Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[IceSpear]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

McCord didn't run an abortion clinic. It's clearly going to be more of an issue if someone like Schwartz is the nominee. Please stop comparing apples to oranges, dude. You are even annoying people that are on your side.

Running an abortion clinic and possibly having ties to the Gosnell clinic is going to get far more coverage in a state race (especially in a state with restrictive abortion laws) over a national campaign where the narrative was about the economic collapse. You really have to stop comparing the two. Of course Corbett's record is going to be the main focus but you're living in a fantasy land if you think Schwartz's history in that "other field" (which I believe was wiped from her website. Must not be taking campaign advice from you) is going to get as much play as Obama's support for partial birth abortion in a Presidential campaign waged in the midst of a financial meltdown.

Plus, PA is more partisan in Presidential elections. Dems "come home" far more often than in state and local elections. 

Of course it's going to be "more of an issue" if Schwartz is the nominee. But the fact that people are acting like it will be the nail in the coffin of her campaign and nullify Corbett's 30% approval rating is hilarious. Yes, I'm sure the 37% of PA who thinks abortion should be illegal all/most of the time will be voting Corbett if Schwartz is the nominee, but since there's likely quite a bit of overlap between that 37% and the 30% of voters who approve of him, no big loss there. How is Schwartz running an abortion clinic going to turn off voters who think abortion should be legal all or most of the time? It isn't. Even "soft" pro-choice voters aren't going to think Corbett, who they already know and hate, is suddenly the lesser of two evils just because Schwartz ran an abortion clinic.

[henster]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

McCord didn't run an abortion clinic. It's clearly going to be more of an issue if someone like Schwartz is the nominee. Please stop comparing apples to oranges, dude. You are even annoying people that are on your side.

Running an abortion clinic and possibly having ties to the Gosnell clinic is going to get far more coverage in a state race (especially in a state with restrictive abortion laws) over a national campaign where the narrative was about the economic collapse. You really have to stop comparing the two. Of course Corbett's record is going to be the main focus but you're living in a fantasy land if you think Schwartz's history in that "other field" (which I believe was wiped from her website. Must not be taking campaign advice from you) is going to get as much play as Obama's support for partial birth abortion in a Presidential campaign waged in the midst of a financial meltdown.

Plus, PA is more partisan in Presidential elections. Dems "come home" far more often than in state and local elections. 

Of course it's going to be "more of an issue" if Schwartz is the nominee. But the fact that people are acting like it will be the nail in the coffin of her campaign and nullify Corbett's 30% approval rating is hilarious. Yes, I'm sure the 37% of PA who thinks abortion should be illegal all/most of the time will be voting Corbett if Schwartz is the nominee, but since there's likely quite a bit of overlap between that 37% and the 30% of voters who approve of him, no big loss there. How is Schwartz running an abortion clinic going to turn off voters who think abortion should be legal all or most of the time? It isn't. Even "soft" pro-choice voters aren't going to think Corbett, who they already know and hate, is suddenly the lesser of two evils just because Schwartz ran an abortion clinic.

We wouldn't be talking about abortion if McCord was the nominee the focus should be on Corbett's dismal record, Schwartz would just give Corbett the ability to divert from his record and talk about Schwartz's.

[IceSpear]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

McCord didn't run an abortion clinic. It's clearly going to be more of an issue if someone like Schwartz is the nominee. Please stop comparing apples to oranges, dude. You are even annoying people that are on your side.

Running an abortion clinic and possibly having ties to the Gosnell clinic is going to get far more coverage in a state race (especially in a state with restrictive abortion laws) over a national campaign where the narrative was about the economic collapse. You really have to stop comparing the two. Of course Corbett's record is going to be the main focus but you're living in a fantasy land if you think Schwartz's history in that "other field" (which I believe was wiped from her website. Must not be taking campaign advice from you) is going to get as much play as Obama's support for partial birth abortion in a Presidential campaign waged in the midst of a financial meltdown.

Plus, PA is more partisan in Presidential elections. Dems "come home" far more often than in state and local elections. 

Of course it's going to be "more of an issue" if Schwartz is the nominee. But the fact that people are acting like it will be the nail in the coffin of her campaign and nullify Corbett's 30% approval rating is hilarious. Yes, I'm sure the 37% of PA who thinks abortion should be illegal all/most of the time will be voting Corbett if Schwartz is the nominee, but since there's likely quite a bit of overlap between that 37% and the 30% of voters who approve of him, no big loss there. How is Schwartz running an abortion clinic going to turn off voters who think abortion should be legal all or most of the time? It isn't. Even "soft" pro-choice voters aren't going to think Corbett, who they already know and hate, is suddenly the lesser of two evils just because Schwartz ran an abortion clinic.

