Vote counting update thread

[DINGO Joe]

As for Ohio, it seems that the counties provide update after each county Board of Election certifies the results.  About 20 counties have completed the process, mostly smaller and most Republican counties.  Most of the big counties with the most votes left are slated to meet either Mon or Tue, so by Wed it'll be known.  The counties that have provide final results have only been accepting about 2/3rds of the ballots outstanding so overall that means closer to 200000 votes to be added overall vs the 300000 ballots outstanding.   Of the votes added Obama is running roughly 10% or more ahead of what election night results were.  For example the largest county to report thus far is Butler county which Romney won with about 62% of the votes, Obama won 3100 to 2950 in the votes added in the final results.

I'd guess that the margin of victory for Obama will increase to above 150,000 votes and will be close the 3%

What do you think will happen to Obama's lead in Pennsylvania as the last votes are counted?

It will be interesting if the gap between Obama's lead in PA and OH is pretty small, such as less than 2% for example.

I don't think PA will change much--maybe back to 5.0 to 5.1%

[DINGO Joe]

He almost hasn't made any update since Wednesday.

It a Holiday, not much to update.

But California has, and he hasn't been keeping track of it.

There aren't that many nerds obsessing over the whole right now though--I count three, you, me and Andy.  Turkey is notorious for inducing sleep, so  let him enjoy his nap.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It seems that most of the provisional ballots that were counted in OH came from small counties (which are mostly Republican). When Cuyahoga comes in, Obama probably gains a lot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope Obama ends up over 3% in Ohio. That would be a huge disappointment otherwise.

[AndyAJS]

(Sorry if this is in the wrong thread):

Some PA details:

Counties won (using latest data):
Romney 55
Obama 13

Counties won by less than 5% (using latest data):

Obama (4):
Centre: 0.25%
Bucks: 1.16%
Northampton: 4.73%
Luzerne: 4.78%

Romney (3):
Chester: 0.40%
Berks: 0.99%
Mercer: 3.32%

[DINGO Joe]

Philly and other counties in PA are dropping their final vote counts into the interwebs and PA is up to a 5.4% margin.  Colorado actually had some R number come in that pulled it down slightly  to 5.4%.

[AndyAJS]

There are 958,311 unprocessed ballots in California according to the official website. Obama is currently on 7,525,158 in CA compared to 8,274,473 in 2008. He might not quite reach the same number of votes this time but I think he could get pretty close.

[DINGO Joe]

There are 958,311 unprocessed ballots in California according to the official website. Obama is currently on 7,525,158 in CA compared to 8,274,473 in 2008. He might not quite reach the same number of votes this time but I think he could get pretty close.

Unfortunately much of that info is outdated.  Probably less than 300,000 ballots left to be counted

[Tender Branson]

Michigan now has official results:

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http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/12GEN/01000000.html

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama has now got over 60% in California and is now leading in Riverside county.

[Antonio the Sixth]

California is really a huge surprise.

[Ebowed]

Obama has now got over 60% in California.

Mm, that would affect the prediction scores.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama has now got over 60% in California and is now leading in Riverside county.

Obama is now leading in the rich white Sunbelt while still getting decimated in coal country? Has America decided to collectively troll me?

[Oakvale]

Obama has now got over 60% in California and is now leading in Riverside county.

Obama is now leading in the rich white Sunbelt while still getting decimated in coal country? Has America decided to collectively troll me?

America decided to troll you when Obama handily won New Hampshire.

[Brittain33]

Is it possible for Obama to overtake in Fresno County or is it too late?

[Benj]

Obama has now got over 60% in California and is now leading in Riverside county.

Obama is now leading in the rich white Sunbelt while still getting decimated in coal country? Has America decided to collectively troll me?

Riverside County hasn't been rich or white in a couple of decades. It was 46% Hispanic at the 2010 census and has below-average per capita income. Voting patterns have just been slow to catch up to demographics (because a lot of the Hispanic residents are migrant farm workers in the Coachella Valley).

[nclib]

Looks like Obama has now won Latah, ID. Also TX and NH have now trended Romney.

[DINGO Joe]

Is it possible for Obama to overtake in Fresno County or is it too late?

The county website doesn't say how many votes are left to count, but based on statewide turnout vs 2008, I'd guess about 20,000.  Possible, yes, it'll be close .

[Benj]

Is it possible for Obama to overtake in Fresno County or is it too late?

The county website doesn't say how many votes are left to count, but based on statewide turnout vs 2008, I'd guess about 20,000.  Possible, yes, it'll be close .

It's not uniform, though. Fresno last reported new results before Thanksgiving (on 11/21) according to the SOS's website, but claims not to be finished. (Unfortunately, only a few counties, notably Alameda, claim to be finished counting, so it's not that helpful.)

I think Trinity County is the most likely to flip to Obama of all CA counties that could--it hasn't reported any new votes since election night, but surely there are at least a few provisionals and late absentees there, and Romney's only ahead by 55 votes (which, admittedly, is 1.09%, but the shifts have been bigger than that in most counties that have reported late votes). There were 6,430 votes in Trinity County in 2008, but only 5,030 have been counted so far this year.

Also worth watching to see if Stanislaus County goes to Obama >50%. He's at 49.95% right now.

[Holmes]

Obama has now got over 60% in California.

Mm, that would affect the prediction scores.

I'll take that extra point.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama now leads Ohio by 2.24% after some of the provisional ballots have begun to come in. Still waiting on the Cuyahoga dump though.

Edit: Now up to 2.27% as Stark County flips to Obama.

[Frodo]

Percentage-wise (rounded up), is it safe yet to conclude that President Obama won with 52% of the popular vote, and Romney is now Mr. 47%?  How close are we? 

[DINGO Joe]

Percentage-wise (rounded up), is it safe yet to conclude that President Obama won with 52% of the popular vote, and Romney is now Mr. 47%?  How close are we? 

The final percentage will be about 51.0-47.2.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like Obama has now won Latah, ID. Also TX and NH have now trended Romney.

Oh God, Texas never ceases to depress.

Seriously, what are Democrats waiting to start waking up their demographic potential?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Why did Obama just go under 50 in Florida again?