to Safe.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

Totally ignoring Supreme court/special results I see.

A "quasi-nonpartisan" Supreme Court race and local races don't change the fact that Walker's approval actually took a bounce early this year and as much as people hate him, they're not that motivated to turn him away. (Remember the stupidity that was the recall?)

[Dr. Arch]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

The Driftless area is very swingy and they didn't crater there.

Senate is probably Lean R, Assembly is probably Likely R, but closer to Safe.

This. Ignore the TX hack.

[redjohn]

Can WI democrats flip WI House and WI senate?

Severely unlikely, as they are packed in Dane County and Milwaukee, and seem to have cratered in the Driftless Area due to Clintonian/Sunbelt Billionaire identity politics.

Totally ignoring Supreme court/special results I see.

A "quasi-nonpartisan" Supreme Court race and local races don't change the fact that Walker's approval actually took a bounce early this year and as much as people hate him, they're not that motivated to turn him away. (Remember the stupidity that was the recall?)

To the contrary, the results of next Tuesday's Supreme Court race will tell us quite a bit about how the Wisconsin electorate is feeling. If Dallet wins (which she likely will), the margin will be telling, as well as whether turnout is still depressed in critical parts of the state. Driftless area can flip much quicker than some would expect. Will it be enough to flip either chamber this fall? We'll see. But don't write it off; it is possible (even if currently unlikely).

[Virginiá]

A "quasi-nonpartisan" Supreme Court race and local races don't change the fact that Walker's approval actually took a bounce early this year and as much as people hate him, they're not that motivated to turn him away. (Remember the stupidity that was the recall?)

A caveat being that his elections mostly took place under a Democratic president whose popularity was middling at best and comfortably unpopular at worst. Who is president at the time of these elections does in fact matter, even for gubernatorial elections. It's why Republicans won almost 1,000 legislative seats under Obama, and gained Govs offices in each midterm. It's why they so easily held the House for 6+ years and flipped the Senate to great effect in 2014. Walker has never seemed like a particularly overpowering candidate. He won comfortably - in two waves and a recall in 2012 (June, not November), but never blew his opponent out of the water. So what happens if November is as bad for Republicans as it was for Democrats in, say, 2010 or 2014?

My point being that I think maybe you aren't addressing the orange elephant in the room - a presidential elephant that is always in the room for every partisan (and sometimes even non-partisan) election this country has. 2018's Wisconsin gubernatorial election will not be based entirely on candidate quality, for better or worse.

[Gass3268]

Walker gets slapped down again:

https://twitter.com/rvetterkind/status/979072895191273472

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/979075454379446274

[Landslide Lyndon]

Walker gets slapped down again:

https://twitter.com/rvetterkind/status/979072895191273472

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/979075454379446274

When will the assembly vote on the law that will overturn this decision?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/SJohnsonWPR/status/979078415964876800

[Gass3268]

Walker gets slapped down again:

https://twitter.com/rvetterkind/status/979072895191273472

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/979075454379446274

When will the assembly vote on the law that will overturn this decision?

Not sure on the exact date, but it will be after the date the court set as a deadline.

[Gass3268]

If the Supreme Court rules for Walker, I'd expect this to be the biggest issue going into Tuesday's Supreme Court race.

[GlobeSoc]

If the Supreme Court rules for Walker, I'd expect this to be the biggest issue going into Tuesday's Supreme Court race.

This is why I doubt that they'll rule for Walker - it would destroy Screnrock's chances a week out from the election. I severely doubt that the conservatives on the court bench are that dumb.

[Ebsy]

Why can't Scott Walker obey the law?

[GlobeSoc]

Why can't Scott Walker obey the law?

Paid for by the DGA

[MasterJedi]

Why can't Scott Walker obey the law?

The news even said he's scared of Democrats winning after the last special election and the Koch brothers told him no.

[GlobeSoc]

Why can't Scott Walker obey the law?

The news even said he's scared of Democrats winning after the last special election and the Koch brothers told him no.

I somehow didn't expect that, even though they are corrupt billionaires to the core.

[KingSweden]

Why can't Scott Walker obey the law?

The news even said he's scared of Democrats winning after the last special election and the Koch brothers told him no.

No as in “no more special elections” or “no more money for you”?

[MasterJedi]

Why can't Scott Walker obey the law?

The news even said he's scared of Democrats winning after the last special election and the Koch brothers told him no.

No as in “no more special elections” or “no more money for you”?

I would have to verify with the bill but I think it was to stop all special elections as being a waste of money and "against the voice of the people".

[Virginiá]

I do recall seeing it mentioned that Walker/Republicans do want to risk Democrats reducing their majorities any further in case SCOTUS forces them to redraw their maps. They want as many seats as possible when/if that comes, in case anyone bucks leadership. I can't recall if that was an opinion or heard as actual reasoning from one or more Republican legislators.

[Anna Komnene]

Please change it to "Denies." It's making me twitch.