We wouldn't be talking about abortion if McCord was the nominee the focus should be on Corbett's dismal record, Schwartz would just give Corbett the ability to divert from his record and talk about Schwartz's.

I still don't think it will matter all that much against Corbett, whose deep unpopularity will drive the result of the race no matter what. Though a good argument for McCord would be that he'd probably get re-elected much easier than Schwartz would.

[Keystone Phil]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

McCord didn't run an abortion clinic. It's clearly going to be more of an issue if someone like Schwartz is the nominee. Please stop comparing apples to oranges, dude. You are even annoying people that are on your side.

Running an abortion clinic and possibly having ties to the Gosnell clinic is going to get far more coverage in a state race (especially in a state with restrictive abortion laws) over a national campaign where the narrative was about the economic collapse. You really have to stop comparing the two. Of course Corbett's record is going to be the main focus but you're living in a fantasy land if you think Schwartz's history in that "other field" (which I believe was wiped from her website. Must not be taking campaign advice from you) is going to get as much play as Obama's support for partial birth abortion in a Presidential campaign waged in the midst of a financial meltdown.

Plus, PA is more partisan in Presidential elections. Dems "come home" far more often than in state and local elections. 

Of course it's going to be "more of an issue" if Schwartz is the nominee. But the fact that people are acting like it will be the nail in the coffin of her campaign and nullify Corbett's 30% approval rating is hilarious. Yes, I'm sure the 37% of PA who thinks abortion should be illegal all/most of the time will be voting Corbett if Schwartz is the nominee, but since there's likely quite a bit of overlap between that 37% and the 30% of voters who approve of him, no big loss there. How is Schwartz running an abortion clinic going to turn off voters who think abortion should be legal all or most of the time? It isn't. Even "soft" pro-choice voters aren't going to think Corbett, who they already know and hate, is suddenly the lesser of two evils just because Schwartz ran an abortion clinic.

You can continue to cite one poll all you want but no one with more than two brain cells really believes only 37% of people in this state believe abortion should be illegal in most cases.

And it could still turn people off even if they identify as Pro Choice. People are fickle, my friend. Voting for someone that got her start in politics by running an abortion clinic might be a bridge too far for the "I'm Pro Choice but I'd never, ever personally get an abortion, it disgusts me, etc." folks.

By the way, Schwartz is going to catch hell for a lot more than just the clinic stuff. That's just what will personally turn people's stomachs. The Corbett campaign would have a blast with her championing of Obamacare, for starters.

[henster]

I'm pretty sure whoever the nominee is could defeat Corbett I just think McCord will have the easiest time and the biggest margin of victory. Schwartz may win by 5 or more points but I could see McCord pulling out a blowout.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I'm pretty sure whoever the nominee is could defeat Corbett I just think McCord will have the easiest time and the biggest margin of victory. Schwartz may win by 5 or more points but I could see McCord pulling out a blowout.

Underestimating Corbett is not a good idea, though I think it will be close.

[henster]

I'm pretty sure whoever the nominee is could defeat Corbett I just think McCord will have the easiest time and the biggest margin of victory. Schwartz may win by 5 or more points but I could see McCord pulling out a blowout.

Underestimating Corbett is not a good idea, though I think it will be close.

Underestimating Corbett? I'm basing this off every poll for the past few years, he's deeply unpopular and not recovering, his base doesn't even like him. Any competent candidate would easily defeat him. He has made countless gaffes not to mention the PennState sex scandal hanging over him I can't see how this will be close.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I'm pretty sure whoever the nominee is could defeat Corbett I just think McCord will have the easiest time and the biggest margin of victory. Schwartz may win by 5 or more points but I could see McCord pulling out a blowout.

Underestimating Corbett is not a good idea, though I think it will be close.

Underestimating Corbett? I'm basing this off every poll for the past few years, he's deeply unpopular and not recovering, his base doesn't even like him. Any competent candidate would easily defeat him. He has made countless gaffes not to mention the PennState sex scandal hanging over him I can't see how this will be close.

We'll see.  I think it was Phil (?) who noted the Dem primary battle is going to be costly and bloody.  A wounded warrior will emerge to fight Corbett.  His true pub base not liking Corbett doesn't scare me much, because they're never going to support the Dem candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Huge news on two fronts today.

Jack Wagner is now in the race for Governor. He obviously has a huge opening in his native western PA and anywhere that isn't the SE. He'll also get a good deal of institutional support even though the party is officially neutral (which surely had a lot to do with his decision to run). He'll obviously be viciously attacked from the left though.

Scott Paterno, the Dem in the family, threw his hat in the ring for Lt. Governor.

[IceSpear]

Ugh. Will Wagner ever go away?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Hemster, I've been trying to tell folks that.

Corbett should look at these examples of how governors were considered toast in their respective elections, but won reelection:

Lawton Chiles of Florida and Pete Wilson of California, both in 1994: both had horrible first terms and dreadful approval ratings, but managed to win reelection: Chiles won with the "Old He-Coon" comment directed at Jeb during one of their debates and Wilson won by good old fashioned race-baiting over Prop. 187 and abolishing racial preferences.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Scott Paterno, the Dem in the family, threw his hat in the ring for Lt. Governor.

Jay Paterno.  But who cares, this family is nothing but a bunch of rotten attention whores.

[Vega]

New here; but, to throw in my two cents...

I hope that Tom Wolfe will win the Democratic Primary; him or John Hanger.

I think it's safe to say Hanger is the most liberal of all the Democrats running in the primary.

[J. J.]

Scott Paterno, the Dem in the family, threw his hat in the ring for Lt. Governor.

Jay Paterno.  But who cares, this family is nothing but a bunch of rotten attention whores.

Who does command a following in the "T," where the last Lt. Gov democratic nominee was from.  It complicates the race.

[Keystone Phil]

Scott Paterno, the Dem in the family, threw his hat in the ring for Lt. Governor.

Jay Paterno.  But who cares, this family is nothing but a bunch of rotten attention whores.

Oh. Right. Oops. Too many of them. I remember Scott from his 2004 Congressional run.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Scott Paterno, the Dem in the family, threw his hat in the ring for Lt. Governor.

Jay Paterno.  But who cares, this family is nothing but a bunch of rotten attention whores.

Who does command a following in the "T," where the last Lt. Gov democratic nominee was from.  It complicates the race.

Of course it complicates it.  The thought of him as Lite Gov makes me want to literally puke.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Paterno won't get the LG nod

[Vega]

Wolf is mounting a early lead in the primary; leading with 40% to Schwartz's 14% and 8% for Rob McCord.

http://www.delcotimes.com/general-news/20140225/tom-wolf-pulls-ahead-in-new-dem-gubernatorial-poll

I'm shocked at how poor McCord is fairing.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, the surge was to be expected but that's more than I imagined. From literally worst in the last Harper poll to a clear front runner. That said, it won't last. The ad barrage was necessary when you're unknown but now he's the clear target. The others have the money and support to do it.

Right now, Tom Wolf is the nice guy from the countless TV ads that were seen during the seemingly countless snowstorms of the season. Give it a month or less and his negatives will be up.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, the surge was to be expected but that's more than I imagined. From literally worst in the last Harper poll to a clear front runner. That said, it won't last. The ad barrage was necessary when you're unknown but now he's the clear target. The others have the money and support to do it.

Right now, Tom Wolf is the nice guy from the countless TV ads that were seen during the seemingly countless snowstorms of the season. Give it a month or less and his negatives will be up.

I could see Wolf and Schwartz destroying each other allowing McCord to slip through.

I just hope Wagner doesn't get the nomination. I prefer Schwartz, but I'd be satisfied with anyone besides him.

[Keystone Phil]

Wolf - 36%
Schwartz (next closest) - 9%

Jack Wagner has not been mentioned in polling yet.

http://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-wolf-36-schwartz-9/55506/

[Morning in Atlas]

Congrats, Snowstalker.

'Tis a shame Hanger isn't from New Hampshire. Or any state where retail politics can work, tbh.

[J. J.]

Wolf - 36%
Schwartz (next closest) - 9%

Jack Wagner has not been mentioned in polling yet.

http://www.politicspa.com/fm-poll-wolf-36-schwartz-9/55506/

Just about to post this.  It is the ads.  They are good and he is running a lot of them.  Wagner was not in the mix, however.

[Vega]

Wagner... meh... I suppose he's better than Corbett.

He's too conservative on social issues; and I do think that if he starts to be in play for the nomination; everybody will hit him on being so conservative for a Democrat.

[windjammer]

Maybe a huge Wolf victory will allow the democrats to take both chambers , and then to pass Medicaid expansion!